Last updated: 2026-10-25
The concrete measurement points, deadlines and performance indicators raised in MIAK analyses — gathered on one page, organised into clusters, refreshed weekly. Statuses are updated from the latest press monitor; new measurement points are pulled in from new analyses. Anything missing here is itself a signal: MIAK has not yet covered it.
1. Procedural urgencies and legal deadlines
The new procedural points all grow out of one event. On 21 October Pál Fürcht, former head of the Central Chief Prosecutor’s Office of Investigation, told a parliamentary inquiry that politically motivated instructions were given in the Völner–Schadl case, which makes sealing the files, lifting secrecy obligations and putting instructions in writing preconditions of one another. If certified copies are not inventoried by 6 November, a later rule on written instructions and annual instruction statistics can only protect the future; past interference will be impossible to prove. The three points on local recall referendums follow the same logic of sequence: a bill tabled without a public concept and a constitutional stress test could turn the dissolution of local councils into a partisan weapon.
1
2026-07-31 — Cardinal-law restoration (≥5 rule clusters)
High
Delayed
Delayed: the 17th constitutional amendment and the asset-recovery act are in place, but of the five rule sets the electoral system has reportedly slipped by 18–24 months.
2
2026-09-20 — Measurement duties written into the child protection bill itself
High
Delayed
Delayed: on 13 October Parliament adopted the amendment to the child protection law by 139 votes to 51, but reports do not show whether the law requires baseline indicators to be published each year. The Prime Minister promised an entirely new child protection law for early 2027, and a government resolution of 14 October requires reports on the crisis programme in 2027 and 2028.
3
2026-10-29 — Speaker’s protocol for the hours after parliamentary immunity is lifted
High
Active
Whether the Speaker, after consulting the House Committee, issues a protocol requiring advance written notice of the planned procedural step, limiting how long a member stripped of immunity may remain in the building, and setting conditions for police action. Codification in a two-thirds law is proposed by 31 December 2026.
4
2026-10-31 — Monthly public log of decisions taken in the Prosecutor General’s name
High
Active
Whether the deputy acting with the Prosecutor General’s powers publishes a first monthly list by end-October of decisions on immunity requests, case transfers and assignments, without disclosing investigative details, and then every month.
5
2026-10-31 — Baseline data for assessing the merger of the counter-terror unit and Parliament Guard
High
Active
Will the Interior Ministry publish 2025 and 30 September 2026 figures on cost, headcount, pay, response times and incidents, together with the savings it expects? This is separate from the ex-ante impact assessment requested on 14 July: it sets the baseline for measuring results after the decision.
6
2026-10-31 — Bill on time-limited Prosecutor General nominations and a full succession chain
High
Active
Whether a bill amending the prosecution service acts is tabled in the National Assembly, giving the President of the Republic 30 days to nominate and Parliament a further 30 days to vote, and setting out a complete order of substitution. The two-thirds election rule should remain untouched.
7
2026-11-04 — Opening of secret-service files
High
Delayed
Delayed: according to the director general of the Historical Archives of the State Security Services, tens of thousands of state security records with limited access so far will become public in two phases from 4 November, after the 22 October deadline. There has been no news of the joint justice and interior procedural protocol.
8
2026-11-06 — Public sequencing impact assessment of the four housing instruments
Medium
Active
Whether a public analysis appears within 60 days on how the suspended priority investments, the lifted residency restrictions, the new housing deputy state secretary post and the floated vacancy tax interact. Success means project-level supply losses, extra demand in the 29 affected municipalities and a stated sequence, all in numbers.
9
2026-11-06 — Inventory and lock-down of the certified copies in the Völner–Schadl case
High
Active
Will the leadership of the prosecution service record where the certified copies of the seized documents are kept, since when, who has access, and whether they match the files sent to court? Met if the committee of inquiry receives an unclassified extract, access is logged and the copies are locked until the inquiry ends.
10
2026-11-10 — Irremovability guarantee in the Fundamental Law
Medium
Active
Whether a constitutional amendment is tabled providing that a constitutional office-holder’s mandate may end only on grounds already in force when the mandate began — effective from the next term, and therefore binding on the submitting majority too.
11
2026-11-17 — A government speech rule on pending criminal cases
Medium
Active
Whether the government adopts within 60 days a binding rule — covering the prime minister, ministers and spokespeople — barring them from calling suspects guilty, characterising evidence, or linking non-suspects’ names to pending cases.
12
2026-11-28 — Proportionate, graduated inquiry-committee sanctions regime
Medium
Active
Instead of million-forint fines and forced appearance, a tiered, income-proportionate sanction under judicial control; compelled appearance only as a last resort. The number of concrete legislative/institutional proposals emerging from the final reports is the measure of real output.
13
2026-11-30 — Review of how the second, November instalment can actually be spent
Medium
Active
Fulfilled when the government reviews what the second 50,000 HUF voucher arriving mid-autumn can be spent on, since it barely serves the original back-to-school purpose. The signal is a broadened, realistic list of eligible uses.
14
2026-11-30 — A deadlock rule for a prosecution service left without leadership
Medium
Active
Whether Parliament amends the two-thirds Prosecution Service Act so that, if neither a Prosecutor General nor a deputy is in office, a caretaker with limited powers is designated by a preset order of precedence, the mandate ending automatically once a new Prosecutor General is elected.
15
2026-11-30 — Code of conduct for all MPs on public demands for specific investigative steps
Medium
Active
Will Parliament adopt a resolution barring MPs from publicly demanding specific investigative measures against named individuals or threatening the prosecutors and investigators handling a case? Met if it binds government and opposition MPs alike and compliance is reviewed by a cross-party ethics panel.
16
2026-11-30 — Mandatory public committee hearing for Prosecutor General nominees
Medium
Active
Whether the act on the status of prosecutors is amended so that the competent parliamentary committee must hold a public hearing of each nominee within 15 days of the nomination and issue a written, reasoned opinion.
17
2026-11-30 — Classification waivers and a closed session for the Fürcht testimony
Medium
Active
Will the committee chair request written waivers from the classifying authorities by 30 October, and will the closed session take place by 30 November, with only vetted members if necessary? Met if the authorities issue reasoned decisions within 15 days, members without clearance receive an unclassified summary, and Szilvia Tomin is heard before the former politicians.
18
2026-12-06 — Competence map for reviewing the government commissioner office
Medium
Active
Whether a public, itemised inventory appears within 90 days showing which case types the government commissioner heading the county government office handles, on what legal basis, whether subject to instructions, and where it overlaps with local government powers.
19
2026-12-08 — Opening PISA microdata to researchers
Medium
Active
Within 90 days, is there a documented procedure giving researchers access to the anonymised student-level PISA dataset, with settlement type, school type and family background variables, in machine-readable form?
20
2026-12-15 — Written nomination rationale and nomination procedure in the Rules of Procedure
Medium
Active
By the end of the autumn session, do the parliamentary Rules of Procedure require, for posts filled by a two-thirds vote, a criteria-based nomination rationale of up to two pages per candidate, plus fixed procedural steps and deadlines?
21
2026-12-15 — Operating decree for the Redress Fund without confidentiality clauses
Medium
Active
Will the government issue the decree governing the Redress Fund, due to open on 1 January, setting out eligibility, the range of services and decision deadlines? Met if the decree bans confidentiality clauses, states that using the fund does not bar a claim for damages in court, and requires quarterly data publication.
22
2026-12-31 — 80% of “A”-category decrees raised to parliamentary statute
High
Active
Min. 80% raised to statutory rank in regular parliamentary debate, with committee debate + ex ante Constitutional Court norm-control.
23
2026-12-31 — Independent institution-head appointments (CC, SAO, Ombudsman, NEC)
High
Active
Public hearings + plenary votes with opposition consultation.
24
2026-12-31 — Public competence map before the 2027 education-governance overhaul
High
Active
Whether an itemised map appears before entry into force showing who decides today and who will decide in 2027 on financial, staffing, professional and development matters, and up to what value.
25
2026-12-31 — Settling judicial status rules in the autumn session
High
Active
Whether the autumn session establishes an effective judicial remedy against the premature termination of a court leadership mandate, and bars organisational restructuring from serving on its own as grounds for termination.
26
2026-12-31 — Sixty-day waiting period and two-stage vote on constitutional amendments
High
Active
Whether the Parliament Act and House Rules establish that no final vote on a constitutional amendment may be held within 60 days of tabling, and that the bill must pass two votes at least 30 days apart.
27
2026-12-31 — Automatic publication of child-protection inspection reports (30 days)
High
Active
Whether law requires every child-protection inspection report to be published within 30 days of closure, anonymised and machine-readable, without a data request — naming the institution and its operator. Baseline: turnaround over 24 months.
28
2026-12-31 — Public exit criteria for the state of crisis
Medium
Active
Whether exit criteria with numerical thresholds appear by 31 December. In September 2026 the state of crisis is in its eleventh year — without criteria, extension stays automatic.
29
2026-12-31 — Screening criteria and per-project decision deadlines for suspended priority investments
Medium
Active
Whether the transport, urban design, affordability and sustainability criteria for the suspended projects are published in measurable form, and whether each project gets a decision deadline ahead of the 31 December expiry.
30
2026-12-31 — Evaluation of the eight-month online hearing publicity
Medium
Active
Whether the judiciary office and the justice ministry release by year-end the data for 9 February 2026 until the shutdown: hearings streamed by case type, registrations, refusals with reasons, known abuses and running costs.
31
2026-12-31 — Mandatory immunity committee hearings with minutes and reasons for overrides
Medium
Active
Whether Parliament amends its Rules of Procedure to require a committee hearing in every immunity case, publish the minutes within 30 days of the vote, and demand written reasons whenever the plenary departs from the committee’s position.
32
2026-12-31 — Prosecutors to state the legal ground for custody within 72 hours
Medium
Active
Whether the prosecution service adopts internal rules requiring a standard statement within 72 hours, in cases of members stripped of immunity, on the statutory ground for custody and whether court-ordered coercive measures will be sought, without disclosing evidence. Target: 100 percent from the first half of 2027.
33
2026-12-31 — Published summary reasons when complaints against top officials are dismissed
Medium
Active
Will the official exercising the Prosecutor General’s powers issue an instruction requiring a public summary of reasons within eight days whenever a criminal complaint against a prime minister, minister, state secretary, MP or senior prosecutor is dismissed? Will the prosecution service also disclose the opening, legal basis and reason for any takeover of high-profile disciplinary cases?
34
2026-12-31 — Statutory external reporting channel and whistleblower protection in child care
Medium
Active
Will a bill or amendment be tabled requiring every child-protection worker to report any suspicion of abuse through an external channel within 24 hours? Met if those who report are shielded from retaliation, failure to report carries employment consequences, and a withdrawn statement does not close the child-protection inquiry.
35
2026-12-31 — Internal instruction requiring written orders from prosecutors in individual cases
Medium
Active
Will the official exercising the powers of the Prosecutor General issue an internal instruction that, in individual cases, especially on dropping or closing a case or handling records, only a written and reasoned order is valid, filed both in the case file and in a central instruction log? Met if urgent oral orders must be put in writing within 24 hours and, until then, a subordinate prosecutor need not carry out one that would end the proceedings or destroy evidence.
36
2027-01-01 — Public impact-on-identifiable-persons statement for every amendment bill
Medium
Active
Whether sponsors attach an itemised statement on whether the amendment affects an objectively identifiable group on the day it takes effect — who, in what legal relationship, with what effect. Target: 100% from H2 2027.
37
2027-01-01 — A pre-announced, public case-allocation scheme at the prosecution service
Medium
Active
Whether the prosecution service publishes, on the model of the courts’ allocation scheme, which case types go to which office and prosecutor on objective criteria, and requires written reasons on file for any departure.
38
2027-01-15 — Inventory of removal rules for the heads of independent bodies
Medium
Active
Whether the Ministry of Justice publishes a body-by-body table showing, for the heads of independent bodies, the grounds for removal, who may initiate it, when the deadline starts, who decides and what remedies exist. Worth watching: how many bodies lack a clear rule on when the deadline begins.
39
2027-01-31 — First annual “constitutional stress test” report
Medium
Active
At least 15 indicators, mandatory parliamentary debate; the institutionalised form of the annual, independent constitutional stress test (judicial independence, media pluralism, electoral integrity) raised in connection with the Sulyok case.
40
2027-01-31 — Territorial impact assessment of the restructured school day
Medium
Active
Whether the first term produces an assessment of after-school and supervision capacity in disadvantaged districts, followed by targeted compensation where shorter lessons open a care gap.
41
2027-01-31 — Quarterly compliance data on the eight-day assessment deadline
Medium
Active
Whether the first county-level quarterly release appears, showing what share of assessments for children stranded in hospital close within eight days and the median wait between discharge and placement. The target is at least 90 percent compliance by end-2027.
42
2027-01-31 — Independent expert panel on alleged interference in prosecutions, 2022 to 2026
Medium
Active
Will a law be passed setting up a five-member fact-finding panel, nominated by professional bodies and without investigative powers, with access to the prosecution service’s internal files but no remit to rule on individual criminal liability? Its public report is due by 31 October 2027.
43
2027-01-31 — Standing government template for investigating institutional abuse
Medium
Active
Will the government adopt a template for investigating institutional abuse that fixes in advance the roles of the ministries involved, deadlines for requesting records and the rules for sharing information? Met if a handover inventory of child-protection records becomes mandatory whenever an institution changes operator, and destroying records carries liability.
44
2027-03-31 — First release of county-level child protection staffing indicators
Low
Active
Are children per professional, vacancy rates, professional turnover and supervision coverage published by care type and provider, including church and foundation providers? Baseline: 17.2 per cent vacancies and turnover above 24 per cent.
45
2027-03-31 — Measuring the effect of the child-protection pay rise
Low
Active
Whether the social affairs ministry publishes, after the second pay instalment, how many staff left specialist child protection between November 2026 and February 2027, how many posts stayed vacant by institution type and county, and how many new hires arrived.
46
2027-03-31 — Public reasoning extracts for coercive-measure rulings in high-profile cases
Low
Active
Whether the judiciary office president issues uniform rules requiring a public reasoning extract on the next working day for pre-trial detention rulings in cases of high public interest.
47
2027-03-31 — Second-phase bill on aftercare standards and independent review
Low
Active
Whether the Government tables a bill setting enforceable aftercare minimums for young people leaving care, from transitional housing to a designated mentor up to age 25, attaching the Commissioner for Fundamental Rights’ opinion to the annual report and adding a two-year review clause.
48
2027-03-31 — Summary report on the 199 reports concerning 48 people
Medium
Active
Will an anonymised summary be published of the investigation into the 199 reports concerning 48 people received since the Ministry of Social and Family Affairs was set up? Met if it shows how many cases were referred to the authorities and in how many proceedings were opened.
49
2027-03-31 — Public concept and impact assessment for a local recall procedure
Medium
Active
If the issue reaches the agenda, will the responsible ministry publish a draft with a high signature threshold, time limits, a validity threshold and a new mandate only for the rest of the term, modelling at least three threshold options? The concept must also settle explicitly what happens to the directly elected mayor.
50
2027-05-09 — Institutional Health Report — annual independence measurement
Medium
Active
10+ objective indicators on the functioning of CC, SAO, prosecution, ombudsman, media authority; 2027 H1: first public report.
51
2027-05-14 — Transitional rule share drops below 30%
Medium
Active
Share of decrees temporarily preserved under the Melléthei-Barna legislation falls below 30%; benchmark of rule-of-law restoration.
52
2027-06-16 — Irreversibility of the term limit + a confirming Venice Commission opinion
Medium
Active
Whether the prime-ministerial term limit (passed 15 June 2026, signed for promulgation on 19 June) is still in force 12 months on, and whether broad consultation (a substantive Venice Commission opinion) confirms it after the fact — dissolving the charge of retroactivity and person-specific drafting.
53
2027-06-22 — Introduce annual public Institutional Health Report
Low
Active
Watch whether the prime-ministerial term limit is paired with an annual public “Institutional Health Report” measuring the real independence of the Constitutional Court, State Audit Office, prosecution and ombudsman with at least 10 objective indicators, published from 2027.
54
2027-06-30 — Cycle-independent mandate protection for constitutional offices
Medium
Active
Whether a single cardinal-level framework applies the same logic to the President, constitutional judges, the audit-office chief and the ombudsman: an exhaustive list of termination grounds, with any extension binding only from the next term.
55
2027-06-30 — Numeric minimum care standard checked by unannounced inspection
High
Active
Whether binding numeric minimum requirements are adopted against which findings such as ‘hazardous furniture’, ‘mouldy bathroom’ or ’no food available’ can be measured — and verified by unannounced inspection.
56
2027-06-30 — Independent child-rights advocacy reachable outside the institution
High
Active
Whether children in residential care demonstrably reach a child-rights advocate outside the institution — and whether the volume of reports through that channel is measured. In the cases now uncovered there was no one to turn to.
57
2027-06-30 — Repeatability test for selecting two-thirds public office holders
Low
Active
Does the annual constitutional stress test gain a dedicated chapter on selection procedures for posts filled by a two-thirds vote, asking whether the process would remain acceptable in the hands of an opposing majority? The findings should be public.
58
2027-06-30 — Public performance indicators for all 60 school districts
Low
Active
Are the four core indicators available in machine-readable form for each district: value added based on competence testing, early school leaving, teacher turnover and the share of unfilled teaching posts?
59
2027-06-30 — Annual public report on intimidation lawsuits
Low
Active
Whether the National Office for the Judiciary publishes annually how many SLAPP suits were filed over public-interest speech, how many were dismissed early and the average duration — the only way to gauge the effect of transposing Directive (EU) 2024/1069.
60
2027-06-30 — Annual coercive-measure statistics by court
Low
Active
Whether the judiciary office publishes annually, court by court, the number of detention motions, orders and refusals, the share of lighter measures, the average length of detention, and how many such cases later ended in acquittal or discontinuation.
61
2027-06-30 — Constitutional stress test and consultation before a recall bill is tabled
Low
Active
Will an independent expert panel test the draft against abuse scenarios, and will a structured public consultation with the local government associations be completed? The draft should state that only voters can start a recall, and that signature checks and the result can be challenged in court.
62
2027-07-01 — Milder tools before the term limit: campaign cap and transparent candidate selection (12 months)
Low
Active
Whether a campaign-spending cap and an open candidate-selection procedure are introduced before or instead of the term limit, testing the least intrusive effective tool first.
63
2027-07-11 — Strengthening the Digital Services Coordinator’s audit capacity
Low
Active
Watch whether Hungary’s Digital Services Coordinator (NMHH) gains dedicated, quantified capacity: staff able to run technical audits, algorithm-inspection competence, and predictable procedures. Fulfilled when expert headcount and the number of closed domestic cases rise measurably.
64
2027-07-12 — Institutionalising an annual constitutional stress test
Low
Active
An independent expert review on whether checks and balances work both ways should run on a 12-month cycle. A good sign is the first public stress test being completed within a year.
65
2027-07-17 — Judicial authorisation for national-security surveillance
Low
Active
Whether Parliament amends the national-security act so that covert intelligence gathering is authorised by a judge — or an independent body subject to subsequent judicial confirmation — as required by the Szabó and Vissy judgment.
66
2027-07-23 — Independence and performance monitoring of the prosecution service
Low
Active
Whether an annual public report appears on case duration, indictment and withdrawal rates by case type, the status of high-profile cases and the documentation of instruction powers.
67
2027-09-07 — A vacancy register before any tax on empty homes
Low
Active
Whether a 12-month measurement phase precedes any decision on a vacancy tax, with a single public definition of vacancy built on linked land registry, utility consumption and short-term rental data.
68
2027-09-09 — Regional and social breakdown of the PISA decline in the national report
Low
Active
Does the Education Authority publish a dedicated chapter showing how the 21-point drop in reading and the rise in low performers are distributed by settlement type, region and family background? That is what reveals whether this is a uniform slide or specific groups falling behind.
69
2027-09-30 — First repeat of the child protection diagnosis with the same methodology
Low
Active
Is the 2027 report published against the 2026 baseline: children persistently on the run (about 800), share returned to birth families, babies stuck in hospital (358) and time to placement, and child psychiatry waiting times?
70
2027-10-31 — Ex-post report to Parliament on the law-enforcement merger
Low
Active
Will the Interior Ministry submit to Parliament its 12-month report benchmarking cost, response times and protection incidents against the baseline? The reform succeeds if costs fall while the other two indicators do not worsen.
71
2027-12-31 — Ex post notification of closed surveillance (German model)
Low
Active
Whether statutory-deadline notification is introduced for those whose surveillance led to no action — this is what closes the remedy loop.
72
2027-12-31 — Public expert deliberation on restoring substantive review
Low
Active
Whether Parliament sets up a cross-party expert body on whether the Constitutional Court should regain a narrow, itemised power of substantive review over amendments — with minutes available within 15 days of each sitting.
73
2027-12-31 — First national report on care leavers aged 18 to 25
Low
Active
Is an anonymised, aggregate report produced on five dimensions: housing, employment or education, health and addiction treatment, criminal justice involvement, and child protection involvement of their own children?
74
2027-12-31 — Annual statistics on prosecutorial instructions and a statutory written-form rule
Low
Active
Will the prosecution service publish the annual number of instructions given in individual cases, by case type, and how many were in writing? Met if the written share reaches 100 per cent and the rule is written into the cardinal (two-thirds) Act on the prosecution service in the first half of 2027.
75
2027-12-31 — Public register of council roll-call votes and changes of political group
Low
Active
Will the local government digitalisation platform get a module where councils publish roll-call votes, group membership and the dates of group switches in machine-readable form? The yardstick is what share of settlements publish this data by the end of 2027.
76
2028-01-11 — Proportionate, SME-friendly default protection for minors
Low
Active
Watch whether infinite scroll, autoplay, and addiction-tuned notifications are off by default for minors, with size-proportionate guidance separating large platforms from small domestic providers. Fulfilled when coverage on big platforms hits 100% while SME burdens stay distinct.
77
2028-06-22 — Extend term limits to constitutional offices with stress-test
Low
Active
Watch whether cyclic term limits extend to key independent offices and whether an annual constitutional “stress test” is established. Fulfilment is signalled by a public, yearly stress test and depoliticised appointments.
78
from the next competence-reshuffling decree — Public competence map for every competence-reshuffling decree
High
Active
Whether a public competence map and short impact note accompanies every competence-reshuffling decree, retroactively including the one that moved intelligence oversight. The gazette text alone does not show who oversees what.
79
before the first hearing — Separating committee work from the criminal proceedings
High
Active
Whether the committee sets down in its rules that a hearing does not substitute for criminal proceedings, and how it handles documents touched by an ongoing investigation. Without it, even the final report’s legislative yield becomes contestable.
80
during the parliamentary debate — Judicial reservation for every asset deprivation
High
Active
Whether an amendment establishes that only a court may order asset deprivation, after a substantive evidentiary procedure. Without it, confiscation absent proof of an offence touches the constitutional core of property protection.
81
before the final vote — Published impact assessment benchmarked against the Strasbourg standard
High
Active
Whether a published legislative impact assessment measuring the new provision against the European Court of Human Rights’ property-protection case law is produced before the final vote. A later adverse ruling costs more than a prior comparison.
82
in the next parliamentary session — Parliamentary scrutiny and a public selection protocol for senior posts
Medium
Active
Whether the National Security Committee’s scrutiny is strengthened, and how many deputy-state-secretary and agency-head appointments follow a published scored framework. The benchmark already exists: the tax-authority head selection set it.
83
from the next extension decision — Mandatory written reasoning for every further extension
High
Active
Whether extension decrees come with public reasoning backed by indicators. Proposed target: 100 per cent of decrees issued from 2027.
84
in the first half of the government term — Structural separation of intelligence oversight from government communication
Medium
Active
Whether intelligence oversight is organisationally separated from government communication duties. Holding both in one hand was among the most sharply criticised structural flaws of the previous term.
85
five years — Sunset date and mandatory parliamentary review
Low
Active
Whether the new provision gets a five-year sunset clause and a mandatory parliamentary review. Extraordinary instruments becoming permanent is a recurring pattern of the past decade.
86
end-2026 — Constitutional stress-test report on the public-law conflict
Medium
Active
Whether an independent expert report is produced by end-2026 on how the checks-and-balances system performed in the head-of-state vs. majority conflict, and whether the precedent would block a future, opposite-direction concentration of power.
87
Autumn 2026 (constitution-making) — Structural, parity-based nomination guarantee for filling key positions
Medium
Active
Whether the constitution-making promised for the autumn introduces parity-based or qualified-consensus nomination for the heads of the Constitutional Court, the judiciary and the regulatory bodies, so that no single two-thirds majority can pack them, and whether the process runs with a multi-month debate.
88
By autumn 2026 — Fixing the procedural standard for the next presidential election
Medium
Active
Whether the House Rules fix the steps for the next presidential election: a minimum interval between the nomination deadline and the vote, a mandatory public committee hearing, and publication of valid nominations before the vote.
89
June 2026 (2nd half) — Anti-corruption legislative package tabled before the National Assembly
High
Active
Whether the structural-prevention anti-corruption package the government announced on 5 June 2026 is tabled and put on the National Assembly’s agenda; and whether the text builds on preventive logic (procurement transparency, machine-readable asset data, whistleblower protection, an independent anti-corruption authority) or merely on punitive logic.
90
Spring 2027 — Annual public surveillance statistics
Medium
Active
Whether the number of national-security authorisations is published annually, broken down by service and legal basis — individual cases stay secret, aggregate figures should not.
91
2027 school year — Competition-based, professional selection of vocational-centre heads
Medium
Active
Whether the new single heads of vocational training centres are selected through a public, documented professional competition on pre-set competence criteria, excluding political influence.
92
July 2027 — Annual constitutional stress test for the whole transition period
Medium
Active
Whether an annually repeated, independent and public review starts on whether the system of checks and balances would block a hypothetical concentration of power under the new constitutional set-up.
93
From expiry of the deadline — Removal proceedings as a last resort — with procedural self-restraint
High
Active
Whether a pending constitutional court petition is awaited before removal proceedings begin, and whether the full reasoning of the removal motion is public.
94
Before publication — Uniform statutory access-criteria framework with a data-protection filter for the agent files
Medium
Active
Whether a uniform, public statutory access-criteria framework appears before 22 October that anonymises the sensitive data of non-public third parties by NAIH standards.
95
Before the final vote — Ex ante constitutional stress test and awaiting the Venice Commission opinion (17th amendment)
High
Active
Whether the sharpest elements of the 17th amendment (Sulyok’s removal, 70+ Constitutional Court justices) are subjected to independent constitutional scrutiny, and whether the Venice Commission’s opinion is awaited and its recommendations built into the final text.
96
Within 12 months of adoption — Mandatory ex post review of every fast-tracked law
Medium
Active
Whether every law adopted via fast-track gets a public ex post impact review within 12 months (did it meet its goal, how many amendments it needed).
97
Procedural (open) — Re-tabling the case after the recusal of the constitutional justices
High
Active
After seven constitutional justices recused themselves on 19 June 2026 and the Monday (22 June) hearing was struck from the agenda, whether the motion on the head of state’s removability returns to the Court’s agenda and ends with a quorate panel and a reasoned decision — or stays indefinitely unresolved due to the lack of a quorum.
98
Procedural — 30 days instead of five — At least 30-day consultation for amendments affecting constitutional offices
High
Active
Watch whether constitutional amendments touching the status of the president, constitutional courts and independent institutions get a mandatory minimum 30-day genuine consultation instead of the planned five days.
99
First sitting day + 10 days — Formalising public consultation on the nomination
Medium
Active
Whether the announced public consultation gets fixed rules: a public platform, a summary of submissions, and documentation of what the parliamentary groups took on board.
100
Ongoing — Sharp separation of general norms and individual decisions in law-making
Medium
Active
Whether constitutional-level law-making requires a public impact assessment examining whether the proposal really creates a general rule, whom it affects and how reversible it is.
101
On entry into force (promulgation + 15 days) — Document security and independent archival custody when the office is abolished
High
Active
What share of the office’s records is placed, documented and inventoried, into independent archival custody (target: 100 percent), preventing records from disappearing amid the merger’s disorder.
102
Before the nomination — Public, criteria-based nomination of the next prosecutor general
High
Active
Whether the acting head of state publishes the nomination criteria beforehand, and whether the candidate answers at a public parliamentary hearing — including on procedural guarantees in pending high-profile cases.
103
Legislative cycle — Children’s-rights reform: institutionalising a specialist ombudsman + Participation Group
Medium
Active
Whether a standalone children’s-rights specialist ombudsman and an independent monitoring role are set up, whether the Equal Treatment Authority is restored, and whether the competent ministry gives a mandatory, reasoned public response to the recommendations of the Children and Youth Participation Group (within 60 days, even in case of rejection).
104
Within the legislative cycle — Strengthened cross-party parliamentary oversight of the intelligence services
Medium
Active
Whether the parliamentary National Security Committee gains substantive information and investigation powers accessible to the opposition too, and whether independent review of special intelligence tools is operational.
105
Legislative cycle — Public-law renewal: a public nomination procedure BEFORE removals
Medium
Active
In how many of the renewed public-law offices (Constitutional Court, Kúria, prosecution, head-of-state circle) a statutory, depoliticised, professional nomination procedure precedes the actual replacement; target: 100%, so that the renewal does not become a loyalty-based refill.
106
Legislative cycle — Untouched competences during the renewal (no institutional renaming or veto-stripping)
Medium
Active
How many competences are altered or how many institutions are renamed during the public-law renewal to bypass a removal; target: 0 — no stripping of the head of state’s veto, no institutional-renaming trick to dodge the bound procedure.
107
Concurrent with the appointments — Merit-based, vetting-bound selection of intelligence chiefs
Medium
Active
Whether the new intelligence chiefs are selected on public, pre-set professional competence criteria and mandatory pre-appointment security vetting, not on political loyalty.
108
Before the next constitutional-court election — Consensus-based constitutional-judge nomination and mandatory public hearing
High
Active
Whether nomination starts with minuted parliamentary consultation and whether candidates’ impartiality and professional fitness are tested at a public hearing — the mandate runs for twelve years.
109
In every fast-tracked act — Review clauses and a public proposal register in crisis legislation
High
Active
Whether every fast-tracked market-structure provision justified by the crisis gets a mandatory 18-month review clause and a public register showing on whose proposal it entered the text.
110
By the day of the vote — Point-by-point written answers to the constitutional objections
High
Active
Whether a public working paper citing specific legal provisions appears by the day of the vote on which constitutional rule makes the new head of state’s election valid.
111
From the Venice Commission opinion — Awaiting the Venice Commission’s opinion in the head-of-state case
High
Active
Whether the Venice Commission issues its (urgency-procedure) opinion on the removability of the head of state, and whether the Hungarian decision takes it into account; whether the head-of-state question is settled solely within the removal procedure under the Fundamental Law (two-thirds + Constitutional Court), not by ultimatum.
112
Venice Commission opinion + 60 days — Binding incorporation of the Venice Commission opinion
High
Active
Whether a public compliance table is produced for every recommendation of the October opinion (recommendation → accepted/rejected → reasoning), with a parliamentary committee hearing.
113
Before final vote — Mandatory impact assessment for the FX-loan suspension
Medium
Active
Whether a public legislative impact assessment is prepared before the final vote on suspending ongoing FX-loan lawsuits and enforcement actions (who wins/loses, fiscal and legal effects).
114
Before final vote — Awaiting the Constitutional Court interpretive ruling before the amendment
High
Delayed
Whether the Constitutional Court interpretive ruling is issued before the final vote on the contested constitutional amendment, and whether the majority and the head of state commit to accepting it in advance.
115
Annual cycle — Institutionalising the reversibility test for major institutional steps
Medium
Active
Whether it becomes standard to ask of every step touching checks and balances: could a future majority reverse it — and if not, whether broad consensus should be required.
116
Immediate practice — Mandatory public naming of the legal basis for refusing an appointment
High
Active
Whether the President’s Office — and the Speaker’s Office when acting as deputy — states, for every refused appointment, which limb of Article 9(6) it relies on: a missing statutory condition, or a serious disturbance to the democratic operation of the state.
117
Q1 2027 — Annual report on constitutional-amendment practice
Low
Active
Whether an independent expert body produces a public, quantified annual report on constitutional-amendment practice: days between submission and final vote, whether an impact assessment was made, whether the amendment is a general norm or touches an identifiable set of persons, and whether it triggered international proceedings.
118
From the next constitutional-amendment bill — Constitutional stress test before every Fundamental Law amendment
High
Active
Whether the House Rules require that substantive debate on a constitutional amendment may begin only once an independent expert analysis of abuse scenarios has been published within 15 days of tabling.
119
Within 5 working days of publication — Two-page standard summary for Constitutional Court rulings
Medium
Active
Whether the Court issues a two-page companion summary with every substantive ruling — the question, who asked it, the decision, its reasoning, and the express limits of its scope.
120
By the final vote on the package — A single prime ministerial salary formula regardless of mandate
Medium
Active
Whether the law sets one multiplier for the prime minister’s salary whether or not the PM holds a parliamentary seat, with a separate transparent offsetting rule and a mandatory public review every five years.
121
2027 H1 — Effect-size evidence annex for the announced education programmes
Medium
Active
Before public consultation on the new National Core Curriculum begins, does each of the five announced programmes have a public one-page annex on the international evidence, the expected effect size and how success will be measured?
122
By the midpoint of the first five-year term — Performance-based rule for renewing school-district director mandates
Low
Active
Is it set out in advance that renewing the mandate of up to five years depends on background-adjusted district indicators, with published reasoning and a developmental rather than punitive mid-term review?
123
Within 12 months of entry into force — A case-type exception list instead of blanket abolition
Low
Active
Whether the government tables a narrower re-regulating bill within a year that removes witness hearings and minors’ cases from online publicity but keeps verdict delivery and cases involving public bodies online.
124
By the next Constitutional Court vacancy — A two-stage public suitability screen before nomination
Medium
Active
Whether an independent professional panel — nominated by judicial self-government, law faculties, the bar and the ombudsman — is set up to score Constitutional Court candidates against published criteria, with per-candidate reasoning.
125
By the end of the current parliamentary session — House-rules procedure for filling Constitutional Court vacancies
Medium
Active
Whether the House rules require every parliamentary group to state its position in writing on shortlisted candidates, and attach a procedural consequence to walkouts — this time there was none.
126
In the first half of 2027 — Public-law selection procedures inside the constitutional stress test
Low
Active
Whether the annual constitutional stress test extends to public-law selection procedures, asking one question: could the same procedure be repeated by an opposing two-thirds majority without damaging the institution.
127
In the first half of 2027 — A conflict-of-interest register and automatic bias screening at the prosecution service
Low
Active
Whether a conflict-of-interest register for senior prosecutors is created, separate from the asset-declaration system, against which the allocation system automatically checks case participants, obliging the responsible head to declare on a hit.
128
During 2027, by amending the prosecution act — An expanded, substantive report to Parliament and annual case statistics
Low
Active
Whether the amendment expands the prosecutor general’s reporting duty with public statistics by case type: processing times, cases closed by limitation, changes of supervision, recusals and disciplinary proceedings.
129
Before the final vote on bill T/680 — Child-protection targets and an annual reporting clause in the Child Protection Act
High
Active
Whether an amendment writes into the act a yearly ministerial report to Parliament, due each 31 May, plus statutory 2029 targets for at least three indicators: long-term runaways, children stranded in hospital and unfilled professional posts.
130
August 2027 — Rule-based irreversibility safeguards in the new university governance act
Low
Active
Whether the law replacing the KEKVA foundations protects procedures rather than people: binding conflict-of-interest rules and public selection criteria for governing boards, peer-reviewed research funding through the national research office, and a mandatory public impact assessment before any of these guarantees can be changed.
131
Immediately, from the next immunity request — Separate public reasoning for every immunity waiver request
High
Active
Whether the Prosecutor General’s Office publishes, for each request to lift immunity, its own statement of reasons covering the legal classification, the history of the case and why suspension is needed now. Target: 100 percent from the first half of 2027.
132
Spring 2027 parliamentary session — First annual police report to Parliament on protecting the Parliament building
Medium
Active
Will the Riot Police and the counter-terror unit (TEK) report to Parliament’s standing committee on law enforcement on police measures taken inside the Parliament building, camera placement principles and incidents involving MPs? Will the Speaker be consulted before the head of the directorate guarding the building is appointed?
133
By the committee of inquiry’s final report — Evidence labels in the final report of the law-enforcement abuse inquiry
Medium
Active
Will the parliamentary committee of inquiry classify every claim in its final report as backed by documents, resting only on witness testimony, or denied by the body concerned? Met if questions touching on pending criminal cases are taken in pre-announced closed sessions, and the prosecution service’s leadership clarifies in writing how committee testimony relates to the ongoing disciplinary proceedings.
2. Cabinet first-100-day actions
The cluster’s balance worsened again this week: both the ministerial strategic action plans and the ambulance-service leadership selection lapsed without a document. The remaining points therefore no longer measure the pacing of the first 100 days but whether the cabinet retrofits the public reasoning it skipped — the transparency point on deputy-state-secretary appointments in cluster 1 is the first test of that.
1
2026-10-31 — Cabinet committee decisions subject to the same transparency as full government
High
Active
Will the government’s amended rules of procedure require that cabinet committee agendas are published in advance, a summary follows within seven days, and every committee decision appears in the Official Gazette marked with the committee that took it? Will they rule out committees deciding individual subsidies behind closed doors?
2
2027-04-30 — Average hospital waiting list length −10% (NEAK baseline)
Medium
Active
At least 10% reduction in average hospital waiting list length vs. April 2026 NEAK baseline — element of Hegedűs Zsolt’s 100-day health priority matrix.
3
2027-04-30 — Slowing teacher turnover at the 100 most disadvantaged primary schools
Medium
Active
Whether Lannert Judit’s professional-autonomy framework reduces teacher turnover at the 100 most disadvantaged primary schools — Schleicher-style KPI.
4
2027-05-09 — Independent 12-month professional evaluation board — first report
Medium
Active
MTA + Chamber of Engineers + Fiscal Council + Asset Recovery Office four-member evaluation board for each ministry; publicly submitted report + ministerial rebuttal.
5
2027-05-16 — Public administration competency test institutionalised
Medium
Active
Three-round competency test institutionalised for the public administration state-secretary layer (within 12 months); panel with independent experts; civil-service / private median pay convergence to 70% over 5 years (plan published).
6
First 100 days — Merit-based, public selection system for the top posts
High
Active
Regarding the succession of the top officials replaced this week (national police chief, Budapest police chief, OMSZ director-general, 3 ambassadors): what share of the law-enforcement, healthcare and diplomatic top appointments run through a pre-advertised public competition with fixed competency criteria (open-competition rate).
7
Legislative cycle — Strengthening law-enforcement internal oversight and an independent complaints board
Medium
Active
Whether law-enforcement internal oversight is strengthened (rotational audit, asset-declaration monitoring, public code of ethics, an independent complaints board with civil participation); and whether institutional-continuity metrics (clearance rate, ambulance response time) do not deteriorate during the leadership changes.
3. EU obligations and accession processes
The cluster’s focus has moved from the EUR 4.2 billion released in October to Ukraine funding and the next budget framework. The Commission will only present options for covering Ukraine’s 2027 funding gap in November, while António Costa wants a deal on the multiannual budget at the 26 November summit. Because the post-summit report on Hungary’s envelope and the Horizon condition list were both missed, the government heads into the November bargaining without having published either the extra cohesion money it wants or its position on Ukraine funding. The new points — handling Ukraine funding without using it as a bargaining chip, and conditional support for an EU Black Sea budget line — test whether the two files stay separate or become hostages to each other.
1
2026-09-30 — Scenario-band allocation modelling for the cohesion and farm envelopes
High
Delayed
Delayed: on 22 October European Parliament committees voted for higher envelopes than the Commission proposed, and Costa is pushing for a deal in November. On 20 October the Prime Minister tied any agreement on the joint budget to settling the migration fine, but no scenario-based Hungarian allocation estimate has been published.
2
2026-10-01 — Conditionality treated as a planning parameter, not a bargaining chip
Medium
Delayed
Delayed: the Prime Minister presented the headline figures of the 2027 budget on 19 October, but the bill had still not been tabled by 25 October and is now expected at the end of the month. On 20 October the finance minister already assumed, citing the agreement with the EU, that the daily one million euro migration fine will end, so how conditional EU items are treated can only be checked once the bill is tabled.
3
2026-10-25 — Written government position on Ukraine’s 2027 EU funding
High
Delayed
Delayed: the Commission will only present its options for financing Ukraine in November, and according to Costa a decision on the roughly 70 billion euro gap for 2027 could come at the 26–27 November summit. By 25 October no written Hungarian government position had been published on joining a common loan or on the budget exposure involved.
4
2026-10-30 — Transit-country coalition and a Hungarian scenario for internal border checks
Medium
Active
Whether the foreign ministry initiates talks with Austria, Slovenia, Croatia and Slovakia on the impact-assessment requirement, and whether a domestic scenario is prepared for checks reintroduced against Hungary.
5
2026-10-30 — Open competition for the foreign-affairs institute’s head and a published doctrine
Medium
Active
Whether the post is filled through an open competition on published professional criteria with a mandate not aligned to the electoral cycle — and whether a short foreign-policy doctrine is published.
6
2026-10-31 — Regional Danube water-sharing initiative for drought periods
Medium
Active
Whether Hungary submits a written proposal within the ICPDR for a drought-period water-sharing protocol: shared real-time data, prior notification of cooling-related abstractions and a rapid consultation procedure.
7
2026-10-31 — A mandatory territorial minimum quota in the single national plan
Medium
Active
Whether the government argues in Council that the single-plan rules must reserve a mandatory minimum share for the least developed regions, counting rural and cohesion spending together.
8
2026-10-31 — A mandatory cap and small-farm priority in CAP income support
Medium
Active
Whether the government backs a per-farm cap and degressivity as binding EU rules, and whether funds freed above the cap stay in the national envelope, redirected to smaller farms.
9
2026-10-31 — Public costing of the Covid-loan repayment reschedule
Medium
Active
Whether the government publishes what spreading principal repayment to 2058 would cost Hungary in extra interest — an issue-based alignment with the southern member states is only meaningful with that number on the table.
10
2026-11-01 — Public, monthly updated list of EU infringement cases
High
Active
Will the government publish a machine-readable list of every open infringement case against Hungary and every unimplemented EU court ruling, showing for each the current stage, next deadline, lead ministry, planned remedy and the estimated financial exposure under Article 260?
11
2026-11-01 — Government resolution accepting the Komstroy ruling in the MOL case
High
Active
Will a public government resolution confirm that Hungary accepts the primacy of EU law in intra-EU investment disputes, and will the state, as shareholder and with due regard for minority investors, push MOL to suspend its enforcement proceedings in the United States?
12
2026-11-05 — V4+ transparency initiative and Western Balkans partner programme
Medium
Active
(a) shared procurement/asset-declaration standards with Czech-Polish-Slovak partners; (b) Western Balkans programme bundle; (c) KP24 ‘Year of EU/NATO’ annual review week first session on the January 2027 agenda.
13
2026-11-05 — Restored OBT-OBH relationship and judicial independence
High
Active
OBT powers restored to pre-2011 level; judicial appointment-promotion via independent professional panel; full transposition of latest Venice Commission recommendations.
14
2026-11-05 — Assigning domestic responsibility for triggering the DSA crisis instruments
Medium
Active
Whether the government designates which Hungarian body is responsible for initiating the Article 36 and 48 crisis instruments of the digital services regulation, and by what procedure the signal reaches the Board and the Commission.
15
2026-11-05 — Written Hungarian position on veto limits in the enlargement strategy
High
Active
Whether the Government sets out in writing, and presents to the National Assembly’s European Affairs Committee, that it supports temporary limits on new members’ veto rights only with a fixed expiry date, equal application to all newcomers and safeguards that also cover minority rights.
16
2026-11-10 — Hungarian basket-level impact assessment of the pesticide mirror clause
Medium
Active
Whether the agriculture administration publishes an impact assessment recalculated for Hungarian production and consumption in three layers: exposure by product group, domestic substitution capacity, and the consumer-price effect by income decile — with a machine-readable methodology.
17
2026-11-11 — EPPO effective accession date
High
Active
Hungary’s operational EPPO accession (within 180 days); from the 14 May cabinet declaration of intent to actual membership.
18
2026-11-13 — Timetabled action plan for the conditions on still-frozen EU funds
High
Active
Will the government publish an action plan for the enabling conditions tied to the roughly 3.5 billion euros still frozen? For each condition it should show the amount at stake, the Commission’s objection, the legal change needed, the lead ministry and the date the bill goes to Parliament, plus an independent legal check on whether the child-protection amendment fully implements the April ruling of the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU).
19
2026-11-16 — EU-fund absorption rate 35% (EUR 34 bn envelope)
High
Active
Of the EUR 34 bn envelope, min. 35% contracted by month 6; 65% contracted + 25% paid out by 16 May 2027.
20
2026-11-16 — Hungarian initiative for an EU register of Council carve-out requests
Medium
Active
Whether Hungary tables a proposal making it mandatory to record member-state carve-out requests raised in sanctions negotiations and publish them once the act is adopted. Target: at least five co-sponsoring states by mid-2027.
21
2026-11-17 — Venice Commission substantive opinion on the constitutional amendment
Medium
Active
The Council of Europe Venice Commission’s substantive opinion on the tabled constitutional amendment (8-year PM term limit, abolition of the Sovereignty Protection Office) — an independent professional yardstick.
22
2026-11-17 — Legal status of ETS2 and a targeting plan for the Social Climate Fund
High
Active
Will the government publish what the summit conclusions actually say about the second EU emissions trading system (ETS2), what legislative step is under way and what start date currently applies in law? Alongside that, will it set out how the Social Climate Fund will be targeted, with expected extra costs and compensation by income decile and region?
23
2026-11-20 — Parliamentary hearing on Hungary’s EU budget goals before the 26 November summit
High
Active
Will the government appear before Parliament’s European Affairs Committee to set out the exact size of Hungary’s envelope, the cuts it will not accept in any package, the new EU own resources it can live with, and how it keeps the migration fine separate from the budget bargain?
24
2026-11-27 — Ukraine funding vote not used as a bargaining chip
Medium
Active
Will the EU settle Ukraine’s roughly EUR 70 billion funding gap for 2027 at the 26–27 November summit without a Hungarian blockade, keeping it apart from the disputes over the migration fine, the next multiannual budget and EU funds? Met if any Hungarian opt-out leaves the other member states free to proceed and the fiscal impact of any commitment is set out under the debt-sustainability framework.
25
2026-11-28 — Mandatory public impact assessment before joining a deportation-centre scheme
High
Active
Whether a public prior impact assessment precedes any accession decision — full per-person cost against the domestic procedure, expected return rate and litigation risk, in figures.
26
2026-11-30 — MOL-JANAF capacity expansion contract signed
Medium
Active
Krk terminal Hungarian quota-increase agreement; diversification framework act.
27
2026-11-30 — Enshrining the conditionality commitments in statute
Medium
Active
Will a register of the commitments underpinning the unfreezing, showing the legal level of each, appear before the Council decides, and will the government table a bill to put into law those that rest only on decrees or temporary rules, including the reforms of the public-interest trust foundations?
28
2026-11-30 — A Hungarian EU-funds payback study with an open methodology
Medium
Active
Whether a preliminary range estimate, commissioned by the finance ministry from an independent institute, shows the extra growth EU funds generated by county and how much flowed back to firms in net-contributor countries. The full study with open model and data is proposed for 31 March 2027.
29
2026-11-30 — Conditional support for an EU Black Sea budget envelope
Medium
Active
Whether the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs prepare, before the next negotiating round, a Hungarian impact sheet on the Black Sea envelope in the next multiannual financial framework (MFF) and present it to Parliament’s EU affairs committee. It should set three conditions: no money taken from cohesion funds, spending through joint and open procurement, and coverage of the lower Danube.
30
2026-12-12 — Public list of transitional periods Hungary seeks in Ukraine’s accession
Medium
Active
Whether, within 60 days of the internal market cluster opening on 13 October, the Government holds structured consultations with farm and haulage associations and publishes a data-backed list of the product groups and services for which Hungary seeks transitional periods or safeguard clauses, and for how long.
31
2026-12-15 — Public-law procedure for accession settled in advance
High
Active
Whether it is fixed in advance that consent to be bound requires a parliamentary decision rather than a government decree, so public debate precedes the decision instead of following it.
32
End of 2026 — MFF deal and preserving the real value of the cohesion envelope
Medium
Active
Watch whether an MFF agreement is reached by the Council’s end-2026 target and whether the 2028–2034 cohesion envelope stays at or above the ~EUR 376bn 2021–2027 level in real terms.
33
2026-12-31 — Public negotiating principles on farm and cohesion transition
Medium
Active
Watch whether the government publishes negotiating principles by year-end on phasing in direct farm payments and on cohesion-envelope safeguards. Fulfilled when the Hungarian mandate puts both budget protections in writing.
34
2026-12-31 — Transparency framework for Hungarian role in Ukraine recovery
Medium
Active
Watch whether the government sets a transparency framework in advance for any Ukraine-reconstruction role touching Hungarian budget or state guarantees, with public project sheets, beneficial owners, and cost-benefit analysis. Fulfilled when all such projects start with public data sheets.
35
2026-12-31 — Annual public Coalition Map for EU files
Medium
Active
Whether the government publishes which EU files it pursues with which partners and to what end — and, in retrospect, what it achieved. The relaunched V4 agenda is the first test.
36
2026-12-31 — A project-level, machine-readable public-funds dashboard for the whole envelope
High
Active
Whether a single public interface shows the entire EU funding envelope at project level — beneficiary, tax number, contracted and disbursed amounts, deadline, output indicator and its status — with a downloadable dataset.
37
2026-12-31 — Reversibility review of every EU-conditioned safeguard
High
Active
Whether the October–December legislative phase produces an analysis of what share of EU-conditioned institutional safeguards rests on statutes amendable by simple majority.
38
2026-12-31 — Pre-set performance and release criteria in the MFF negotiation
Medium
Active
Whether the government argues in Council that every rule-of-law condition in the 2028–2034 framework comes with a public, verifiable list of performance and release criteria from adoption, graduated suspension and fixed decision deadlines.
39
2026-12-31 — Inflation-correction clause in the 2028–2034 multiannual financial framework
Medium
Active
Will the government, together with the Friends of Cohesion, push for a rule-based inflation-correction clause and see it written into the final deal targeted for Christmas? Met if the framework ceilings can be adjusted to actual prices at the mid-term review whenever EU inflation persistently exceeds the 2 per cent deflator.
40
2026-12-31 — Itemised account of EU funds lost for good in 2024–2025
Medium
Active
Will the government publish, by programme and by year, how much was lost for good and how much was reallocated, which projects were dropped and what the domestic budget paid to replace them, together with every EU funding deadline for the next 24 months? Success means the gap between the EUR 6.3 billion suspended and the EUR 4.2 billion released is fully explained, and the State Audit Office (ÁSZ) audits the account.
41
2026-12-31 — A common EU audit minimum for flexible national envelopes
Medium
Active
In the Council talks on the rules for partnership plans, will Hungary push for a common error-rate method, independence requirements for audit authorities, on-the-spot audit rights for the European Court of Auditors and quarterly project-level data? Success means these end up in the final rules.
42
2027-01-01 — Automatic ex-post audit of emergency procurement exemptions
Medium
Active
Whether automatic ex-post audits of emergency procurement exemptions start in 2027, applied retroactively to 2020 and to the current government’s own procedures, with published findings.
43
2027-01-01 — Full-lifecycle open data for every EU-funded project
Medium
Active
Whether the full project lifecycle — from call to ex-post outcome measurement — moves into machine-readable open data, and whether projects above HUF 1bn get a published ex-ante impact assessment.
44
2027-01-31 — On-time delivery of the DMA structural obligations
Low
Active
Whether the January 2027 data-sharing obligation and platform opening are met on time — for the Hungarian digital market and AI start-ups these are what break down entry barriers.
45
2027-01-31 — Itemised RRF closing account and updated deficit path
Medium
Active
Within 30 days of the Commission’s decision, will the government publish, milestone by milestone, the Commission’s finding and the amount paid or withheld, the extra cost of projects continued from domestic funds, and the impact on the 2026 and 2027 deficit path? Will it say whether any shortfall is covered by borrowing, spending cuts or revenue?
46
2027-02-28 — Exit clause, notice period and annual public report in the agreement
Medium
Active
Whether any signed agreement carries an exit clause, a notice period and an annual public reporting duty, including guaranteed access for independent human-rights monitoring.
47
2027-03-31 — Itemised, machine-readable register of pandemic procurements
Medium
Active
Whether itemised data — price, supplier, actual use — is available for at least 95% of the 19,002 ventilators by 31 March 2027, so the estimated damage of hundreds of billions can be backed by figures.
48
2027-03-31 — Itemised reporting and back-check of the December EU inflow
Low
Active
Does the Finance Ministry disclose, programme by programme, how much RRF money was reimbursed in December and how that compares with the HUF 2,186.9 billion pre-financed in August? The ex-post check is due by the end of Q1 2027.
49
2027-03-31 — Public condition-to-funding exposure map, twice a year
Low
Active
Whether the government publishes twice yearly a machine-readable breakdown of how much EU funding hangs on each condition by programme and beneficiary type, what is met, what is pending and by when.
50
2027-03-31 — Adoption of the legal aid amendment required by the EU directive
Medium
Active
Will the government table by February 2027, and Parliament pass by the end of March, an amendment aligning Hungarian law with Directive 2016/1919 — guaranteeing counsel without a formal request, a decision before the first interrogation and uniform means-testing?
51
2027-03-31 — District-level place of final use for every project in the released envelope
Medium
Active
Whether, for all projects under the EUR 4.2 billion envelope, the place of final use is published at district level, with a list of affected districts for network investments, and whether the Government sets the district-level outcome indicators it expects for each programme.
52
2027-04-30 — Conditionality fund release ratio ≥50% (≥EUR 10 bn)
High
Active
How much of the ~EUR 19-22 bn Hungarian EU funds frozen in April 2026 became accessible; target: ≥50% (≥EUR 10 bn); 100% transparency of Hungarian EU Council votes.
53
2027-04-30 — First voluntary follow-up report on the released EU funds
Low
Active
Whether, six months after the release, the Government reports on the same indicators to the Commission, the Council and the relevant European Parliament committees. Worth watching: whether the share of single-bid tenders falls from its baseline.
54
2027-05-01 — EU Justice Scoreboard perceived judicial independence +5 pp
Medium
Active
Upward movement of Hungary’s 2026 position (~30%) in the EU Justice Scoreboard perceived judicial independence indicator; the 90-180 day OBT-OBH reform’s outcome metric.
55
2027-05-25 — EU-fund absorption ratio ≥50% of the HUF 12 trillion
High
Active
From the signing of the political agreement, how much of the HUF 12 000 bn was actually drawn down in 12 months.
56
2027-06-30 — Frozen EU funds release rate ≥70%
Medium
Active
European Commission RRF tracker; common outcome variable of the EU accession cluster.
57
2027-06-30 — Jurisdiction-delimitation map before the second legislative package
Medium
Active
Whether a public jurisdiction map is produced before the 2027 criminal-procedure amendments are tabled: which body acts for each case type and offence — the national prosecution service or the EPPO — and what happens where both could.
58
2027-07-30 — Product-group Hungarian agricultural impact assessment on three scenarios
Low
Active
Whether a public impact assessment is produced for at least five product groups (grain, oilseeds, poultry, eggs, honey) under three scenarios, with regional price, farm and employment estimates.
59
2027 — Recoverable (clawback) EU-funds monitoring through 2027
Medium
Active
Watch whether every released EU project gets a public data sheet, 100% project checks and independent cost-benefit analysis above HUF 500m become mandatory, and clawback is built into every contract. Fulfilment signal: actual recovery cases triggered by missed targets.
60
2027-12-31 — Voluntary credibility programme for Hungary’s EU audit authority
Low
Active
Alongside Hungary’s partnership plan, will the government commit to a peer review of the national audit authority by another member state’s authority every two years, an annual published error-rate estimate, and a public hearing of the authority’s annual report in the relevant parliamentary committee?
61
2028-06-30 — Independent counterfactual impact evaluation of the released funds
Low
Active
Whether an independent research institute publishes, with its raw data, an evaluation comparing supported districts with similar unsupported ones, and whether its findings feed into negotiations on the 2028–2034 EU national and regional partnership plan.
62
2030 — Raise least-developed districts’ cohesion share above 25%
Low
Active
Watch whether, alongside mandatory machine-readable project records and a clawback mechanism, the funding share of the most disadvantaged districts moves from today’s 12–15% toward the 25% target.
63
before large-scale disbursements begin — Pre-set corruption-risk indicators for the spending phase
Medium
Active
Whether risk indicators — single-bid tender share, value of contract amendments, winner concentration — are fixed before large-scale disbursements start. A benchmark set afterwards is not a benchmark.
64
before the agreement is signed — Negotiating-mandate briefing on the asylum penalty
Medium
Active
Whether Parliament receives a briefing on the negotiating mandate before any deal on waiving the EUR 1m daily penalty. Proposed target: the daily penalty ending by H1 2027.
65
10–15 years (long term) — Closing all 33 accession chapters + a binding referendum
Low
Active
Whether, after closing all 33 chapters, the government holds a legally binding referendum on Ukrainian accession; whether the rejection of accelerated (without substantively closing the chapters) accession holds; with an accompanying ex ante public impact assessment of the agricultural, labour-market and fund-allocation effects.
66
12–24 months — Substantive, documented fulfilment of the 27 RRF preconditions
Medium
Active
How many of the 27 preconditions are met substantively (adopted law and a working institution, not just an announcement), and how much of the EUR 16.4bn actually arrives.
67
2026 Q3 — End of the daily EUR 1 million migration fine
Medium
Delayed
Delayed: the EUR 1 million-a-day migration fine is still running and, according to the press, has already reached about EUR 1 billion. The government extended the mass-migration crisis situation to year-end, and asylum rules have still not been aligned with EU law.
68
2026 Q4 — Start of the actual disbursement of EUR 16.4bn in withheld EU funds
Medium
Active
The start of the actual (not merely unfrozen) disbursement scheduled by András Kármán for Q4 2026; the payment requests go in in September. “Agreement”, “unfreezing” and “disbursement” are three separate statuses — at present the EUR 16.4bn is unfrozen, not paid out.
69
Summer 2026 — Substantive transposition of the anti-corruption directive (conditionality milestones)
High
Active
Whether the Hungarian transposition of the EU anti-corruption directive that entered into force on 1 June 2026 is substantive (not merely the conceptual minimum), and whether the national anti-corruption strategy contains concrete, deadlined commitments (statute of limitations, investigative toolkit, prevention) with public performance indicators; and whether it passes the rule-of-law commissioner’s (McGrath) review.
70
By end-2026 — Information operations as a border-event trigger in national risk assessment
Medium
Active
Whether the national risk assessment adds, as a standalone item, the scenario in which an information operation triggers a mass physical border event within hours — and whether it is run through at least one simulation exercise.
71
Autumn 2026 — Predictable transposition of the Migration Pact — halting the penalty burden
Medium
Active
Whether by autumn 2026 the government submits a clear, public legislative timetable for transposing the Pact (reception, border procedure, solidarity mechanism, with a mandatory impact assessment), and whether the accruing infringement-penalty burden halts.
72
Autumn 2026 — An issue-based European coalition on reading the tariff exemption
Medium
Active
Whether Hungary initiates talks with the affected member states and the Commission on a pre-agreed, uniform reading of the 15 percent share threshold and the “verifiable steps” formula.
73
2027 — Permanent EU-accession negotiating capacity at the Foreign Ministry
Low
Active
Whether, by 2027, a permanent, trained negotiating capacity is built that prepares Hungarian positions cluster by cluster for the Ukraine/Moldova accession process — so that the Hungarian interest (agriculture, cohesion, Transcarpathian rights) is pursued through issue-based coalitions rather than ad hoc vetoes.
74
2027 — Measurable milestones for Transcarpathian minority guarantees
Low
Active
Watch whether measurable, verifiable indicators for Transcarpathian Hungarian education and language rights enter the Hungarian assessment of the accession Fundamentals cluster. Fulfilled when the first milestones are documented rather than left as general pledges.
75
Before March 2027 — Issue-based coalition before the drone entry-restriction takes effect in March 2027
Low
Active
Whether the six or seven like-minded member states the prime minister mentioned form a formal, issue-based coalition (joint position, amendments) ahead of the qualified-majority vote.
76
By 2027 — Public project sheet for every EU-funded project
Medium
Active
Whether every cohesion and recovery project gets a standard machine-readable sheet (beneficiary, amount, objective, deadline, delivery) — starting with the newly opened EUR 552m energy envelope.
77
By the start of the 2027 payment year — A public territorial allocation formula for development funds
Medium
Active
Whether at least 60 percent of development funds is allocated by a pre-published formula weighted on the district development index — with the formula, the weights and the input data all public.
78
Concurrent with the decision — Public, data-based justification for divergent Hungarian EU votes
Medium
Active
For what share of divergent Hungarian EU votes a public, fact-based justification is produced (currently near 0 percent, target toward 100 percent), instead of a veto threat.
79
At the next Home Affairs Council — A Hungarian initiative to tighten the Schengen notification duty
High
Active
Whether Hungary proposes that notifications of internal border checks must contain a quantified proportionality justification, an automatic expiry date and an economic impact estimate for neighbouring member states.
80
Within the next two Council sessions — An issue-based coalition with small, export-dependent member states
Medium
Active
Whether the proposal appears as a joint initiative of several member states — towards Czechia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Austria, Belgium and the Netherlands — built around a single procedural question rather than as a standing bloc.
81
Until departure — Mandatory handover protocol at all 25 affected missions
High
Active
Whether every dismissed head of mission produces a standardised protocol on pending negotiations, Hungarian commitments, outstanding cases and institutional contacts.
82
With the first payment wave — An independent review gate for high-value EU contracts
High
Active
Whether contracts above HUF 5bn must obtain a published expert opinion before signature on the level of competition, unit-price benchmarking, indicator measurability and beneficial-ownership transparency.
83
Before the autumn Council — A data-based Hungarian position in the Pact externalisation debate
High
Active
Whether a written, numbers-based Hungarian negotiating position is prepared on reception and processing capacity, the cost of expanding it and the burden-sharing formula acceptable to Hungary — carried in an issue-based coalition.
84
Immediate — Source-citation rule for government communication of migration figures
High
Active
Whether official communication is required to cite the source, measurement date and exact definition for every migration figure — five different numbers circulated about Ceuta within a single day.
85
Immediate (overdue) — Transposition of the energy-efficiency directive + notification to Brussels
High
Active
Whether the government transposes the recast energy-efficiency directive (the October 2025 deadline has passed, an infringement procedure is running) and notifies the implementing steps — avoiding a fine before the EU Court. Indicator: closing the running infringement procedures / avoiding the judicial stage.
86
Before introduction — Public impact assessment before introducing the Migration Pact
High
Active
The government adopted the EU Migration Pact; whether it publishes a mandatory, public, quantified impact assessment before introduction (transposition) — affected numbers, procedure types, cost, burden on border settlements. Main KPI: whether it appears (yes/no) and at what depth.
87
Until the action plan is submitted — Legal transposition of the Transcarpathian minority commitments
Medium
Active
Whether the linguistic/educational/cultural commitments (restoration of the minority school system, free use of Hungarian in education, national symbols in settlements with 10%+ Hungarian population) are written into concrete Ukrainian legislation and into the action plan submitted to the EU, with deadlined milestones. Indicator: the rate of legal transposition, the number of restored schools.
88
Before chapters are closed — Ex ante public impact assessment of Ukrainian accession
Medium
Active
Whether a public ex ante impact assessment of Ukrainian accession effects on Hungarian agriculture, cohesion-fund allocation and the labour market is prepared before chapters are substantively closed, and whether Hungary requests transitional mechanisms.
89
Before chapters are opened — Hungarian interest list for the Ukrainian accession process
Medium
Active
Whether the government adopts a public, itemised interest list: guarantees for the Transcarpathian minority, transitional agricultural safeguards and a labour-market impact assessment as measurable conditions.
90
During the review proceedings — Individualised, court-reviewable refugee-status review
Medium
Active
Whether refugee-status review decisions are made in individualised proceedings, with reasoning and judicial remedy (not in a group, political frame); a low overturn rate.
91
Ongoing — IOM/UNHCR-verified human-rights minimum conditions for return-hub agreements
Medium
Active
Whether every return-hub agreement affecting Hungary comes with a public, IOM/UNHCR-verified human-rights assessment (target: 100 percent), with a non-refoulement guarantee and limited detention.
92
Ongoing — Issue-based coalition building to defend a predictable competition framework
Medium
Active
How many EU files see Hungary act with a documented joint position for predictable, rule-of-law competition enforcement — linking the fine to the tariff would be a bad bargain.
93
In step with disbursement — Full public tracking of the unblocked EU funds
High
Active
Whether the unblocked funds appear on a public project list from the first disbursement wave — this, not the press conference, decides the credibility of the released billions.
94
Legislative cycle — Public, case-based justification for every EU Council vote
Low
Active
Watch whether, instead of unpredictable blocking (e.g. Ukraine accession), a public one-page data-based justification accompanies every EU Council vote. Fulfilment signal: public justification published for 100% of votes.
95
Next enlargement cycle — A time-limited transitional agricultural safeguard tabled in coalition
Medium
Active
Whether Hungary tables, jointly with Polish, Romanian and Slovak partners, a legally drafted mechanism: quantitative steps, review points, CAP compensation and a definite sunset date.
96
Next funding cycle — Clawback and automatic anomaly screening
Medium
Active
Whether a proportionate clawback applies to projects missing their targets, and whether data-driven anomaly screening runs by linking procurement and beneficiary records.
97
From next contract cycle — Four-dimensional analytical framework for China-related contracts
Low
Active
Watch whether future China-related agreements are prepared using the KP21 four-dimensional framework (economic sustainability, demographics, transition risk, multipolar room for maneuver) with an exit scenario. Target: 100% from the next cycle.
98
Precondition of drawdown — Mandatory independent cost-benefit analysis above HUF 500m
Medium
Active
Whether a public cost-benefit analysis by an independent institute becomes a precondition of drawdown for every project above HUF 500m.
99
Next Council meeting — Backing a unified EU tariff response in the Council
Medium
Active
Whether Hungary clearly backs a unified European tariff response — proportionate, targeted counter-measures without self-defeating escalation, in coalition with member states sharing car-industry exposure.
100
Next report (2026 H2–2027) — The EU rule-of-law report flags no new concern over anti-corruption bodies
Medium
Active
Whether the next Commission rule-of-law report contains no new concern over the independence of anti-corruption bodies (Integrity Authority, State Audit Office, prosecution), and whether these bodies’ powers or budgets are not reduced during leadership changes.
101
Council negotiating position — Mandatory public impact assessment for every reintroduction of internal border checks
High
Active
Whether Hungary argues in the Council that a member state reintroducing internal checks must publish a standard impact sheet every 30 days: waiting times, affected lorries, commuters and persons turned back.
102
Concurrent with the opening of negotiations — Cohesion impact calculation and a compensation proposal for the next financial framework
Medium
Active
Whether a region-by-region cohesion impact calculation is prepared on the funding-dilution effect of Ukrainian accession, and whether Hungary tables — in coalition — a gradual phase-out proposal.
103
During implementation — Rule-of-law and human-rights guarantees in the accelerated border procedure
Medium
Active
Whether the accelerated procedure observes asylum/human-rights standards (effective remedy, protection of unaccompanied minors, non-refoulement), and whether the division of competences holds (law enforcement ≠ defence task); whether the Hungarian position in the solidarity mechanism is principled and data-backed. KPI: a faster procedure without a deterioration in the remedy rate.
104
Before the autumn EU package — Completing EPPO accession and aligning it with the asset-recovery authority
High
Active
Whether accession to the European Public Prosecutor’s Office is completed, and whether the division of competences with the asset-recovery authority is settled before the Commission’s year-end anti-corruption package.
105
Before the Council decision — Published Hungarian negotiating position on the mirror clause
Medium
Active
Whether the government states before the Council negotiation what transition period it considers necessary, for which active substances it seeks product-specific grace periods, and what accompanying measure it proposes for involving partner countries — a position published afterwards is no longer a negotiating tool.
106
Before the Council negotiation — Published Hungarian position on the EUR 220m agricultural compensation
Medium
Active
Whether the government publishes if it backs Kyiv’s compensation request and on what terms, whether it asks for transit-capacity financing to be built into the package, and what safeguard it requires so that grain intended for transit does not end up on the domestic market.
107
Q1 2027 — Eligibility database for targeted food-price compensation
Low
Active
Whether the module — built on income and wealth data, territorially weighted, with automatic entitlement assessment — is ready and run on a sample of 100,000–200,000 households, with targeting accuracy published.
108
From the next sanctions item on the Council agenda — Duty to publish reasons for every Hungarian carve-out request
High
Active
Whether the government prepares an impact summary for each EU sanctions carve-out it seeks and publishes the non-confidential part within 60 days of the decision: the exemption’s estimated annual value, those affected, the cost of alternatives.
109
Concurrently with adopting the selection rules — Competitive selection for prosecutors handling EU-budget cases
High
Active
Whether Hungarian prosecutors handling EU-budget cases are designated through an open competition on pre-published professional criteria, with the call, the assessment criteria and the reasoned decision all public. Target: by mid-2027.
110
Together with the 2027 budget act — Beneficiary-continuity guarantee in case of EU suspension
Medium
Active
Whether an act guarantees that awarded grants continue to be paid from the central budget if EU funds are suspended — the KEKVA case showed the cost of government default currently lands on universities and students.
111
Within 60 days of the Council decision — Ranked cohesion project list backed by cost-benefit analysis
Medium
Active
Will the government publish a full, ranked list of projects for the EUR 4.2 billion envelope, with costs, timelines, outcome indicators and an independent cost-benefit analysis, before the first grant agreement is signed? Departures from the ranking should require a written, public explanation.
112
Within 60 days of the Commission publishing its reform proposal — Hungary’s conditions for moving to qualified majority voting
Medium
Active
Whether the Government sends the Council presidency and the Commission three written conditions for its consent: a uniform, measurable minority-rights benchmark in every candidate’s negotiating framework, an emergency brake for newly majority-based matters, and a public review after three years.
113
Until the Council adopts its position on the Erasmus+ regulation — Hungarian backing for the Erasmus+ rule-of-law condition
Medium
Active
Whether the Government openly supports, in the Council working party, tying Erasmus+ funding to the rule of law with predefined criteria, and publishes 2026-2027 outgoing student numbers for the 21 previously excluded universities compared with pre-exclusion years.
114
Early December 2026 — Draft amendment on legal aid in criminal proceedings put to public consultation
Medium
Active
Within the Commission’s two-month reply deadline, will the Ministry of Justice put out for public consultation a draft, with an impact assessment, on legal aid and ex officio appointment of defence counsel in criminal cases — and attach it to Hungary’s reply to Brussels?
115
Before the final MFF agreement — Updated Hungarian burden estimate for repaying the EU’s joint debt
Medium
Active
Will the government publish, during the phase of the talks led by European Council President António Costa, an updated estimate of Hungary’s burden under three scenarios: fixed repayment, stretched repayment and new joint borrowing? Met if the position also states the condition under which Hungary would back slower repayment.
116
Late October 2026 — Point-by-point compliance report to close the Article 7 procedure
High
Active
Before the European Parliament delegation visits, will the government publish a report that matches each concern in Parliament’s 2018 resolution with the legal change made, its entry into force, the first measurable result and any open issue? A strong signal would be if written comments from civil society and judicial bodies are published alongside it.
117
By the December European Council — Issue-based Hungarian position on protecting CEF transport funding
Medium
Active
Will Hungary join the member states opposing cuts to the transport strand of the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF), and commit to funding projects from the protected money on the basis of a public cost-benefit ranking? It is also worth tracking whether the final deal keeps CEF transport at the level the Commission proposed.
118
During the parliamentary debate on the 2027 budget — Asylum bill to comply with the ruling and monthly disclosure of the fine
Medium
Active
Will the government table an asylum bill that complies with the EU court ruling, and from November publish the accumulated fine every month? Success means that once Parliament passes the law, the government asks the Commission to confirm compliance and the daily penalty stops.
4. Anti-corruption measures and asset-flight blocking
Accountability gained tools this week but not yet safeguards. A decree of 21 October gave the National Asset Recovery and Protection Office (NVVH) powers to issue wanted notices and arrest warrants and to process biometric data, and former central bank governor György Matolcsy was detained on suspicion of economic fraud. The new NVVH points (a public map of legal bases, a data-handling policy reviewed by the data protection authority NAIH, a quarterly tally of coercive measures) and the asset-recovery reports are therefore two sides of the same coin: the stronger the recovery toolkit, the more judicial oversight and public accounting decide whether results will hold up in court. The sports conflict-of-interest and Norway Grants points apply the same test forward: closing the re-election loophole and independent grant assessment show whether new rules exclude the old pattern, not just the old players.
1
2026-08-31 — Rule-of-law redesign of KEKVA public-asset management in parallel with dissolution
Medium
Delayed
Delayed: the asset transfer happened, but the rule-of-law redesign of stewardship — a public management charter, conflict-of-interest rules, reporting duties — did not come with it.
2
2026-09-03 — Full disclosure of the motorway concession contract and payments, audited value-for-money balance (60 days)
Medium
Delayed
Delayed: on 20 October the finance minister named the review of unfavourable concession contracts, including spending tied to the M5 and M6 motorways, as the largest item in the 2027 spending cuts. The concession contract, the payment schedule and an audited value-for-money assessment are still not public.
3
2026-10-02 — An itemised public inventory of the returning foundation assets
High
Delayed
Delayed: according to the Budapest-Capital Regional Court, the winding-up of the 14 dissolved foundations runs until 31 October, and no itemised inventory per foundation has appeared so far. On 4 October the Budapest Public Development Council had already decided to use recovered land on the Soroksár branch of the Danube for the Student City project.
4
2026-10-05 — Public inventory and public-use plan for KEKVA and foundation assets
Medium
Delayed
Delayed: according to the Budapest-Capital Regional Court, the winding-up of the 14 dissolved foundations runs until 31 October, and no itemised, machine-readable asset inventory has appeared so far. On 4 October the Budapest Public Development Council decided to relaunch the Student City project on land recovered from the Fudan foundation, while the finance minister cited the recovery of non-university foundation assets as a deficit-reducing step.
5
2026-10-08 — KEKVA public asset inventory and management rulebook
Medium
Delayed
Delayed: no itemised inventory or management rulebook for the recovered foundation assets has appeared, because according to the Budapest-Capital Regional Court the winding-up of the dissolved foundations runs until 31 October. Meanwhile, on 4 October a decision was already taken to use recovered land on the Soroksár branch of the Danube for the Student City project.
6
2026-10-26 — Standard justification template for negotiated procedures without notice
High
Active
Whether a pre-set justification template for urgent procedures without prior notice is adopted within 60 days, recording the grounds for urgency in a form that can be checked afterwards.
7
2026-10-26 — Publishing the asset-declaration risk-rating methodology and aggregate results
High
Active
Will the Integrity Authority disclose its risk factors, their weighting, category thresholds and the aggregate breakdown by type of office, confirming that sitting ministers and MPs are screened the same way — followed by a quarterly hit rate?
8
2026-10-27 — Public numerical first-year commitments 60 days after the NVVH election
High
Active
Whether the new president publishes numerical first-year commitments within 60 days of election — how many cases will open, how much property will be frozen, and by what methodology delivery is measured.
9
2026-10-28 — Asset recovery office: case-selection rules and uniform, anonymised case sheets
High
Active
Whether the National Asset Recovery and Protection Office publishes its case-selection rules and presents all four initial cases on a standard sheet covering subject, transferring authority, procedural stage, sourced loss estimate, secured assets and reason for selection, without naming anyone not formally suspected.
10
2026-10-28 — Written reasons and recusal statements for the NVVH deputy heads
High
Active
Will Parliament’s Justice and Constitutional Affairs Committee publish the selection criteria, the number of applicants per post and written reasons for each of the three deputy heads elected to the National Asset Recovery and Protection Office (NVVH)? Met if all three declare publicly which categories of case and which bodies they will recuse themselves from.
11
2026-10-31 — Hearing minutes published without delay
Medium
Active
Whether hearing minutes appear within 10 working days of each sitting, with full coverage — the degree of committee publicity is itself a measurement point.
12
2026-10-31 — Tax authority instruction requiring reasons for removing criminal-division chiefs
High
Active
Will the head of the National Tax and Customs Administration (NAV) issue an instruction requiring that the reason for withdrawing a criminal or law-enforcement executive’s appointment be recorded in writing and published by category within 15 days: restructuring, performance, loss of confidence tied to a specific event, or disciplinary or integrity proceedings?
13
2026-11-01 — Reporting duties for settlement commissioners and separation of media holdings
Medium
Active
Whether commissioners publish a quarterly report on the assets and on criminal complaints filed, and whether temporary state ownership in media comes with mandatory management separation and a 12-month exit deadline.
14
2026-11-05 — Asset declarations machine-readably published
High
Active
New/outgoing MPs, cabinet members, state secretaries 100% in machine-readable format by end 2026; max 14 days between appointment and upload; NAIH + parliamentary asset declaration portal.
15
2026-11-06 — Data-based bottleneck analysis of corruption case proceedings
Medium
Active
Whether, before the bill is tabled, a public breakdown shows how long each stage of corruption and economic crime cases takes from complaint to final judgment, and how much delay stems from statutory deadlines, capacity shortages or the exercise of defence rights.
16
2026-11-07 — Public exclusion guidance for contracting authorities in transport investment
High
Active
Will the Ministry of Transport and Investment (KBM) issue public guidance telling state contracting authorities which discretionary exclusion grounds they apply and what evidence each requires? Met if every exclusion is reasoned in writing with its legal basis, can be challenged before the Public Procurement Arbitration Board, and the self-cleaning route is spelled out.
17
2026-11-11 — Machine-readable procurement blacklist with automatic querying
Medium
Active
Whether the register is available as open data, free of charge and without registration, searchable by company registration and tax number, and whether the query is built automatically into bid evaluation in the e-procurement system rather than left to the contracting authority’s diligence.
18
2026-11-12 — Clearing up the capital funds missing from the beneficial-ownership register
High
Active
Will the National Tax and Customs Administration (NAV) and the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) jointly establish why 12 private equity funds and 9 fund managers are absent from the beneficial-ownership register? Met if it becomes clear whether this is a reporting failure or a register error, and the gaps start being filled.
19
2026-11-13 — Asset recovery package on 3 channels
High
Active
180-day asset recovery package: unjust enrichment, Criminal Procedure Act § 327 forfeiture, OLAF/EU sanctions channel; relief fund for non-culpable subcontractors.
20
2026-11-15 — Statutory asset-settlement framework with legal remedy (90 days)
High
Active
Whether Parliament passes a single asset-settlement act applying one procedure to every recovered asset: itemised registration with opening and closing values, designated purpose, and an avenue of appeal.
21
2026-11-20 — Public map of the legal basis for the NVVH’s new criminal-procedure powers
High
Active
Will the Ministry of the Interior and the Ministry of Justice publish, for every new power of the National Asset Recovery and Asset Protection Office (NVVH), including wanted notices and arrest warrants, the enabling statutory provision and the implementing decree section? Met if the map covers every power and any gap it reveals triggers a legislative amendment.
22
2026-11-21 — PADME Foundation and MNB to lodge a civil claim in the criminal case
High
Active
Will the PADME Foundation and the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) announce publicly that they are pursuing a civil-law claim within the criminal proceedings and ask for the suspects’ assets to be sequestered? Met if the motion is filed, which obliges the prosecution service to rule on sequestration.
23
2026-11-25 — Public procedural agreement on the division of labour among accountability bodies
Medium
Active
Will the Integrity Authority, the tax authority, the national asset recovery office, the funding ministries and the prosecution service agree publicly on who refers what to whom and in which order — with post-award audits preceding criminal complaints in subsidy cases?
24
2026-11-27 — Public task and its funding moving together, with a first-year delivery plan
Medium
Active
Whether each transferred public task can be traced to a ring-fenced budget line at the receiving body, and whether that body publishes a first-year delivery plan with numerical indicators within 90 days.
25
2026-11-29 — Public itemised inventory of recovered property assets
Medium
Active
What share of the recovered property stock gets an itemised public inventory within 90 days, and whether a social-rental utilisation balance accompanies it. Without an inventory the assets’ fate cannot be traced.
26
2026-11-30 — Interior ministry findings published whatever the outcome
High
Active
Whether an itemised list of findings from the review of the 20 August event procurements is published within 15 days of closure, including if no irregularity is found.
27
2026-11-30 — Publication protocol for public-asset risk assessments
Medium
Active
Whether a protocol setting out objection and remedy procedures is adopted before the first public risk list — public naming without redress would cost the office its credibility.
28
2026-11-30 — Public closing summary of the internal NAV inquiry requested in June
Medium
Active
Will NAV publish a summary of the internal inquiry the prime minister requested in June into staff roles in the gold convoy affair? Will it name who is now responsible for the criminal directorate’s pending priority cases after the leadership change?
29
2026-11-30 — Publication of the Norway Grants cooperation agreement and programme table
Medium
Active
Within 15 days of signature, and by 30 November at the latest, will the government publish the full agreement with its annexes, together with a table of envelopes, programme operators, call dates and accounting deadlines? A follow-up signal is the call schedule and project list appearing by 31 March 2027 on the same national portal as EU funds data, updated every four months.
30
2026-12-01 — Full access for the audit office and the Fiscal Council
Medium
Active
Whether the amendment extending audit-office and Fiscal Council access to non-public decisions passes within 90 days. Access is worth something only if the oversight body actually uses it.
31
2026-12-07 — Public case-status register for public-asset cases above HUF 1 billion
Medium
Active
Whether a machine-readable register launches within 90 days tracking each case through complaint, investigation, indictment, final judgment and assets actually recovered, anonymised before indictment.
32
2026-12-15 — Statutory statement that central-bank operating spend is public
High
Active
Whether legislation passed in the autumn session establishes that the general disclosure duty covers the central bank’s non-monetary operating spend — procurement, property use, advisory mandates — and how wide the exemption list is.
33
2026-12-15 — Event-linked deadlines for removing the heads of the Integrity Authority
Medium
Active
Whether an amendment to the Integrity Authority Act is tabled with tiered triggers: mandatory notification upon suspicion, a reasoned decision by the President of the State Audit Office (ÁSZ) within 30 days of an indictment, and automatic termination upon final conviction. The rule should apply only to events after its entry into force.
34
2026-12-15 — Public parliamentary hearing on the Government’s dispute with the State Audit Office
Medium
Active
Whether the competent parliamentary committee holds a public, minuted session during the autumn sitting at which the President of the State Audit Office (ÁSZ) presents the timetable of the campaign-finance audit and a Government representative sets out its objections in the same forum.
35
2026-12-18 — Research money only through a research-funding channel
Medium
Active
Whether legislation within 90 days confines research grants above HUF 20 million to a dedicated funder — primarily the national research office — awarded by open call, independent peer review, a subcontracting cap and published results.
36
2026-12-20 — NVVH rules on biometric data, with an opinion from the data protection authority
Medium
Active
Will the NVVH adopt public rules on handling DNA profiles, fingerprints and facial images, and seek the opinion of the National Authority for Data Protection and Freedom of Information (NAIH)? Met if biometric data obtained in criminal cases cannot flow into the office’s administrative inquiries and every query is logged.
37
2026-12-28 — Budapest-Belgrade: independent ROI, currency-risk and contractor audit
Medium
Active
Watch whether an independent, public expert audit of return on investment, currency risk and contractor terms is produced within 6 months. Fulfilment: published findings from a body independent of the State Audit Office.
38
2026-12-29 — Full text of the finance-related confidential government decisions
Medium
Active
Will the Prime Minister’s Office publish the full text of those among the 3,598 confidential government decisions that concern grants, capital injections, property purchases, loans or asset transfers? Anything kept closed should come with a case-by-case justification and an expiry date; the deadline for the entire stock is 30 September 2027.
39
2026-12-31 — Contract audit extended to every ministry
Medium
Active
Watch whether the defense-ministry contract-review methodology is extended to every ministry and to state firms above HUF 100bn, including the current government’s own contracts. Fulfilled when the reviews close with public summaries.
40
2026-12-31 — Public single-bid monitor and procurement red-flag system
Medium
Active
Whether the single-bid share of state procurement is published quarterly by ministry and value band, with automatic risk flags (repeat winners, tailored specifications).
41
2026-12-31 — Sunset date on the NVVH’s broadest powers
Medium
Active
Whether the authorisation for covert intelligence gathering and coercive measures carries a sunset date with mandatory parliamentary review — extraordinary powers hardening into permanent ones is the main risk.
42
2026-12-31 — Central-bank foundation assets brought into the public-money database
High
Active
Whether the final report lists the specific provisions of the central bank act on foundation creation and public-money status, and traces at least 80% of the HUF 393.5bn.
43
2026-12-31 — Mandatory written reasoning for every discretionary state-asset act
High
Active
Whether the 2027 budget act requires published written reasoning for every discretionary state-asset decision above HUF 500m — the missing decision trail is what the four investigations have in common.
44
2026-12-31 — Authority-verification clause for long-duration commitments
High
Active
Whether a written authority verification becomes a precondition for signing state commitments longer than ten years — the criminal complaint over the M6 concession is the symptom, the missing clause the cause.
45
2026-12-31 — Unit-cost benchmark for major transport projects
Medium
Active
Will the Ministry of Transport and Investment issue a per-kilometre cost benchmark for suburban rail, metro and railway upgrades, refreshed annually? Met if any winning bid more than 20 percent above the benchmark triggers a published justification and independent expert review.
46
2026-12-31 — Bill on an emergency procurement protocol
Medium
Active
Will the government table a statutory protocol for urgent purchases made outside normal public procurement: minimum track record, supplier vetting, unit-price comparison, full publication in the e-procurement system within 30 days and a follow-up audit by the Government Audit Office within 12 months, leaving the State Audit Office’s independence intact?
47
2026-12-31 — Enshrining confidentiality of individual risk ratings in law
Medium
Active
Will Parliament put into statute the rule that authorities neither confirm nor comment on an individual’s risk rating, disclose only concluded findings or criminal referrals, and give the person a chance to explain changes in assets beforehand?
48
2026-12-31 — Statutory ban on secret government decisions granting individual subsidies
Medium
Active
Will the government table a bill that lists exhaustively the grounds on which a government decision may stay confidential, and rules out confidential decisions on individual grants, capital or asset transfers, loans or guarantees? Met only if the ban attaches to the substance of the decision rather than its legal form.
49
2026-12-31 — Statutory name protection for rank-and-file investigators
Medium
Active
Will Parliament amend the freedom of information act and the service laws of investigative bodies so that rank-and-file investigators’ names are no longer public-interest data, while senior officials’ names remain public? Will intimidation-driven compiling of their personal data become an offence, without limiting their identifiability within proceedings?
50
2026-12-31 — First quarterly register of leadership changes at NAV, police and the asset-recovery office
Medium
Active
Will the first public register of leadership changes at investigative bodies appear, listing each post, the date and legal basis of the decision, the reason category and how the successor was chosen? The government is to publish it for NAV and the police, and the National Asset Recovery and Protection Office (NVVH) for itself.
51
2026-12-31 — Enforceable cooling-off period overseen by an independent body
Medium
Active
Will the government table a bill obliging former ministers and state secretaries to notify any new job for two years, giving an independent body the power to issue binding, publicly reasoned decisions, and imposing fines for breaches?
52
2026-12-31 — Tender-based rules of use for reclaimed KEKVA foundation assets
Medium
Active
Whether the Government issues a decree requiring a public options analysis before deciding the fate of each reclaimed property, an open tender wherever a non-state body is to use it, and publication of each decision with reasons within 15 days. Assets under litigation should not be sold or encumbered before a final court ruling.
53
2026-12-31 — End-of-mandate transaction freeze for publicly funded foundations and asset managers
Medium
Active
Will an amendment be tabled by 30 November and passed by year-end requiring supervisory-board approval for any transfer of ownership control or lasting disposal of assets in the 90 days before a leader’s term ends and until the successor takes office? Met if such deals also require notifying the State Audit Office (ÁSZ) and a 15-day waiting period, and the court of registration records a change of owner only with the founding body’s confirmation.
54
2027-01-01 — Machine-readable publication of CAP beneficiary data
Medium
Active
Whether the agricultural subsidy beneficiary register is downloadable and machine-readable before the 2027 application cycle opens — together with beneficial-ownership chains.
55
2027-01-01 — Retrospective disclosure of decision-preparation correspondence above HUF 500m
Medium
Active
Whether, from the 2027 budget year, decision-preparation correspondence must be disclosed retrospectively for state event procurements above HUF 500m, with redactions individually justified.
56
2027-01-01 — A uniform disclosure regime for publicly founded asset managers
Medium
Active
Whether the uniform disclosure regime takes effect on 1 January: open tabular format, a uniform counterparty identifier, a filled-in amount field for at least 90 per cent of items, within 30 days of signature.
57
2027-01-01 — Machine-readable, decision-by-decision register explaining the numbering gaps
Medium
Active
Will a CSV or JSON register of confidential government decisions go live, giving each entry’s number, date, responsible ministry, legal ground for secrecy and status, updated quarterly to cover the current government as well? And will it explain what happened to the 491 numbers missing from the published list?
58
2027-01-01 — Concentration alarm for large central subsidy programmes
Medium
Active
Will the government require every central subsidy programme above ten billion forints to publish each quarter the share taken by the top 1 percent of contracts and the share awarded by individual decision rather than open call? An external review should be triggered automatically if individual awards exceed a fifth of the budget or the top 1 percent take more than half.
59
2027-01-04 — Sectoral whistleblower system in healthcare (6 months)
Low
Active
Whether an encrypted, anonymous whistleblower channel with legal protection against retaliation is built (transposing the EU whistleblower directive), and whether the rate of unlawful retaliation against reporters is 0 percent.
60
2027-01-12 — Public, itemised sports-funding registry
Medium
Active
MIAK wants a machine-readable, itemised registry within six months, showing TAO, Bethlen Gábor Fund sports payments and media rights fees in one place. A good sign is that funding no longer needs freedom-of-information requests to surface.
61
2027-01-20 — Aggregate update on requests to trace and freeze assets abroad
Medium
Active
Will the prosecution service and the relevant government bodies report how many requests to trace and freeze assets abroad are pending, in how many countries, and the value of assets frozen abroad, without disclosing investigative details? Met if the update is repeated quarterly and assets are frozen abroad within 12 months.
62
2027-01-23 — Putting no-exceptions accountability on an institutional footing
Medium
Active
Whether preparation of an Independent Anti-Corruption Bureau begins with pre-set competence boundaries — the bureau investigates, prosecution stays with the prosecution service.
63
2027-01-31 — Publication within fifteen days, with related-party flags, on the public-money dashboard
Medium
Active
Whether asset transactions appear in machine-readable form within 15 days of the decision with the related-party field completed — the median delay is itself the metric.
64
2027-01-31 — First quarterly NVVH report on leadership recusals
Medium
Active
Will the NVVH publish, using anonymised case numbers, how many cases one of its leaders stepped back from because of a conflict of interest? Met if the report then appears regularly every quarter.
65
2027-01-31 — First quarterly NVVH balance sheet of coercive measures
Medium
Active
Will the NVVH publish, without personal data, the number of wanted notices and arrest warrants, the share of people brought before a judge within 72 hours, the number of detention motions and the share granted by the courts, and the number of biometric data requests? Met if the figures are updated quarterly as a time series and set against the same data for other investigating bodies.
66
2027-01-31 — First six-monthly asset-recovery report from the central bank foundation
Medium
Active
Will the foundation publish the state of its portfolio: the value of assets sold and earmarked for sale, the position of the GTC stake and the Swiss Ultima investment, and the sums recovered and still in dispute? Met if the report includes a value-preservation ratio measured against the HUF 266.5 billion founding endowment, is updated every six months, and the ratio does not fall from year to year.
67
2027-03-28 — Six-month asset-securing rate in the recovery office’s first four cases
Medium
Active
Whether quarterly case-by-case figures appear showing secured assets, indictments and money actually returned, measured against the loss estimate fixed on announcement day. The headline yardstick should be the recovery rate, not case counts or headline sums.
68
2027-03-31 — Asset Recovery Office — legal foundation and operational launch
High
Active
A2 cardinal-law bill submitted within 90 days of the opening session (by 7 August 2026); operational by Q1 2027; HUF 100 bn annual recovered assets initial target; Independent Corruption Investigation Office CPIB-model draft to parliament by 10 August 2026.
69
2027-03-31 — Open contract database for state-owned companies
Low
Active
Whether legislation is tabled obliging every majority state- or municipally-owned company to publish contracts above HUF 5 million within 30 days in machine-readable form, including beneficial owner, value and procedure type.
70
2027-03-31 — Open, criteria-based tobacco wholesale licensing
Low
Active
Whether the bill tabled opens wholesale to any firm meeting published conditions — excise licence, EU track-and-trace, non-discriminatory supply to retailers — rather than handing it to a new exclusive rights-holder.
71
2027-03-31 — Decree on itemised sign-off for consultancy contracts
Low
Active
Will a government decree require numbered deliverables, item-by-item certification and a stated reason for not using in-house capacity on consultancy and training contracts above HUF 100 million? The certifying official should be different from the one who approves and the one who authorises payment.
72
2027-03-31 — Fradiváros case: grant documents and a public post-award audit report
Low
Active
Will the state secretariat responsible for sport publish the grant agreements and their amendments along with the club’s final reports, and conclude its post-award audit with a public report?
73
2027-03-31 — Decree on open tendering for consultancy and a public study repository
Medium
Active
Will a government decree require open calls in the electronic procurement system, with at least ten working days to bid, for study and consultancy contracts above HUF 5 million net — and require finished studies to go into a searchable public repository within 30 days?
74
2027-03-31 — Public target-figure sheet for the Budapest Student City project
Medium
Active
Whether the Ministry of Transport and Investment (KBM) publishes, before the design contract and the EU funding application, the number of dormitory places and rental flats per phase, the rent-cap formula, the allocation rule and the budget by funding source, together with a written cooperation agreement with the capital and District IX.
75
2027-03-31 — Market concentration indicator for road and rail construction tenders
Medium
Active
Will the ministry publish, from Electronic Public Procurement System (EKR) data, the concentration of road and rail construction tenders for 2022–2026: the number of winners, the top five winners’ share and the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index? Met if consortium members and beneficial owners are consolidated in the calculation and quarterly updates follow.
76
2027-03-31 — Full beneficial-ownership coverage for publicly funded capital funds
Medium
Active
Will register coverage of publicly funded capital funds and their managers reach 100 per cent, up from 73 and 65 per cent respectively? Met if the NAV publishes the completeness rate monthly, together with the names of non-compliant funds and fund managers.
77
2027-03-31 — Independent review and reasoned decisions in government-run Norway Grants programmes
Medium
Active
Will the first call require review by at least two independent experts, a decision panel without a ministry majority, public conflict-of-interest declarations from every reviewer and decision-maker, and published decisions with scores and reasons? Implementation should be assessed in the annual review held jointly with the donor countries.
78
2027-04-19 — Independent Corruption Investigation Office operational
Medium
Active
Singapore CPIB model: operational independence, investigative powers, 10-year leadership mandate.
79
2027-04-28 — Final court confiscation rate ≥25% (12 months)
Medium
Active
What share of assets blocked by NAV the court ultimately transfers to the budget — the conversion ratio from blocking to actual recovery.
80
2027-05-08 — Single-bidder procurement share below 15%
Medium
Active
12 months: below 25%, 24 months: below 18%, 36 months: below 15%; AI-based anomaly detector; EU acceptance threshold 10%.
81
2027-05-17 — NER investigation 70+ point case irregularity rate 60%
Medium
Active
Within one year, share of cases where SAO or KBH proves irregularity min. 60%; below 50% the methodology must be reviewed; state’s success rate in invalidity/nullity actions min. 70%.
82
2027-05-31 — Immunity case register in the Prosecutor General’s annual report
Low
Active
Whether the Prosecutor General’s report to Parliament lists the number of immunity requests, offence categories, time from suspicion to filing and Parliament’s decisions, as a time series that can be compared across government and opposition MPs.
83
2027-06-22 — Mandatory open municipal procurement database with anomaly flagging
Medium
Active
Watch whether every municipal procurement contract appears in a machine-readable public database with real-time updates and an AI anomaly detector flagging single-bid tenders and benchmark deviations.
84
2027-06-30 — Frozen + recovered assets: HUF 50-150 bn
High
Active
NAV audit; OLAF precedent-based minimum result for the new government’s first year.
85
2027-06-30 — Hungarian WGI control of corruption: -0.17 → ≥0
Medium
Active
World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators; combined effect of EPPO + AMLD + recovery. Interim: 2027 +0.1 (to -0.07), 2028 above +0.15; WGI Control of Corruption +15-20 percentile by 2028.
86
2027-06-30 — Full remuneration package on the public-spending dashboard
High
Active
Whether executive pay at majority state-owned companies appears company by company in machine-readable form: base salary, bonus, benefits in kind, severance and any advisory contract on a separate line — and whether the number and value of exemptions from the pay cap is public.
87
2027-06-30 — Five-yearly value-for-money audit and contractual renegotiation gate
Medium
Active
Whether running concessions gain a public five-yearly value-for-money audit and a linked renegotiation gate that opens automatically once deviation passes a threshold.
88
2027-06-30 — Closing the open sports tax-relief settlements
Low
Active
Will the state secretariat for sport publish a programme-by-programme table of unsettled corporate-tax-relief (tao) accounts and issue a ruling on every period, either accepting it or ordering repayment? The longer-term benchmark is a statutory 12-month deadline for such decisions.
89
2027-06-30 — Retrospective inventory of government studies commissioned in 2018-2026
Low
Active
Will the Prime Minister’s Office compile an inventory of government-commissioned studies from 2018 to 2026, publish those that are not classified, and launch recovery checks where a paid-for study cannot be found?
90
2027-06-30 — Bill separating ministry-funded events from election campaigns
Low
Active
Will the government table a bill requiring that, during the campaign period, the cost, venue and performers of every state-funded public event are published within 8 days, that unusually high event spending in a constituency is justified publicly, and that ministers or state secretaries running as candidates cannot speak at state events in their own constituency?
91
2027-07-07 — Annual public rule-of-law audit of asset-recovery proceedings
Low
Active
Watch whether an annual public rule-of-law audit operates: how many cases were opened, how much pre-trial detention was proportionately justified, and in how many cases courts ultimately convicted or acquitted.
92
2027-07-12 — Performance-based funding with a clawback mechanism
Low
Active
Within 12 months every substantive sports grant should tie to a measurable target indicator, with proportional clawback of unmet funding. A good sign is the clawback existing not just on paper but being applied and documented.
93
2027-07-13 — Annual regulatory-capture audit of rent-generating sectors
Low
Active
Whether the first systemic report is produced on where state-protected, competition-free rents arise — and whether mandatory tendering becomes the rule for future concessions.
94
2027-07-16 — Mandatory written form and logging in the law-enforcement decision chain
Low
Active
Whether legislation requires that ordering, approving and handing over high-profile police operations happen only in writing, with tamper-proof logging.
95
2027-07-16 — Statutory cooling-off period (revolving-door rule)
Low
Active
Whether Parliament passes a conflict-of-interest law imposing an 18–24 month cooling-off period on ministers and senior officials involved in funding decisions.
96
2027-07-17 — A two-year cooling-off period in a general, forward-looking law
Low
Active
Whether the rule stays general and forward-looking — not a retroactive law written for one named person, but a universal conflict-of-interest norm following the 2010 OECD recommendation.
97
2027-08-01 — KEKVA: board membership tied to professional accreditation
Medium
Active
Watch whether, by the August 2027 transition deadline, board and supervisory members are chosen via public tender on verified professional competence rather than political or business trust. Target: 100% of new members on a professional standard.
98
2027-08-20 — Procedural statistics module on the criminal data platform (12 months)
High
Active
Whether the tax authority, the national police and the investigative prosecution services publish quarterly, machine-readable procedural statistics on publicly salient cases: openings, suspensions, closures, indictments and duration. None publishes this today.
99
2027-08-22 — Wiring central-bank contracts into the common spending register (12 months)
Medium
Active
Whether central-bank contracts appear in the shared, machine-readable public-spending register in the same data structure — not on a separate site in unsearchable form. Measure: what share of contracts above HUF 5m by mid-2027.
100
2027-10-01 — Public, machine-readable register of state commitments
Low
Active
Whether a public register of concession and PPP contracts running beyond ten years — with fee formulas, indexation rules and total exposure in present value — exists by the filing of the 2028 budget act.
101
2027-12-22 — Competition mandate on municipal tenders, cut single-bid share
Medium
Active
Watch whether the share of single-bid municipal procedures falls toward mandatory targets (goal: under 15%) and whether “unrealistically low price” disqualifications require detailed public justification.
102
2027-12-31 — Over 90% of grants with a public record sheet
Low
Active
The proposed KPI targets over 90% of all state sports funding having a public, itemised record sheet by 2027. A good sign is the share rising markedly from today’s state, where data only surfaces via information requests.
103
2027-12-31 — Ex post conflict-of-interest audit of large support decisions
Low
Active
Whether individually granted government subsidies receive a mandatory public follow-up audit: were the promised jobs created, and who later took a job at the beneficiary company.
104
2027-12-31 — Annual return-on-capital review of state equity injections
Low
Active
Whether an annual public statement on a consistent methodology covers every state capital injection above HUF 10bn — the HUF 80bn routed into Paks II became a criminal case precisely for want of one.
105
2027-12-31 — Minimum asset-register standard for large public institutions
Low
Active
Will a government decree require public bodies holding more than ten thousand asset items to carry out a full itemised inventory at least every two years, tag assets for machine identification, write off missing items only after a documented inquiry and publish an annual summary? The suggested target is that by the end of 2027 all assets at the public media and other large institutions are counted item by item.
106
2028-01-16 — Rules of contact between the political cabinet and operational law enforcement
Low
Active
Whether public rules are adopted on the channels and documentation duties governing contact between the government’s political staff and operational police and intelligence chiefs.
107
2028-07-16 — Public lobby register and disclosure of decision-makers’ diaries
Low
Active
Whether a system is created recording who met whom, when and on what matter — with lobbying entries in ministerial and state-secretary diaries made public.
108
2028-12-31 — Anchoring the anti-corruption investigation body beyond the electoral cycle
Low
Active
Whether an establishing act gives the Singapore-style anti-corruption body operational independence, its own budget, a multi-year non-revocable leadership mandate and an annual public reporting duty.
109
2029-07-11 — Cutting single-bid procurement below 15%
Low
Active
Watch whether the share of single-bid procurement falls from about 30% to below 15% within three years, aided by an AI anomaly detector. Fulfilled when the ratio measurably drops under the 15% target.
110
2029-12-31 — Mid-term independent performance review of the NVVH
Low
Active
Whether the statute provides for an independent external performance review at the mid-point of the cycle, assessing case-referral yield and the objection indicator.
111
from day one of operations — Contact log and annual publication at the asset-recovery office
Medium
Active
Whether the office keeps a contact log of approaches from political and business actors and publishes it annually. It is the one cheap instrument for rebutting suspicions of selective case-opening.
112
together with the register — Exhaustive classification grounds and a mandatory expiry date
High
Active
Whether the list of classification grounds becomes exhaustive and every non-public decision gets a mandatory expiry date. If more than half the cases cite national-security interest, the category is being read expansively.
113
within 90 days of the office standing up — Methodology annex for the public-asset estimate
Medium
Active
Whether the asset-recovery office publishes the methodology annex behind its HUF 10,000–60,000bn estimate. A threefold spread stays a communications figure until a derivation stands behind it.
114
before the first recruitment wave — Public scored recruitment protocol for the 150-strong staff
High
Active
Whether the 150-strong staff is recruited on a published, scored set of criteria. The office’s credibility turns on whether it applies to its own hiring the benchmark it demands of others.
115
with the 2027 budget package — Raising central-bank contract disclosure to statutory level
Medium
Active
Whether quarterly contract publication is written into law or stays a voluntary practice. Proposed benchmark: published contracts covering more than 95 per cent of the operating expenditure lines in the annual accounts by end-2027.
116
from the first annual report — Measuring the cross-border dimension of asset recovery
Medium
Active
Whether the annual asset-recovery report shows the aggregate value and procedural status of cases touching foreign jurisdictions, plus the number of foreign requests and average response time.
117
at the end of every term — Retrospective aggregate disclosure to Parliament
Low
Active
Whether Parliament receives a per-term aggregate statement of the number and financial scale of non-public government decisions. That indicator will show a year from now whether the gap closed.
118
12-18 month cycle — Open competitive tendering of future infrastructure projects and mandatory ex post review
Low
Active
Whether future concessions and road builds are put out to open, competitive tender (comply-or-explain principle), with a 12-18 month re-measurement of the expected outcome fixed before the contract.
119
12–18 months — Automatic cross-checking and sanction for unexplained wealth growth
Medium
Active
Whether at least three machine cross-checks (property, company, income–wealth gap) are run on every asset declaration, and whether actual investigations follow unexplained wealth growth.
120
12–18 months — Criteria-based media-rights and cross-border funding framework
Low
Active
Within 12-18 months, media-rights fees and cross-border sports funding should be decided by pre-set public criteria with grant-based accounting. A good sign is cross-border payments no longer vanishing into items ranging from stationery to pastries.
121
12–24 months — Public, machine-queryable public-spending database (cohesion + recovery)
Low
Active
Whether the public, machine-queryable public-spending database is operational and fully covers cohesion and recovery projects.
122
2026 — Public, machine-readable board asset declarations and pay
Medium
Active
Watch whether trustees’ and executives’ asset declarations become available as comparable data rather than PDFs, and whether leadership pay is disclosed.
123
2026 Q3 — Number of PEP reports monthly 200+ — banking AML activity KPI
High
Active
Monthly PEP reports to NAV (2025 baseline ~30); the 200+ threshold signals actual use of the AML toolkit.
124
Autumn 2026 (postponed) — Asset-Recovery Office law — judicial control, not direct confiscation
High
Delayed
The bill originally promised for end-June was deferred to public consultation on 20 June 2026 (the office’s estimated stand-up: autumn/September). The benchmark: the office’s role must be strictly preparatory-coordinating and bound to judicial approval (NOT a direct power of confiscation).
125
2026–2027 — Pre-set, uniform conflict-of-interest and cooling-off rules
Low
Active
A good sign is the adoption of a uniform, pre-set conflict-of-interest regime for every publicly funded foundation, including a mandatory cooling-off gap between state and foundation leadership roles.
126
2026–2028 — Independent anti-corruption authority and mandatory official rotation
Low
Active
Fulfilled when corruption-prone areas (procurement, permitting) get mandatory five-year rotation and pre-appointment integrity checks, and a politically independent authority can investigate unexplained wealth. Signal: the corruption-control indicator actually improving.
127
2027 budget cycle — Tighter advance-payment and procedure rules for major state procurement
Medium
Active
Whether advances of around 50 percent become conditional on a bank guarantee or performance bond, and whether payment becomes milestone-based against verified delivery.
128
2027 budget year — Mandatory value-ratio disclosure for large infrastructure contracts
Medium
Active
Whether the ratio of public money paid out to independently surveyed delivered value becomes available in machine-readable, real-time form. This is the most direct efficiency measure of a contract.
129
By 2027 — Full transparency of state banking exposure
Medium
Active
Whether state banks’ loans, bonds and guarantees become available at project level on machine-readable sheets: beneficiary, amount, guarantee size, risk rating, performance.
130
By 2027 — Strengthened tax authority with rule-of-law guarantees and rule-based asset checks
Medium
Active
Whether the extended tax-authority powers operate under judicial control, proportionality and purpose limitation, on a machine-readable asset-declaration basis applying equally to everyone.
131
From 2027 — Real-time public spending dashboard for grant decisions
Medium
Active
Whether every state grant decision appears in searchable form at the moment of the decision, with automatic anomaly alerts for unusual timing and conflicted beneficiaries.
132
2028 — Independent investigative capacity for cases involving government
Medium
Active
Whether an operationally independent bureau on the Singaporean CPIB model is set up, able to investigate any official or politician, under strong legality and parliamentary control.
133
By 2028 — Politically independent corruption investigation with full legal guarantees
Medium
Active
Whether a bureau independent of government, able to investigate any official or minister, is set up — while coercive measures remain decided by courts.
134
In the founding act — Explicit procedural guarantees in the asset-recovery act
High
Active
Whether the founding act sets out the standard of proof, the allocation of the burden of proof, judicial review and the boundary with prosecutorial competence.
135
The authority’s first day of operation — Public case dashboard from the asset-recovery authority’s first day
High
Active
Whether from day one the authority publishes the number of pending cases, the value of seized, secured and finally recovered assets, and its own running costs.
136
When the institution is established — National Asset Recovery and Protection Office (NVVH) with rule-of-law guarantees and judicial control
Medium
Active
Whether the law governing the NVVH mandatorily includes judicial review, property protection, the presumption of innocence and public, machine-readable disclosure of every asset measure.
137
Immediately (for the transitional period) — Statutory, targeted KEKVA asset freeze instead of an appeal
High
Active
Whether a statutory, itemised asset freeze replacing the prime-ministerial appeal is created — one that is legally enforceable and open to legal remedy, not merely a political call.
138
Immediate — Full public-funds transparency for asset-managing foundations
High
Active
Track whether state-funded foundations publish the grants they receive and how the money is spent in real time, in machine-readable form. A searchable public record is the sign it has been delivered.
139
Immediate — Settling the minister’s oil holding: sale, blind trust or recusal
High
Active
Whether the decision-maker settles a private holding in a market he regulates through one of the three accepted forms — a party-neutral standard applying to every government.
140
Immediate launch — Real-time, machine-readable public-spending tracking for EU funds
High
Active
Watch whether a public, machine-readable record (beneficiary, amount, procurement, timeline) launches for every EU-funded project, with mandatory cost-benefit analysis and a clawback clause above HUF 500m.
141
Ongoing — Rule-based, judicially reviewable asset restructuring
Medium
Active
Fulfilled when every leadership change and asset decision rests on documented, individualized grounds and everyone affected has a right to appeal. Hands-on, discretionary restructuring with decisions successfully challenged is the bad sign.
142
Ongoing (from first drawdown) — Every EU-funded project into a public, searchable database
Medium
Active
Track whether every EU-funded project launches with a public, machine-readable data sheet (beneficiary, amount, purpose, deadline, procurement, status) and whether the irregularity rate falls. The target is 100% project disclosure.
143
Institution-building cycle — Reclaiming withdrawn public assets via judicial (not political) procedure
Medium
Active
The 16th amendment enabled reclaiming withdrawn public assets; what share of reclaimed assets is decided by a court (not an administrative/political body), and whether the fate of recovered assets is traceable on a public, itemised data sheet — otherwise the recovery becomes a mirror image of the old discretion.
144
Legislative cycle — Mandatory, public lobbying register
Medium
Active
Whether a mandatory, public lobbying register is introduced (who consulted whom, about what) to make trading in influence transparent; the structural-prevention pillar of the Óbuda (KNYF) investigation wave. Signal: the register’s existence and coverage.
145
Within the legislative cycle — Legal-status guarantees for heads of independent authorities (exhaustive removal grounds)
Medium
Active
Whether a statutory rule is enacted on removing heads of independent authorities (exhaustive grounds, fixed term, judicial review), and whether the Integrity Authority investigative activity continues even while its president is under indictment.
146
2026-06-30 — Impartial, externally controlled investigation in the gold-convoy case
Medium
Active
Whether the irregularity revealed in the tax-authority report (the gold convoy, the prosecutor-general’s procedure) is investigated with independent external control (State Audit Office, and if needed EPPO) under a documented, public procedure — so the high-profile step lands as rule-of-law accountability, not political revenge.
147
Legislative cycle — Anomaly detector and public data sheets for cultural grants
Low
Active
Watch whether the procurement anomaly detector is extended to cultural grants (flagging recurring winner pairs, company-web payments) and decisions appear on machine-readable public data sheets. Fulfilment signal: a working detector and searchable public-fund dashboard.
148
90 days from Chinese approval — Budapest-Belgrade: full, machine-readable contract disclosure
High
Active
Watch whether the full loan and contractor agreements are published in structured, machine-readable form (interest, currency, return-on-investment inputs), not just excerpts. Fulfilment: 100% disclosure within 90 days of Chinese sign-off.
149
From the next budget year — Real-time public-money dashboard and machine-readable asset declarations for state-owned companies
Low
Active
Whether real-time, machine-readable disclosure of state companies’ discretionary subsidies and board remuneration is available, and whether 100 percent of public-life asset declarations are in machine-readable, cross-checked format.
150
Start of next fiscal year — KEKVA: public, machine-readable university asset management
Medium
Active
Watch whether university asset-management foundations publish, in machine-readable form, managed assets, yields, transferred and withheld sums, and decision rationales (cf. Tokaj-Hegyalja HUF 1.27bn). Target: 100% from the next fiscal year.
151
Next caretaker period — Statutory spending limit for the caretaker period
High
Active
Whether a statutory limit covers the period between the election and the new government taking office: above a threshold, no irreversible non-repayable funding decision may be taken.
152
Within 30 days of contract — Public winner data sheets for the HUF 540bn energy calls
High
Active
Whether the evaluation criteria of the two energy calls (HUF 540bn) are public before the application window, and whether every winner gets a public data sheet within 30 days of signing.
153
Before the final vote — Control package written into the asset-recovery bill
High
Active
Whether the text gains fast-track judicial review of every substantive act of the authority, an annual case-level report to Parliament, and a time limit plus judicial approval for asset supervisors.
154
Annual (KPI) — Documented methodology for the corruption-loss estimate
Low
Active
Whether a documented methodology for the corruption-loss estimate is published (base, year, margin of error), and what share of the Authority reports become substantive prosecutorial proceedings.
155
Autumn session — Tabling the revolving-door and lobbying bills in the autumn session
High
Active
Whether the government tables the two items the report found missing: comprehensive lobbying rules (public register, meeting logs) and revolving-door rules with a cooling-off period.
156
First half-year of the register — Published, proportionate sanction tiers and self-cleaning reasoning
Medium
Active
Whether the authority sets out in advance and in public the tiers of exclusion periods, tied to the gravity of the offence established by final judgment, and publishes self-cleaning decisions — both upholding and removal — with anonymised but substantive reasoning.
157
Autumn 2026 (as part of the bill) — Published criteria for granting and withdrawing priority-investment status
Medium
Active
Whether the suspension bill put to public consultation also sets the substantive conditions of the legal instrument — pre-published, measurable criteria and mandatory public written reasoning for every individual decision, naming which condition was met or breached.
158
By submission of the bill — Quantified housing-supply impact assessment for the suspension
Medium
Active
Whether a short public estimate is produced with four figures: how many dwellings are affected in the 33 suspended projects, how many of these would have been completed in 2027 and 2028, the expected delay in months, and the likely effect on Budapest and suburban house and rental prices.
159
From the next recruitment round — Numerical eligibility requirements in every state leadership vacancy notice
Medium
Active
Whether the recent MÁV chief-landscape-architect notice becomes the minimum standard for every state and state-owned company leadership post: numerically stated eligibility requirements published in advance, a professional justification for the post, and an application deadline closing at least twenty calendar days before the decision.
160
Immediately applicable — Itemised justification duty for refusing information requests
High
Active
Whether every refusal of a freedom-of-information request cites the specific statutory provision, the data range concerned and the date until which the restriction applies — a blanket reference to an “ongoing investigation” does not meet this.
161
Early 2027 — Semi-annual impact report on the procurement blacklist
Low
Active
Whether the semi-annual report appears with four figures: how many entities are listed and what contract volume stands behind them, in how many procedures it led to an actual exclusion, how many self-cleaning cases were launched and with what outcome, and what share of challenged entries survived.
162
First half of 2027 — Public, retroactive register of priority investments
Low
Active
Whether a machine-readable register is set up covering, retroactively to the instrument’s introduction, the date and legal source of each designation, the investor and its beneficial owner, the procedural privileges used, the project’s status, and the fact and reason of any withdrawal.
163
Q1 2027 — Closed reviews fed into the public-spending dashboard
Low
Active
Whether a structured, machine-readable summary of every closed state review reaches the public-spending dashboard: contract identifiers and values, the type of finding, the action taken and any amount reclaimed — making visible whether a review had substantive consequences.
164
By the next ethics-code review — Ethical limit on political messaging built on live investigations
Medium
Active
Whether the executive’s code of ethics states, in enforceable terms, that claims of guilt built on the substance of a pending investigation may not serve as campaign material. Target: in writing by mid-2027.
165
Alongside preparation of the statute — Safeguards package for the independent anti-corruption bureau
High
Active
If a bill on the Singapore-style bureau is drafted, whether it carries appointment, reporting and review safeguards — a body with strong investigative powers holds exactly the discretion the gold-convoy case exposed.
166
In the next procedural-law amendment package — Cost-allocation rule for successful freedom-of-information suits
Medium
Active
Whether a rule places the cost of a successful data-access suit on the institution that withheld the data — today refusal carries no real price for the institution, while the applicant must bear the cost and delay of litigation upfront.
167
On submission of the bill — Guarantee-pairing table for the bill speeding up asset recovery proceedings
Medium
Active
Whether the bill accelerating asset recovery proceedings carries an itemised annex that pairs every shortened deadline or simplified step with a named safeguard preserving equality of arms for the defence.
168
On adoption of the amendment — No retroactive effect in the procedural acceleration amendment
Medium
Active
Whether the amendment states that tougher or rights-narrowing provisions do not apply to pending proceedings, and whether it requires investigating authorities and the prosecution service to publish annual case-group-level procedural statistics.
169
By submission of the 2027 budget — Procedural capacity plan for large asset and corruption cases
High
Active
Whether a public plan quantifies the investigator, prosecutor and judge posts needed for economic and corruption cases, the IT cost of handling very large case files and the shortfall in forensic experts.
170
By adoption of the next MFB strategy — Public eligibility rules for MFB interest-rate equalisation
Medium
Active
Whether use of interest-rate equalisation is tied to predefined sectors and policy goals, caps on subsidy content per deal and per beneficiary, and mandatory screening of beneficial owners and links to politically exposed persons.
171
By adoption of the asset-transfer bill — Valuation and upkeep-cost rule for the capital’s asset transfer
Medium
Active
Whether the bill is amended to require a public, itemised valuation inventory of properties entering 99-year asset management, and to name who bears post-transfer upkeep and renovation costs, with an annual figure.
172
By the end of the next parliamentary session — Mandatory documented valuation method for state asset decisions
Medium
Active
Whether two independent valuations become mandatory for state asset sales and equipment leases above HUF 100 million, with any deviation beyond ten per cent from their average requiring public written justification.
173
Before the next licensing cycle — Public scoring of tobacco retail licences and measuring youth access
Low
Active
Whether new or vacated retail licences are awarded on published scoring criteria with applicants’ scores disclosed, free of political vetting, and all contacts logged in the lobbying register.
174
In the text of the act, before the first audit — One standard for all in the wealth audit
High
Active
Whether the act requires the same risk screening, with the same twenty-year look-back, to run on sitting ministers, state secretaries and MPs within the first twelve months as on former officeholders — with a public selection methodology and external oversight.
175
Before the final vote — The limit of retroactivity and prior constitutional review
High
Active
Whether the act states that the twenty-year look-back only checks tax due under the rules in force at the time, imposes no new obligation and revives no time-barred claim — and whether Parliament requests prior constitutional review before the final vote.
176
From entry into force — Names published only after a final decision, with relatives protected
High
Active
Whether the text ties publication of names to a final, legally binding tax shortfall of at least HUF 5 million — final meaning judicial review concluded — and keeps relatives’ names off every disclosure list.
177
Before the settlement is signed — A settlement ceiling and pre-signature disclosure in the motorway concession
High
Active
Whether the ministry commissions an independent assessment of the arbitration scenario — likely award, duration and cost — and makes that figure the public ceiling for any settlement, without demanding a waiver.
178
When the abolition bill is tabled — Succession timetable with no gap in supervision
Medium
Active
Will the cardinal-law bill abolishing the SZTFH carry an annex naming a successor and a start date for each power? Success means not a single day without supervision, pending proceedings and appeal deadlines carrying on uninterrupted, and registers staying accessible throughout.
179
When the abolition bill is tabled — Separating concession management from oversight, with safeguards
Medium
Active
Will the law prevent supervision from moving to the ministry that is renegotiating concessions in the same sector? Where EU law does not require an independent authority, the test is four safeguards: a fixed-term head, an annual report to Parliament, a searchable register of decisions and a revolving-door ban.
180
By the next amendment of the recovery office act — Reasoned, court-reviewable case takeovers by the asset recovery office
Medium
Active
Whether every case takeover comes with a written, reasoned decision and handover record shared with the transferring authority, the injured state body and the defence, and whether the next amendment adds judicial review of the office’s decisions.
181
During the parliamentary debate on the NAV examination bill — Procedural safeguards in the tax authority’s asset-growth checks on office-holders
Medium
Active
Whether Parliament amends the bill so that the person examined may comment on the draft closing document within 15 days, relatives’ bank data may be requested only on established risk with logging audited by the data protection authority (NAIH), the risk criteria are public, and statistics are broken down by government or opposition status.
182
Before the final vote — Uniform grace period for incumbent sports leaders, closing the re-election loophole
High
Active
Will Parliament amend the bill in the detailed debate so that leaders caught by the new incompatibility rule lose office at the end of a uniform grace period, such as six months, and re-elections held after the bill was tabled grant no exemption? Success means both elements are in the text adopted at the final vote.
183
Before the general debate, early November 2026 — Public-money threshold and a public impact assessment for sports conflict-of-interest rules
High
Active
Before the general debate, will the government publish an impact assessment showing how many organisations reach the 500-athlete threshold, how many more a test of HUF 100 million in annual public support would capture, and how many current leaders the ban affects? It should also examine whether mayors should be covered where their municipality funds the club.
184
Six months after entry into force — Public register of declarations and final exclusions in sport
Low
Active
Will the ministry responsible for sport publish, by organisation, by name and in machine-readable form, leaders’ declarations and final integrity exclusions, with the reason, duration and the funding decision behind each? The register should be matchable with subsidy data and list only final decisions.
5. Budgetary and economic milestones
The headline numbers of the 2027 budget arrived on 19–20 October: a 4.9 per cent deficit target, 2.4 per cent assumed growth and HUF 1,465 billion of spending cuts. The bill itself, however, had still not reached the National Assembly by 25 October. Older points therefore keep slipping, and the new ones mostly test whether the announced items can be counted on: writing the savings into chapter appropriations, a conditional line for concession and migration-fine items, and a ministry-by-ministry stop list. The pension, pay and housing points (indexing linked thresholds, a sectoral pay matrix, the Wekerle Plusz transitional rule) are the spending side of the same question: if the 4.9 per cent target rests on one-off or uncertain revenue, these commitments will be the first to be cut.
1
2026-09-30 — Targeted safety net for the 19,000 vulnerable debtors at phase-out
High
Delayed
Delayed: according to the Ministry of Finance on 5 October, talks with the Banking Association on phasing out the interest rate cap continue without agreement, so the cap stays in place. No targeted programme for the 19,000 vulnerable borrowers has been announced yet.
2
2026-10-01 — 2027 budget draft before the National Assembly
High
Delayed
Delayed: on 19 October the Prime Minister presented the headline figures of the 2027 budget in Parliament (a 4.9 percent deficit target and 2.4 percent growth), and the finance minister set out the spending side on 20 October. The bill had still not been tabled in Parliament by 25 October and is now expected at the end of the month. According to the central bank governor, the Fiscal Council had not formally received it as of 20 October.
3
2026-10-01 — Multi-year numerical deficit and debt path with an expenditure rule
High
Delayed
Delayed: on 19–20 October the government announced deficit targets of 4.9 percent for 2027 and 2.8 percent for 2030, and on 22 October Fitch projected debt peaking at 77.7 percent of GDP and a 5.4 percent deficit in 2027. A numerical path with an expenditure rule can only be verified once the bill, not yet tabled, is published.
4
2026-10-01 — Conditional EU revenues on a separate, published budget line
High
Delayed
Delayed: the 2027 budget bill had still not been tabled by 25 October. On 20 October the finance minister already counted the end of the migration fine towards the spending cuts, and on 23 October Norwegian funding of nearly 93 billion forints was confirmed. Whether conditional external revenue appears on a separate line will only be clear once the bill is tabled.
5
2026-10-01 — Public spending review timetable for the 2027 consolidation
High
Delayed
Delayed: on 20 October the finance minister outlined 1,465 billion forints of spending cuts, including a cut of at least 10 percent in the operating costs of ministries and state companies, and on 22 October a government decision published in the official gazette ordered a review of major sporting events held in 2022–2025. A public, chapter-by-chapter spending review schedule has still not been published.
6
2026-10-15 — Named, modelled drought-damage appropriation in the 2027 budget
High
Delayed
Delayed: the 2027 budget bill had still not been tabled by 25 October, so it cannot yet be checked whether it contains a named, modelled drought-damage line. The 2026 amendment promulgated on 21 October created a 500 billion forint Emergency Fund for drought and the energy crisis as a shared envelope, without a separate drought-damage model.
7
2026-10-31 — Dated return path to the 3% reference value
High
Active
Whether the October medium-term plan names a year for bringing the deficit below 3% and the annual adjustment in percentage points — without a date, raising the target is not an exception but a new baseline.
8
2026-10-31 — A separate budget line for ETS allowance revenue with a public spending rule
Medium
Active
Does the 2027 budget proposal show allowance auction revenue on its own revenue and expenditure lines, with a pre-set split between industrial decarbonisation and targeted household energy compensation?
9
2026-10-31 — Monthly machine-readable breakdown of the Treasury account and net financing need
Medium
Active
Do the Ministry of Finance and the debt management agency publish, alongside monthly fiscal data, the change in the Treasury Single Account broken down by deficit, net forint and FX issuance and EU items, plus the remaining net financing need and a stated buffer target?
10
2026-10-31 — Productivity-per-hour target in the medium-term budget plan
Medium
Active
Does the medium-term plan due in the second half of October set a numerical baseline and a path to 2030 for GDP per hour worked relative to the V4-plus-Romania average, with productivity-oriented spending items flagged?
11
2026-10-31 — A temporary liquidity facility for hauliers instead of price support
Medium
Active
Whether the government offers hauliers a time-limited liquidity instrument — state-guaranteed working-capital credit or deferred tax advances — rather than a per-litre price subsidy.
12
2026-10-31 — A common exit rule for the interest-rate cap and the retail margin cap
High
Active
Whether the Government, alongside the 2027 budget bill, adopts a single rule for all blanket price interventions: an exit threshold, a hard sunset date, at least 90 days’ notice and a public impact assessment 60 days before phase-out, with a stricter threshold for any reintroduction.
13
2026-10-31 — Item-by-item response to IMF and OECD recommendations in the 2027 budget
High
Active
Will the government attach to the 2027 budget bill a table recording, for each IMF recommendation and the OECD’s tax and pension recommendations, its decision, the reasoning, the fiscal impact and the distributional effect? Met if the annex also includes a financing statement on any external borrowing and the pre-financing needs of EU-funded projects.
14
2026-10-31 — The 2,200-billion saving written into chapter appropriations
High
Active
Whether at least 90 per cent of the saving appears in the submitted 2027 budget bill as cuts to chapter appropriations, with a measure-by-measure register that flags postponed investment separately. Release of the 300-billion forint reserve should depend on mid-year data, published by 31 July 2027, showing that at least half of the chapter savings have been delivered.
15
2026-10-31 — Concession and migration-fine savings shown as conditional lines in the 2027 budget
High
Active
Will the 2027 budget bill due at the end of the month list the HUF 246.1 billion concession saving and the HUF 135 billion migration-fine saving as separate, conditional items? Met if the concession line comes with a multi-year net table covering the termination payment and the cost of taking over operations, and the fine line names in advance how the gap will be covered if the daily penalty has not ended by Q1 2027.
16
2026-11-01 — Baby-loan grace period and instalment alternative for the 24,700 affected
Medium
Active
At the baby-loan childbearing deadline extended to 1 November, how many contracts meet the condition and how many families face lump-sum repayment; whether an instalment alternative opens.
17
2026-11-07 — Wekerle Plusz transition rule: a cut-off date for complete loan applications
High
Active
By 7 November, will the government announce the launch date of Wekerle Plusz and confirm that the cut-off for the 3 percent rate applies to submitting a complete loan application rather than signing the sale contract? The full rulebook, covering the interest subsidy, price and floor-area caps and eligible co-borrowers, should be out at least 30 days before launch.
18
2026-11-09 — Simplified heat-impact estimation module with published methodology
Medium
Active
Whether the finance ministry and the statistical office assemble a joint calculation module with four inputs — heat-alert days, monthly industrial output, agricultural yields and healthcare load — and publish the calculation method so the estimate can be contested and compared year on year.
19
2026-11-12 — Weekly public payment log before the 13 November diesel-subsidy instalment
High
Active
Will the National Tax and Customs Administration (NAV) and the Hungarian State Treasury launch a weekly payment log showing how many recipients were paid, the amounts transferred, pending applications and complaints, and average processing time? Met if the log goes live before the 13 November instalment and at least 95 per cent of payments in the 13 November and 7 December instalments arrive on time.
20
2026-11-15 — Sectoral pay matrix separating the gross rise from the tax effect
High
Active
Whether the annexes to the 2027 budget bill set out, for each public-sector field concerned, headcount, pay envelope, average gross rise, the month it takes effect and its distribution across pay bands. The net effect of the personal income tax (SZJA) cut should appear in a separate column, not folded into the gross figure.
21
2026-11-30 — Sectoral narrowing of the food margin cap
Medium
Active
Only a basic-food basket (bread, milk, eggs, margarine, sugar, flour); rest market-priced.
22
2026-11-30 — Tripartite wage coordination in place for the autumn bargaining season
Medium
Active
Whether a wage council with government, employers and unions is constituted, and whether it issues its first public annual wage guideline before the 2027 bargaining round.
23
2026-11-30 — Automatic indexation rule written into the minimum-pension statute
High
Active
Whether the enacted statute carries an automatic indexation rule — HUF 120,000 stays a one-off raise if maintaining its value is a political decision taken afresh each year.
24
2026-11-30 — Conditional revenue may only fund deferrable spending
Medium
Active
Whether the next planning round rules that conditional EU revenue may cover only deferrable expenditure — as cover for commitments creating lasting obligations the proposed target is zero.
25
2026-11-30 — Distribution report on the diesel subsidy before it expires
Medium
Active
Whether the finance ministry publishes by end-November how the HUF 20,000 payment was distributed by income decile, settlement type and access to public transport — derivable from existing tax records without new data collection.
26
2026-11-30 — First EDP revision log reconciling the spring and autumn 2026 notifications
Medium
Active
Will the Ministry of Finance publish a machine-readable table splitting the roughly HUF 2,000 billion rise in the expected 2026 deficit into macroeconomic revisions, new government decisions, previously unrecorded items and statistical reclassifications? And will the log then accompany every April and October notification?
27
2026-11-30 — First quarterly path account on the composition of the deficit
Medium
Active
Whether the Ministry of Finance publishes, for the third quarter, a breakdown of the change in the deficit into permanent spending cuts, deferred spending, interest costs and revenue, and reconciles the cash-based deficit with the 7.5 percent ESA target.
28
2026-11-30 — NAV property valuation model and draft wealth-tax return form
Medium
Active
Whether the National Tax and Customs Administration (NAV) publishes its national property valuation model and the draft wealth-tax return form, which the impact assessment itself names as preconditions for implementation.
29
2026-11-30 — Standing sectoral crisis-consultation forum with pre-set triggers
Medium
Active
Will the government set up, by resolution, a standing forum of national hauliers’, farmers’ and public-transport associations and the ministries concerned, convened by a pre-set signal rather than by protests, for instance when the average diesel price exceeds its 12-month average by 30 per cent for two consecutive weeks? Met if the forum meets within 72 hours of the trigger and publishes a summary within 48 hours.
30
2026-12-04 — Public qualification criteria for strategically prioritised proceedings
High
Active
Whether public, data-backed qualification criteria and mandatory reasoning appear within 90 days. Proposed target: reasoning attached to 100 per cent of designations issued from 2027.
31
2026-12-04 — Credibility summary for the medium-term fiscal plan before Fitch’s review
Medium
Active
Before Fitch’s review on 4 December, will the Ministry of Finance publish a one-page summary giving the year the debt ratio turns down, the share of the adjustment backed by identified measures and the size of a locked correction reserve? MIAK’s suggested target is that at least 80 percent of the 2027 adjustment rests on named measures.
32
2026-12-05 — Concession review protocol with an exit-cost estimate
Medium
Active
Whether a uniform review protocol — criteria, independent valuation and an exit-cost estimate — is produced within 90 days. Without it the net balance of termination — annual saving minus compensation, procedural and transitional operating costs — cannot be computed.
33
2026-12-15 — Pre-published formula for differentiating the 13th–14th month pension
Medium
Active
Whether a public formula for differentiating the 13th and 14th month pension appears before the 2027 budget debate — an announcement that not everyone gets the same is unpredictable without one.
34
2026-12-31 — Public account of how the flawed EU-SILC income indicators arose
Medium
Active
Whether a detailed, public account of how the flawed income and poverty indicators arose is published by end-2026, and whether the flawed data are withdrawn from the Eurostat database by then.
35
2026-12-31 — Euro-convergence parliamentary oversight committee (9 members)
Medium
Active
3 MNB + 3 PM + 3 independent economists (two-thirds parliament vote); quarterly convergence report; deficit path 2026: 4.5-5.0%, 2027: 3.5-4.0%, 2028: below 3.0%.
36
2026-12-31 — Constitutional settlement of the Fiscal Council’s veto
Medium
Active
Whether the framework reform is accompanied by an explicit, simultaneous amendment of Article 44 — otherwise statutory and constitutional rules diverge and create legal uncertainty.
37
2026-12-31 — Mandatory sunset date for every spending item under the escape clause
Medium
Active
Whether each spending item notified under the escape clause receives a sunset date in domestic law — expiring automatically absent a fresh decision, by end-2028 at the latest. Target: 100% from 2027.
38
2026-12-31 — Four design preconditions before the wealth-tax bill
High
Active
Whether the four documents are public before the debate on rates opens, starting with a valuation methodology built on a mass appraisal model — a base derived from actual transaction data rather than case-by-case estimates, and not left to a later implementing decree.
39
2026-12-31 — Quarterly publication of a conditional interest-rate path
Medium
Active
Whether a conditional rate path with an uncertainty band is published quarterly from Q4 2026, and whether the bank releases an annual accuracy record for its one-year inflation forecast.
40
2026-12-31 — No year-end spending rush from the Contingency Fund
Medium
Active
How much of the fund is left at year end, and does no more than 20 per cent of its use fall in the last six weeks of the year? A late-December surge would show the fund was run as a leftover pot rather than a crisis reserve.
41
2026-12-31 — Public inventory of “zombie commitments”
Medium
Active
Will a list appear of all investment and grant commitments based on government resolutions with no payments for at least 24 months, followed by a reasoned decision on each item by 31 March 2027? Cancelling them should not be booked as a cash saving.
42
2026-12-31 — Founding charter and multi-year funding contract for the regional transport authority
Medium
Active
Before the regional BKK launches on 1 January, will its founding document and an indexed, at least three-year 50:50 funding contract be made public? Do they include a deadlock-breaking rule, a consultation right for suburban municipalities and a minimum service standard?
43
2026-12-31 — One indexation rule for all benefit thresholds linked to the minimum pension
Medium
Active
Whether the promulgated regulations require the income thresholds of the old-age allowance, the minimum orphan and widow pensions and the disability base amount to rise each year together with pensions from 2028. A good sign would be a built-in review every two years of the minimum pension relative to the poverty line.
44
2026-12-31 — Net corporate-tax revenue after the global minimum tax, and public allowance criteria
Medium
Active
Whether the explanatory memorandum shows how many companies are affected, how many fall under the global minimum tax and the extra revenue net of the top-up tax it replaces. The other half is a decree, by the end of 2026, setting measurable conditions for the targeted development tax allowance, with every allowance granted published company by company.
45
2026-12-31 — Public allocation rules for the HUF 150 billion sports grant replacing tao
Medium
Active
Will the implementing rules specify how much of the HUF 150 billion in direct sports funding is distributed by a formula based on membership and results, and how much through open calls? Met if the rules also set out the role of independent assessors and conflict-of-interest safeguards, and a separate closing procedure settles the accounts of facilities built from the former tao corporate-tax allowance.
46
2026-12-31 — Statutory payment deadlines and automatic late interest on crisis support
Medium
Active
Will the government write payment deadlines into the decrees that set up crisis support, and table a matching amendment in Parliament for support established by statute? Met if, whenever the state misses a deadline, recipients automatically receive late-payment interest at the rate the tax authority charges, a rule extended to all future fuel relief for hauliers and farmers.
47
2027-01-01 — Structural wealth tax introduced
High
Active
Progressive (0.5%/1%/1.5%) wealth tax on net assets above HUF 500 M takes effect; NAV-led machine-readable asset register; top 1% supplying at least 80% of revenue.
48
2027-01-01 — Return of kata with an employment test
High
Active
HUF 18 M annual revenue cap; max 50% from one client; NAV revision audit; kata employment-test methodology by 1 September 2026.
49
2027-01-01 — Automatic, targeted food-price support instead of the margin cap
Medium
Active
Whether a rule takes effect so that, if annual food inflation exceeds 8 percent for three consecutive months, the bottom income quintile automatically receives a food supplement from the next quarter rather than the margin cap returning. Benchmark: at least 75 percent of payments should reach the target group.
50
2027-01-23 — Public cost-benefit analysis for the metro extension and the concession pillar
Medium
Active
Whether the metro extension and every element of the HUF 400bn concession package receive a public cost-benefit analysis (expected ridership, unit cost, alternatives).
51
2027-03-31 — Investment quota above 5.5% of GDP
Medium
Active
Government investment as a share of GDP (Eurostat ESA10) above 5.5% by Q1 2027.
52
2027-03-31 — Measurement infrastructure for the price–wage gap, with annual review
Low
Active
Whether a regular public series tracks the gap between Hungary’s price level and wage level relative to the EU average — price convergence alone does not show where catch-up actually stands.
53
2027-03-31 — Advance cost-bearing rule for outages at state-owned energy companies
Low
Active
Is a rule adopted whereby outage costs from risks already recorded in official documents are borne by the company and its owner, while unforeseeable costs go only to a named budget line and never into universal service prices?
54
2027-03-31 — Tax-expenditure inventory with revenue forgone and distributional impact
Medium
Active
Will the Ministry of Finance publish an inventory of all tax expenditures, showing for each item the annual revenue forgone, the number of beneficiaries and the split by income decile? Met if the inventory then becomes a standing annex to every budget bill.
55
2027-03-31 — Spending review of subsidised loan schemes and energy-price support
Medium
Active
Will the Ministry of Finance set up a spending review unit and publish its first report on two areas, giving each programme’s cost, objective, measured results and an exit scenario? Met if the proposed savings feed into the planning of the 2028 budget.
56
2027-03-31 — Persistent energy-shock scenario and an unemployment safeguard in the adjustment
Medium
Active
Will the medium-term plan include an adverse oil-price scenario with a pre-set order of spending cuts, and a safeguard that slows the adjustment if unemployment stays above 5.0 percent for three months running? The first public review, with an opinion from the Fiscal Council, should come by the end of March.
57
2027-03-31 — National, settlement-by-settlement inventory of municipal rental housing
Medium
Active
Will a public inventory show how many municipal rental flats are let, how many stand empty or uninhabitable and what it would cost to renovate them, with a standard data sheet and central funding for municipalities? A second signal is whether the first Wekerle rental housing call gives priority to renovating empty flats, judged by cost and time per flat ready to move into.
58
2027-04-28 — Universal child benefit fiscal impact assessment (Drucker audit)
High
Active
EUROMOD-based microsimulation impact assessment (NAV+KSH data join) of HUF 50 000/month universal child transfer; bottom three income deciles access ≥95% (vs. <50% for doubled family allowance).
59
2027-04-30 — Forint risk premium <100 bp vs. Czech-Polish
Medium
Active
Hungarian sovereign yield spread vs. Czech-Polish: from 200-250 bp → below 100 bp; 10-year HU-DE yield spread min. 80 bp lower within one year; CDS spread -30 bp by 2028.
60
2027-04-30 — First quarterly report on how the tobacco tax windfall is spent on health
Low
Active
Will the Ministry of Finance publish the extra excise revenue from tobacco alongside the health spending it funds, benchmarked against a pre-set health spending path without the tax rise? If the windfall merely replaces existing funding, the pledge is not met.
61
2027-04-30 — Ministry-by-ministry abandonment lists for the 10 per cent operating cut
Medium
Active
Will every ministry and state-owned company publish which activities it is ending or scaling back, and how much of its share of the savings each one delivers? Met if at least 70 per cent of the HUF 447 billion operating saving is tied to named tasks rather than simply to posts left vacant.
62
2027-04-30 — Quarterly take-up statistics for Wekerle Plusz loans
Low
Active
Will the Hungarian State Treasury (MÁK), using bank data, publish the first anonymised quarterly figures broken down by age, income decile, county, settlement type and new or second-hand home? A public review after 12 months should then assess the gap between the 3 and 5 percent rates and the age limit of 41.
63
2027-05-31 — Counter-cyclical use of the confidence window — debt reduction, not new spending
Medium
Active
Whether the savings from the stronger forint and lower spreads go to debt and deficit reduction rather than new spending; KPI: the 10-year government-bond spread stays durably low versus German and regional peers (amid the S&P negative outlook and the excessive-deficit procedure).
64
2027-05-31 — Energy-price subsidy on its own budget line and an inflation gauge without it
Low
Active
Whether the 2027 budget bill shows the full cost of the energy-price subsidy on a single named line, as a share of GDP and by energy carrier. Success means the Central Statistical Office (KSH), working with the Hungarian National Bank (MNB), publishes by 31 May 2027 the first quarterly, machine-readable indicator showing how consumer prices would differ at market energy prices.
65
2027-06-30 — Public rent-seeking audit of the energy sector
Low
Active
Watch whether the government commissions a public energy-sector rent audit mapping which regulatory features generate rents for whom. Fulfilled when the findings reach parliament to underpin a rules-based windfall-tax mechanism.
66
2027-06-30 — Ex-post impact assessment of the housing withdrawal from pension funds
Low
Active
Is there a published estimate, by income and age group, of the retirement savings lost through the HUF 105 billion paid out in 2025, using the 6.4 per cent 20-year median return?
67
2027-06-30 — Threshold-based exit from the mortgage rate cap with protection for vulnerable borrowers
Low
Active
Whether the rate cap ends by 30 June 2027 at the latest, or earlier once three-month BUBOR averages below 5 percent for three months, with a payment ceiling, free term extension and free switch to fixed rates for some 19,000 vulnerable borrowers in place beforehand. Benchmark: their 90-day arrears rate should not exceed the portfolio average by more than 2 points.
68
2027-06-30 — Loosely calibrated debt-to-income limit and interest-rate stress test
Low
Active
Whether the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) introduces a debt-to-income limit, a maximum maturity and an interest-rate stress test, calibrated so that only a small share of new loans is affected for now, with quarterly central bank data on new mortgages relative to income.
69
2027-06-30 — Deficit below 3 per cent by 2029 and a pre-election funding rule
Low
Active
Whether the Ministry of Finance medium-term plan commits to bringing the deficit below 3 per cent by 2029 at the latest, with at least two-thirds of the adjustment done by the end of 2028. The second half is met if Parliament enacts a rule that, in the 12 months before the 2030 election, any lasting spending increase or tax cut must name an equal offset, with a public opinion from the Fiscal Council.
70
2027-06-30 — Official annual tax-burden report by income decile and for the top 1 per cent
Low
Active
Whether the Ministry of Finance, the National Tax and Customs Administration (NAV) and the Central Statistical Office (KSH) publish a first official report on the total tax and contribution burden by decile and for the top 1 per cent, including capital-income allowances and a breakdown by family type. It should then be annexed to every budget bill, with anonymised data open to researchers.
71
2027-06-30 — Catch-up timetable for disability benefit recipients under 65
Low
Active
Whether the Government publishes a timetable for disability benefit recipients under 65 who are left out of the bracketed catch-up: how many people it concerns, how much money is involved and in what steps they can catch up. It should also taper the increase as earnings rise, so that taking up work never triggers a sudden loss of income.
72
2027-07-03 — Launch of a zero-base expenditure review (12 months)
Low
Active
Whether a zero-base review of larger budget items, working on the principle of organised discontinuation, is launched, with a mandatory re-measurement within 18 months for items above HUF 50 bn (Drucker audit).
73
2027-12-31 — General government deficit < 4.5% of GDP
High
Active
From the 2026 ~6.8% state; fiscal consolidation path.
74
2027-12-31 — Statutory pre-election fiscal report
Low
Active
Will the government table, and Parliament pass, a law requiring the Ministry of Finance to publish, no later than 60 days before an election, a report on the rolling deficit, the expected annual deficit and debt, unbudgeted commitments and conditional EU revenue? Will the Fiscal Council add a public opinion within 15 days?
75
2027-12-31 — Unit costs of Magyar Közút’s in-house works set against market prices
Low
Active
Will the state road operator Magyar Közút publish full-cost unit prices for its in-house works alongside the average price of comparable public tenders? Met if the construction unit keeps separate accounts, and any work whose in-house cost persistently exceeds the market price by more than 10 per cent goes back to open tender.
76
2028-01-01 — Statutory automatic indexation of the family allowance
Low
Active
Whether the 2027 amendment also mandates that the allowance rise each 1 January by at least the previous year’s consumer price index, with suspension possible only by a separate, reasoned act.
77
2028-12-31 — New social rental units per year — 2027: 5 000, 2028: 10 000
Medium
Active
New municipal/state social rental units registered on the housing data platform (EP2) annually; Otthon Start supply expansion instead of demand stimulation.
78
2028-12-31 — EEA fund (HUF 91.8 bn) commitment rate ≥70%
Low
Active
Previous cycle’s utilisation rate: ~75% — that is the reference.
79
by the detailed debate — A conditional-revenue flag on uncertain revenue lines
High
Active
Whether revenue lines not backed by contract get a conditional flag by the detailed debate. Without it the deficit path cannot be checked, because it is invisible how much is planning and how much is hope.
80
from the 2027 budget cycle — Mandatory project checklist for investments above HUF 20bn
Medium
Active
Whether a mandatory checklist is introduced for every state investment above HUF 20bn: ex-ante cost-benefit analysis, traffic or demand forecast, options appraisal. Proposed target: 100 per cent by 2028.
81
before termination is declared — Fixing the competition rules of the successor model
High
Active
Whether the successor model’s competition rules are fixed before termination is declared. With no model ready, the concession is simply replaced by another equally opaque construction.
82
throughout the insolvency proceedings — Creditor protection and state claim management instead of nationalisation
Medium
Active
The recovery rate on the state’s claim and the settlement rate of subcontractor claims will show whether the intervention was worth it. If the state becomes an owner instead of a creditor, the risk shifts to the budget.
83
by the first annual review — Publishing the funding path of the HUF 500bn pay settlement
Medium
Active
Whether the multi-year funding path is published, with annual review. With a one-off budget line, the pay scale’s second year becomes the risk, not its first.
84
from the close of the composition — Exit condition and a twelve-month ex-post assessment
Medium
Active
Whether it is fixed in advance when the strategic designation ends, and whether an assessment follows twelve months after the composition closes. The average duration of designations signals the risk of getting stuck.
85
by the 2027 budget bill — A single public public-service pay schedule
Medium
Active
Whether a single pay schedule covering every public-service sector appears by the time the 2027 budget bill is filed, with per-sector target pay, target dates and named funding. It needs a separate line for the job categories left out of earlier career-path raises.
86
from the 2028 budget cycle — Rule-based pay indexation instead of ad hoc bargains
Low
Active
Whether lawmakers set a pre-announced indexation formula for public-service pay that replaces annual ad hoc bargaining. A bad sign if raises stay announcement-driven.
87
third year after opening — Three-year outturn review and traceable reuse of the saving
Low
Active
Whether actual traffic is measured against the forecast in the third year after opening, and whether the HUF 76bn can be traced item by item into road-renewal projects, naming the road sections. Proposed target: 100 per cent in the first two years.
88
12-18 months — Ex post public accounting of the actual implementation cost of the county-name restoration
Low
Active
Whether the aggregate actual cost of the sign replacement (est. ~HUF 50 M), stamps and IT systems is disclosed, and how far it deviates from the prior estimate (target: ±15 percent).
89
12–18 months — Transition period for guarantee-dependent SMEs and a mandatory ex-post review
Low
Active
Whether firms whose working capital rests on guaranteed credit get a published, uniform transition period, and whether a mandatory 12–18-month ex-post review of rejected applications and SME credit stock follows.
90
12–18-month review cycle (2027–2028) — Green-digital conditionality with ex-post impact review
Low
Active
Watch whether EU funds are tied to measurable green and digital targets, whether expected versus actual results are compared after 12-18 months, and whether a clawback mechanism applies to underperforming projects.
91
12–24 months — Irregularity rate of EU-fund absorption (Estonian 0.5% benchmark)
Low
Active
Whether the irregularity rate of EU-funded projects falls towards the 0.5% Estonian benchmark, and whether a machine-readable public spending database is operational.
92
12–24 months — Expand housing supply via a public construction data platform
Medium
Active
Watch whether a public platform mapping permits, developments and rental stock by settlement is set up, and whether issued building permits and completed new homes rise meaningfully.
93
2026 — Turning the audit into a permanent, machine-readable open budget
Low
Active
Fulfilled if the one-off audit becomes a real-time, public, machine-readable budget (open data standard) that also exposes revenue assumptions. Signal: the count of later-discovered hidden outlays falling to zero.
94
2026 Q3-Q4 + 2027 Q1 — Three-step phase-out of the interest rate cap
High
Active
Partial → medium → full phase-out; targeted housing loan support for the bottom 30%.
95
Q4 2026 — Public KSH error log and correction protocol
Medium
Active
Whether a public error log is available that records the origin, detection and correction of every data error, and whether the turnaround time of corrections, from detection to fix, falls.
96
Autumn 2026 — Funding-disclosure obligation for every new transfer
Medium
Active
Every new/expanded benefit (back-to-school, pensioner support, pensioner SZÉP card, income-tax relief) gets an itemised, public funding disclosure on the public-money map; the savings from the public-sector pay cut as a separate, trackable item.
97
August 2026 — Targeting filter for the back-to-school benefit
Medium
Active
Whether the August back-to-school benefit gets an income/life-situation targeting filter, while eligibility remains automatic (without separate application) for the poorest households.
98
2026–2027 — Rule-based, countercyclical consolidation instead of austerity
Low
Active
Track whether the freed-up fiscal space goes toward cutting the debt path and rebuilding buffers rather than new permanent spending, and whether the primary balance improves.
99
2026–2028 — Phased, impact-assessed wind-down of special taxes
Low
Active
A good sign is a pre-announced, multi-step schedule for phasing out special taxes with a mandatory impact assessment before each step. Quietly introducing a new special tax mid-year is a bad sign.
100
2026–2028 — Anticyclical consolidation: primary balance improving year on year
Low
Active
A good sign is a primary balance (excluding interest) improving each year as a share of GDP, with debt-to-GDP turning downward and no new permanent spending commitments. A sudden procyclical austerity package is the bad sign.
101
2026–2028 — Pre-set ceiling on the FX share of public debt
Low
Active
Fulfilled when a ceiling on the FX-debt share of total public debt is announced and the spread on subsequent issuances narrows versus the current midswap +80 / +125 bps. Signal: machine-readable disclosure of every issuance’s terms.
102
2026–2028 — Fixed debt limit, fiscal brake and independent revenue validation
Low
Active
Fulfilled when breaching a statutory debt threshold triggers an automatic, pre-announced spending cap and an independent fiscal institution vets revenue plans in advance. Signal: uncollectable revenue can no longer enter the budget.
103
2027 — Rule-based debt-sustainability framework (G23) in place
Low
Active
Fulfilled once an annual public debt-sustainability report is published and an automatic fiscal brake tied to a debt/GDP threshold takes effect. Signal: a published, numeric threshold plus an early-warning system.
104
H2 2027 — House-price growth in mid-sized cities below inflation+2pp
Medium
Active
Mid-city house-price index monthly change vs. KSH inflation; the overheating risk gauge of the Otthon Start program.
105
2027 Q1 — 1-year government bond yield <6%
Medium
Active
Signal of improving market confidence; falling budget financing cost.
106
Spring 2027 — Annual public Smith audit of the tax system
Medium
Active
Whether scoring every tax against Adam Smith’s four maxims (certainty, convenience, economy, proportionality) becomes routine, with the worst performers publicly identified.
107
2027-2028 — General government deficit below 5% by 2027, near 3% by 2028 without austerity
Low
Active
Whether the GDP-proportionate deficit (currently above 8% without EU funds) falls to the target path without cutting essential services, and whether a realistic euro-accession timetable emerges.
108
2027 budget — Fixed debt-sustainability framework and automatic fiscal brake
Low
Active
Whether an annual public debt report, an early-warning system and an automatic fiscal brake tied to a debt threshold are introduced, balanced by a counter-cyclical stabiliser.
109
2027 budget — Medium-term expenditure rule and a public debt path
Medium
Active
Whether a multi-year numerical expenditure rule, an annual Debt Sustainability Report and an automatic consolidation trigger above a debt threshold are introduced.
110
2027 budget — Proportionate funding floor for micromobility and branch lines
Medium
Active
Whether a minimum share (8–10%) of the plan’s annual spending is reserved for cycling networks and feeder or branch-line development — often the most cost-effective investments.
111
2027 budget year — School-level procurement budget and ring-fenced operating cover
Medium
Active
Whether every institution gets its own small procurement and maintenance budget, and whether operating cost cover is ring-fenced from staff pay — in both directions.
112
May 2027 — Fulfilment of the 2% GDP-growth commitment
Medium
Active
Whether the 2% GDP growth committed by the PM is achieved within one year, per KSH quarterly data.
113
2030 — Absorbing at least 95% of the opened envelope
Low
Active
Watch whether the country absorbs at least 95% of the opened EU envelope by the relevant deadlines under the n+3 rule, without losing funds. Fulfilled when the absorption rate reaches 95%.
114
Concurrent with the legislative amendment — Mandatory ex ante implementation impact assessment for the county renaming
Medium
Active
Whether a proportionate, itemised implementation impact assessment and public cost estimate (affected signs, stamps, IT systems, real price, lead time) is produced concurrently with the legislative amendment restoring the county name.
115
With the first phase-out stage — Targeted compensation for the bottom two income deciles during phase-out
Medium
Active
Whether income-tested compensation starts alongside the first phase-out stage, indexed automatically to the statistical office’s cost-of-living data rather than set by discretionary decision.
116
Six months from criteria being met — Staged margin-cap phase-out with statutory sunset dates
Medium
Active
Whether the margin cap ends product group by product group, each stage carrying a sunset date fixed in law — the first stage covering groups where actual margins stayed persistently below the regulatory cap.
117
With the MFB act amendment — MFB as a politically independent, audited EU-fund manager
Medium
Active
A good sign is half of MFB’s governing board being independent experts with fixed mandates, a public balance sheet, an independent audit, and parliament holding genuine oversight of the bank’s EU-fund management.
118
Immediate — Activate macroprudential brakes and publish an overvaluation index
High
Active
Watch whether the central bank actively deploys loan-to-value and debt-service caps alongside rate cuts and launches a quarterly public housing overvaluation index by region. Falling overvaluation from ~22.5% signals progress.
119
Immediate — Central-bank independence and clean fiscal-monetary division of labour
High
Active
Watch whether the government refrains from overt or covert pressure on the rate path and stops claiming credit for the favourable inflation turn. The Monetary Council deciding on its own is the marker.
120
Announced, in progress — Full, public review of the Budapest–Belgrade railway line
Medium
Active
Whether the announced public review takes place, and whether the order of rail development is decided by passenger-traffic / passenger-km data rather than political bargaining.
121
Before the first disbursement round — Absorption-capacity programme for the most disadvantaged districts
Medium
Active
Whether, before the first disbursement round, the most disadvantaged districts get free grant/project-management mentoring and a pre-financing bridge, so funds do not get stuck in better-off regions.
122
Ongoing — Maintaining foreign-reserve adequacy
Medium
Active
Watch whether foreign reserves stay at a level satisfying the Guidotti-Greenspan rule, covering at least the external debt maturing within a year. Fulfilled if reserves do not fall below that threshold from their record high.
123
Ongoing — Keeping public debt on a sub-70% path
Low
Active
Watch whether the debt-to-GDP path is stable or falling, within the sub-70% band targeted by the sustainability framework. Fulfilled if the debt ratio durably trends toward that band.
124
Legislative cycle — Prepare legal framework for targeted, automatic energy price compensation
Medium
Active
Watch whether a targeted, income-proportional and automatic energy-price compensation framework emerges instead of a universal price cap. Fulfilment: codification of a time-limited, targeted support mechanism.
125
Legislative preparation — A constitutionally defensible, predictable wealth-tax model
Medium
Active
Whether the introduced wealth tax is built with a high threshold, a moderate (non-confiscatory) rate and pre-set rules; how many constitutional/legal objections arise, and whether actual revenue approaches the planned figure — the precondition for the structural wealth tax’s constitutional durability.
126
Continuous from disbursement — Public, settlement-level fund map with target indicators
Medium
Active
Whether the government publishes, in machine-readable settlement-level form, where each forint of the released funds goes, and whether every large project has a pre-set, accountable target indicator.
127
Next budget cycle — Export-market diversification and moving up the value chain
Medium
Active
Whether export promotion shifts towards higher value-added sectors serving several independent markets — so no single country’s tariff decision can tip the system.
128
Quarterly — EUR 16.4bn absorption tracking + public public-money dashboard
Medium
Active
Quarterly substantive progress reported on the unfrozen EUR 16.4bn envelope (projects approaching contracting, actual disbursement, bottlenecks), with a real-time, machine-readable public interface (beneficiary, amount, procurement ID, drawdown status). Risk: the government itself flagged that ~HUF 800 bn of support was lost earlier — whether a recurrence can be structurally ruled out.
129
Public exposure analysis — Quantified export-exposure analysis for the tariff threat
Medium
Active
Whether a public, machine-readable analysis is produced of which sectors, with what revenue and how many jobs, depend on the affected export chains — kept separate from the competition case.
130
Day of bill submission — EUROMOD-compatible income-tax microsimulation model
High
Active
Public, run by NAV’s independent research unit — precondition of the funding debate.
131
During the bill debate — A strengthened Fiscal Council: capacity instead of veto
High
Active
Whether, in exchange for losing its veto, the council gains a statutorily protected budget line, its own analytical staff, access to ministry models and a comply-or-explain duty on government.
132
Before final vote — Public, decile-level impact assessment for the rate-cap phase-out
Medium
Active
Whether the government publishes the distribution of instalment increases across the 216,000 affected contracts by income decile, loan-size band and maturity (a distribution, not an average) before the final vote.
133
Before the final vote — Public tax impact assessment for every element of the first tax package
High
Active
Whether the government publishes an itemised assessment: how many taxpayers are affected, what the five-year revenue effect is, and what administrative burden ends or arises.
134
Until the final vote — Public prioritisation matrix for every flagship project of the rail plan
High
Active
Whether the ministry publishes the ranking score and underlying calculation for every project above HUF 50bn, explaining deviations on a comply-or-explain basis.
135
Annual (first release) — Public annual euro-readiness scorecard
Medium
Active
Watch whether an annually refreshed public euro-readiness scorecard is produced, quantifying Hungary’s convergence across four dimensions: HICP inflation, deficit and debt path, and exchange-rate and interest-rate stability. Fulfilled when the first edition appears with figures in every dimension.
136
Annual review — Conditional, performance-linked, audited investment incentives
Medium
Active
Whether state investment incentives are tied to measurable commitments (local-supplier share, R&D content, export integration, net employment), time-limited, with an annual public review and clawback on non-performance — drawing on the lesson of the battery-industry exposure (the halted CATL expansion).
137
Autumn tax package — Predictability rule for sectoral levies: bands, sunset, annual review
Medium
Active
Whether every sectoral levy must have a tax base tied to an external market indicator, a statutory sunset date and an annual public review.
138
Autumn energy package — Predictability rule for fuel pricing: targeted, income-scaled compensation
Medium
Active
Whether targeted, income-scaled compensation with clear eligibility rules replaces the universal price cap, while prices stay at real market levels.
139
By submission of the 2027 budget bill — A separate heat-impact risk line in the budget bill
Medium
Active
Whether the risk chapter of the next budget bill contains a separate, quantified heat-impact item — the revenue shortfall and extra spending a summer like this year’s could cause, and with what probability — and whether the Fiscal Council’s opinion addresses it separately.
140
By submission of the 2027 budget — Pre-published fuel-shock protocol
Medium
Active
Whether the protocol is produced, mapping per-litre price thresholds to measures in four columns: which instrument activates, how long it stays in force with a mandatory sunset date, its monthly cost to the budget, and the source of funding — the fourth column is exactly what the Polish case lacked.
141
From the autumn 2026 session — Mandatory fiscal impact note for every budget amendment
Medium
Active
Whether every bill amending the budget act is accompanied by a public impact note of at most two pages: which appropriations change and by how much, the effect on the annual deficit and the debt path, and the commitment that justifies the amendment.
142
Concurrently with the application — Public summary of the energy-security escape-clause application
High
Active
Whether the government publishes the non-confidential summary of its application at the moment of filing — not after the Council decides: which measures, at what amount, against what energy-security output indicator, for which year.
143
2027 Q3 — Ex post distributional impact assessment of the diesel subsidy
Low
Active
Whether, within 12 months of launch, the take-up rate, total budget cost, distribution across income deciles and effect on diesel consumption are published.
144
2026 Q4 — Activation rule and itemised public accounting for the Contingency Fund
Medium
Active
Will the government publish, within 30 days of the amended budget act being promulgated, the trigger thresholds for the HUF 500 billion fund and a cap on what a single decision can reallocate? The sign of delivery: every payout disclosed in machine-readable form, by beneficiary and legal basis.
145
With the tabling of the 2027 budget bill — Public cost comparison of two family-allowance options
High
Active
Whether the government publishes, alongside the 2027 budget bill promised for late October, itemised costings for both universal doubling and a targeted first step covering low-income, single-parent and large families.
146
Together with the 2027 extension decision — An exposure criterion instead of engine power
Low
Active
If the subsidy continues into 2027, whether eligibility switches from the current engine-power threshold to household income combined with local public-transport access.
147
On signature of the agreement — Publicity minimum for the government–capital liquidity deal
High
Active
Whether the full text is published at signature: amount and legal basis, dated schedule, the capital’s quantified commitments, control points with reporting duties, and the consequence of non-performance.
148
Entering into force with the 2028 budget act — Predictability rule for municipal financing
Low
Active
Whether the solidarity levy’s rate and formula are fixed in advance over at least a three-year horizon, with mid-year changes taking effect only from the following budget year.
149
In the 2027 tax package — Separating casino concession fees from gambling tax
Low
Active
Whether the amendment ends the offsetting of concession fees against gambling tax, and publishes the fee formula, the underlying revenue data and the amounts actually paid each year.
150
By the tabling of the 2027 budget bill — A completeness rule for multi-year contractual commitments in the budget
High
Active
Whether the 2027 budget bill itemises multi-year contractual commitments — the omitted HUF 176 billion availability fee showed that a commitments register alone is useless if the budget may depart from it.
151
With the medium-term budget plan — An annual path and output indicators for the 2 per cent R&D target
Medium
Active
Whether the government publishes a year-by-year path from 1.31 to above 2 per cent of GDP in R&D spending, separating the expected public-sector and business contributions and attaching output indicators to each.
152
Alongside the 2027 budget — Framework programme performance yardstick and domestic research co-funding
Medium
Active
Whether the government sets a four-indicator annual benchmark (applications, success rate, Hungarian-led projects, funding won per researcher) against a 2021-2026 baseline, and earmarks money for Seal of Excellence proposals, bid preparation and matching funds.
153
With the submission of the 2027 budget bill — Consolidation map showing the impact on each income decile
Medium
Active
Will the government attach to the budget bill a single machine-readable table listing every revenue and spending measure above HUF 10 billion, with its balance effect, legal basis and a microsimulated breakdown by income decile? Met if the Fiscal Council reviews it and an updated version appears before the final vote.
154
With the submission of the 2027 budget bill — Yield-sensitivity and funding annex to the 2027 budget
Medium
Active
Will the Ministry of Finance attach a machine-readable annex showing how much 2027-28 interest spending would rise if yields stayed 50 or 100 basis points higher, and how much debt matures or reprices within 12 and 24 months? It should be updated quarterly and reviewed by the Fiscal Council.
155
On submission of the KATA bill — Public KATA entitlement table in the bill’s explanatory memorandum
Medium
Active
Will the explanatory memorandum show, for each monthly payment tier, how much pensionable service and benefit base full-time, side-job and retired KATA taxpayers earn compared with a minimum-wage employee — and place the anti-disguised-employment rule on the client side?
156
By submission of the 2027 budget bill — Joint impact assessment of the wealth tax and KATA
Medium
Active
Will the government attach to the budget bill a single assessment covering net wealth-tax revenue, revenue lost through the KATA expansion, the net balance and the change in long-term pension liabilities — with target values set in advance and checked publicly after 18 months?
157
When the budget supervisor is appointed — Written, public mandate for the Budapest budget supervisor
High
Active
Will the finance minister appoint the supervisor through a public mandate that limits the remit to the commitments in the agreement, requires two-way quarterly reports to the government and the City Assembly, and expires by the end of 2028 at the latest? Will those reports also track whether the government is meeting its own commitments?
158
Before the parking bill is tabled — District-level parking impact assessment and formula-based road fund
Medium
Active
Before the bill reaches Parliament, will three years of gross and net parking revenue for all 23 districts be published, along with a pre-set allocation formula for the road fund and a three-year, tapering transitional compensation for districts?
159
By submission of the 2027 budget bill — Promise-by-promise cost and funding table for the budget bill
High
Active
Will the government attach a machine-readable table listing every new commitment above HUF 20 billion with its 2027 cost, 2028-2030 impact, named funding source, number of people affected and decision status — and will the Fiscal Council review it before the final vote?
160
With the submission of the 2027 budget bill — Separating one-off and lasting budget effects of reclaimed foundation assets
Medium
Active
Whether the explanatory memorandum of the 2027 budget bill includes a dedicated table on reclaimed KEKVA assets: book and market value, one-off versus lasting budget effects, and their treatment under EU statistical rules. A good sign would be the Fiscal Council addressing it in its opinion.
161
Before the final vote on the 2027 budget bill — Fiscal Council’s independent deficit path forecast against the 3% euro criterion
Medium
Active
Whether the Fiscal Council publishes its own 2027–2030 deficit and debt path, stating in which year the deficit could fall below 3 percent, with risk scenarios for a yield shock and for the end of the tax exemption on retail government bonds, and whether the Government replies point by point.
162
On the day the wealth-tax bill is submitted — Public consultation account on the wealth-tax and KATA drafts
High
Active
Whether the Ministry of Finance publishes, on the day of submission, a typed summary of comments, the list of respondents and a point-by-point change log, with separate written reasoning on the three most contested issues: valuation of unlisted holdings, the order of property valuation methods and liquidity for SME owners.
163
With the submission of the wealth-tax and KATA bills — Fully completed impact assessments for the wealth-tax and KATA bills
High
Active
Whether the Government attaches impact assessments with no blank mandatory fields to the bills: annual revenue breakdown, the assumptions behind the estimate, compliance and National Tax and Customs Administration (NAV) enforcement costs in forints, and expected KATA entrants by group.
164
At least 15 days before any pre-financing loan is signed — Public justification and cost calculation before any EU pre-financing loan
Medium
Active
If the government borrows separately to pre-finance EU projects, will the Ministry of Finance and the Government Debt Management Agency (ÁKK) publish before signing the rationale, the full interest cost, a repayment schedule tied to EU reimbursements, the effect on the debt ratio and the full text of any conditions? The relevant parliamentary committee should also be briefed.
165
Before the final vote on the 2027 budget bill — Beneficiaries by bracket and region, and a cost path to 2030 including the 14th-month pension
Medium
Active
Whether the Ministry of Finance publishes the number of people in each of the six increase brackets, broken down by county and district, together with a 2027–2030 cost path that covers not only the minimum-pension package but also the 14th-month pension scenarios.
166
By the final vote on the 2027 budget bill — In-year deviation threshold and a sensitivity annex to the 2.4 per cent growth assumption
Medium
Active
Whether the budget law requires the Government to table offsetting measures within 60 days whenever the quarterly Ministry of Finance forecast puts the deficit more than 0.3 per cent of GDP above target, with a public Fiscal Council opinion. It should come with an annex showing how the deficit moves if growth, inflation or yields deviate by 1 percentage point.
167
Q1 2027 — Inspection and front-office posts exempted from the hiring freeze
Medium
Active
Will the government define a narrow, task-based set of critical posts in tax and consumer-protection inspection and at customer-service points that are exempt from the hiring freeze? Met if occupancy is published quarterly and the number of filled posts does not fall below the end-2026 level during 2027.
168
H1 2027 — Ring-fenced envelope, advance payments and application support for disadvantaged districts
Low
Active
Will the first call of the local communities programme area reserve at least 40 percent of the envelope for applicants in the most disadvantaged districts, pay small municipalities and NGOs at least half of their grant in advance, and offer free help with applications? Success means quarterly implementation reports and the 40 percent share actually reached by the end of 2027.
6. Energy security and diversification
Both overdue energy security points were missed. Neither the final report on the Danube emergency response nor the diesel supply stress test appeared, even though Ukrainian drones may have hit a key Russian station on the Druzhba pipeline on 20 October. The fortnightly winter preparedness report is therefore the last chance for supply-side transparency before the heating season. The home renovation and battery storage points hold the demand side to the same standard: without measured savings, a means-tested band and a controllability condition, the HUF 600 billion envelope risks becoming another unverifiable subsidy rather than an investment that cuts consumption.
1
2026-10-31 — A verifiable substitution timetable for the tariff exemption criterion
High
Active
Whether a submission-ready timetable with dated milestones is produced: when and at what capacity alternative routes come online, by how much the Russian source share falls each quarter, and which authority certifies the figure.
2
2026-10-31 — Energy price shock preparedness plan and annual shock-cost statement
Medium
Active
Is the plan annexed to the 2027 budget proposal, built on a severe Red Sea disruption scenario, with a single table showing what the year’s energy shocks cost and who paid: the state company, the budget or consumers?
3
2026-11-01 — Draft decree on winter heating in central government buildings
Medium
Active
Will a draft decree on heating temperatures in bodies under government control, with exemptions for health and education, go to public consultation — while street lighting, a local-government responsibility, is addressed only through a voluntary grant scheme in the 2027 budget bill?
4
2026-11-02 — A numerical target for storage and flexibility capacity
Medium
Active
Whether the next energy strategy contains a standalone storage target in gigawatt-hours and a separate figure for contracted demand-side flexibility, both expressed as a share of the prevailing evening peak load.
5
2026-11-03 — A regional simultaneity stress test
Medium
Active
Whether a public regional simultaneity calculation is produced showing what happens to the Hungarian evening peak when a heatwave hits every neighbouring system at once — replacing today’s tacit assumption of spare capacity next door.
6
2026-11-11 — Gradual phase-out of the protected fuel price
High
Active
6-month orderly phase-out with monthly price steps, targeted compensation (bottom 2 income deciles HUF 5-12 000/month + professional sector); GVH+MEKH joint HHI-based market concentration monitoring.
7
2026-11-15 — Public oil replacement timetable before the US exemption request
High
Active
Before asking Washington to extend the exemption, will the government publish the tested capacity of the Adriatic route, the refinery switchover schedule, a quarterly path for the Russian share of crude imports to the end of 2027 and the body that will certify the figures? Success means the request rests on that path rather than on the US-Russia diesel deal.
8
2026-11-15 — Public winter preparedness report updated every two weeks
High
Active
Will the minister for the economy and energy publish the first winter preparedness report and update it every two weeks until 31 March 2027? Met if it covers all five data sets, gas storage levels and contracted supply, heating costs by income decile, diesel and crude stocks in days, use of the Emergency (Havária) Fund and the status of crisis triggers, in plain language and machine-readable form.
9
2026-11-22 — MOL Százhalombatta technical conversion schedule
Medium
Active
The government + MOL phased non-Russian crude conversion schedule (CPC-Blend / brent / Libyan-Algerian), with 60-day accelerated environmental permitting; EUR 250-450 M CAPEX; framework talks within 6 months.
10
2026-11-22 — Household energy-price buffer package (Druzhba-conversion price cap)
Medium
Active
Temporary, SAO-audited Druzhba-conversion price cap (max 18 months) + targeted heating support (~HUF 30k/month, 200k households, ~HUF 30 bn/year); phase-out 31 March 2028.
11
2026-11-30 — Public forecast of the remaining storage refill — volume and price
High
Active
Whether the government publishes a volume and price forecast for the refill still to come before the heating season: how much gas is missing against the fill target, at what expected price, and the total volume and average price of positions already hedged.
12
2026-11-30 — Refinery-war scenario with a diesel-specific trigger and a ring-fenced reserve
Medium
Active
Whether the Ministry of Finance publishes a refinery-war branch of the energy price shock plan: a diesel crack-spread trigger with a public methodology, a separate scenario for another Druzhba pipeline outage, and a targeted, time-limited reserve for haulage, agriculture and intercity transport rather than a general price cap.
13
2026-11-30 — Controllability condition and a public waiting list for subsidised home batteries
Medium
Active
Will the amended conditions require, for applications already approved, a standard remotely controllable control unit and a smart meter, with voluntary, paid participation in grid balancing? A further signal is the ministry publishing how many applications are still pending and the order for the next round, giving priority to households that join grid balancing.
14
2026-12-31 — Pre-set price threshold for triggering industrial energy-cost relief
Medium
Active
Whether the 2027 legislative package carries the threshold, formula and sunset date for automatic industrial energy-cost relief — replacing the shifting terms of after-the-fact, case-by-case rescue packages.
15
2026-12-31 — A full-capacity test on the Adria route under independent supervision
Medium
Active
Whether both operators agree in writing by year-end on the test protocol — load level, duration, crude grades, winter and summer operation, measurement points — with an independent expert accepted by both sides overseeing it.
16
2026-12-31 — Contingency plan for a loss of southern gas supply
Medium
Active
Will a pre-agreed plan be in place to replace southern inflows via the TurkStream route through interconnections with Austria, Slovakia, Romania and Croatia if they are cut off?
17
2026-12-31 — Pre-set rule for releasing emergency oil stocks
Medium
Active
Will the government adopt a public resolution distinguishing domestic supply disruptions, coordinated IEA actions and purely domestic price management — allowing the last only above a fixed diesel-cover threshold — with a refill deadline and cost estimate attached to every release?
18
2026-12-31 — Fuel supply baseline that assumes no US diesel waiver
Medium
Active
Will the government revise the baseline of its energy-price shock preparedness plan so that it no longer counts on surplus Russian diesel staying on world markets, and instead assumes further EU curbs on Russian oil revenues? Met if the scenario puts numbers on the reserve requirement and the cost.
19
2026-12-31 — Measured savings in the home renovation call: certificates before and after
Medium
Active
Will the home renovation call require an independent energy certificate before and after the works, tie payment of the grant to the post-renovation certificate and track actual consumption for two years with household consent? The next signal is a first annual report at the end of 2027 comparing certified and measured savings and the cost per kilowatt-hour saved.
20
2027-01-01 — Income-based flat-rate energy support replacing blanket price subsidies
Medium
Active
Whether an automatic, flat payment for the bottom two income quintiles, based on tax-authority data and paid twice a year with a hardship route, is launched. Benchmark: at least 75 percent of the money should reach the target group.
21
2027-01-31 — Quarterly report on the origin of diesel imports
Medium
Active
Will the National Tax and Customs Administration (NAV) publish its first aggregated report on the countries of origin of diesel imports, the number of checks and the irregularities found? Met if the report is updated quarterly, allowing a comparison of the periods before and after the US deadline of 7 April 2027.
22
2027-03-31 — Quantified Paks II exit scenario — whichever way the decision goes
Medium
Active
Whether a public, numeric exit-scenario summary is produced on four items: sums already paid, sums recoverable under contract, penalty value, and the replacement capacity needed by 2035.
23
2027-03-31 — A new energy-security indicator: booked seaborne terminal capacity
High
Active
Whether the annual capacity booked at the Croatian and Greek terminals, the weighted average price and the remaining term are published — replacing the storage-fill percentage, which the current European situation shows is not the decisive factor. Route concentration is measured too.
24
2027-03-31 — Public hydrological N-1 criterion for Paks cooling-water supply
High
Active
Whether the security-of-supply report and the grid development plan carry a numeric operating boundary: at what Danube flow and level every unit remains operable without riverbed intervention, and at which level derating or shutdown becomes mandatory.
25
2027-03-31 — Detaching the oil-supply framework from contested bilateral disputes
Low
Active
Whether a Hungarian–Croatian framework covering supply only is concluded — long-term capacity booking, priority delivery if Druzhba fails, a public transit-fee method, time-bound expert dispute resolution — explicitly excluding the INA ownership dispute.
26
2027-05-09 — Fuel price-cap expiration date observed
High
Active
Binary indicator: did the cap (and de facto price accord) end on 9 May 2027, or was it extended? Fuel market HHI below 2500 by end 2027.
27
2027-06-30 — Sunset date and annual review for Hungary’s crude-oil exemption
Medium
Active
Whether the government moves to attach a sunset date or a public review date, with annual assessment, to the exemption for Russian crude via the Druzhba pipeline — open-ended since 2022.
28
2027-06-30 — Statutory, income-linked automatic household energy compensation
Low
Active
Is there a legal basis for the mechanism that, once the energy price index exceeds its 12-month average by 30 per cent, pays automatic support within 48 hours to households in the bottom 40 per cent income band, funded from the allowance revenue line?
29
2027-06-30 — Public report on home batteries actually installed
Low
Active
Will a report show how many batteries from the scheme are actually running, with what power and storage capacity, and what share of them helps balance the grid in the evening peak? The announced 285 MW is only a lower-bound estimate based on the smallest eligible unit, so the real figure is the test of the scheme’s value to the power system.
30
2027-12-31 — Cooling-water exposure audit and open cost-benefit analysis of the technical response
Low
Active
Whether an exposure audit is produced for every river-cooled plant, and whether cooling towers, renegotiated thermal limits and partial capacity replacement are compared in an open cost-benefit analysis.
31
2028-04-18 — Russian Urals crude share <40%
Low
Active
Measured at MOL refinery input; 2025 baseline: ~60%.
32
2028-05-15 — Strategic fuel reserve at 90-day level
High
Active
The released 575 million litre refill schedule over 24 months; 90-day import equivalent reached.
33
2028-12-31 — Druzhba import share ≤25%
Low
Active
The Russian crude import share falls from the 2025 ~58% to ≤25% by 2028 (28 pp); based on MEKH time series and JANAF capacity reporting.
34
2032-04-18 — Russian crude share <20%
Low
Active
Long-term diversification target; depends on LNG infrastructure capacity.
35
before the next call for applications — Retrospective energy-saving audit of renovation subsidies
Medium
Active
Whether an average saving figure backed by sampled measurement is available for closed renovation programmes before the next call. Without it the new call repeats the same blindness to impact.
36
2026–2029 — Automatic, threshold-triggered price-shock compensation mechanism
Low
Active
Fulfilled when a pre-defined price-shock threshold is set that automatically triggers targeted, temporary compensation without discretion. Signal: a published threshold and a built-in phase-out rule.
37
By H1 2027 — Voluntary time-of-use electricity tariffs for smart-metered households
Medium
Active
Whether time-of-use tariffs become available on an opt-in basis to every smart-metered household, with mandatory extension only after measured effects — smart meters currently cover 11 percent of households.
38
2027 planning cycle — Mandatory water-scarcity scenario in electricity capacity planning
Medium
Active
Whether capacity planning includes an annually reviewed water-scarcity scenario in three bands (normal year, prolonged drought, extreme drought with heat), with numerical assumptions for nuclear, renewable, gas and import capacity.
39
2027 planning cycle — An annual security-of-supply stress test before Parliament
Low
Active
Whether a mandatory annual public security-of-supply stress test enters law with at least three scenarios (heatwave without Paks, low import capacity, prolonged low wind) and a duty to report to Parliament.
40
By 2027 — Monitoring and protecting competitive conditions for independent filling stations
Medium
Active
Whether the competition authority runs continuous public margin monitoring, and whether price regulation squeezes out small operators — does the number of independent stations fall.
41
From 2027 — Cutting diesel dependence through the pace of the energy transition
Medium
Active
Whether the electrifiable transport segments (urban public transport, short-range fleets) are electrified on schedule without harming supply security.
42
2029 — Building a strategic gas reserve of at least 90 days
Low
Active
Fulfilled when the emergency gas reserve reaches at least 90 days of consumption. Signal: published reserve-level data staying consistently above the threshold.
43
2030 — Source and route diversification, cutting import dependence
Low
Active
A good sign is a falling share for the single largest supplier in energy imports alongside a rising domestic renewables share. Continued reliance on one source and one route is the bad sign.
44
By 2030 (parallel with investment) — Align grid and storage build-out with wind capacity
Medium
Active
Watch whether the EUR 1.5bn grid upgrade and HUF 480bn integration programme are scheduled in step with the wind tenders, and whether energy-storage capacity is built alongside.
45
On adoption of the legislative programme — Separating wholesale market opening from residential price protection
High
Active
Whether the government states, on adopting the legislative programme, that wholesale market structure and residential price regulation will reach Parliament in separate bills on separate timetables.
46
Before contract signature — Reference-class cost and schedule forecasting for large subprogrammes
Medium
Active
Whether every subprogramme above HUF 50bn gets a published forecast check before signature, drawing on the actual cost and schedule data of comparable completed domestic and European projects, with the gap explained in writing.
47
Before the rollout wave — A smart-meter data framework before mass rollout
Medium
Active
Whether a data-governance framework appears before the rollout wave: at what granularity (15, 30 or 60 minutes) consumption is recorded, how long it is stored, who may access it and for what purposes.
48
Immediate activation — Shock-preparedness checklist — 90-day gas reserve, 48-hour compensation
High
Active
Whether the government publicly itemises the strategic reserve (target: a 90-day gas reserve), and whether consumer compensation can be activated within 48 hours of a price spike.
49
Review framework — Public, quantified Paks-2 decision criteria + due diligence
Medium
Active
Following Rosatom’s 5 June 2026 letter, whether the government decides on continuation/modification on the basis of a pre-fixed, public, four-factor criteria set (lifetime cost, supplier dependency, supply security, climate-target fit), and whether it makes the findings of the independent due diligence public (except for classified business/national-security data).
50
By the heating season / 12–24 months — Targeted energy compensation + transparent price-cap phase-out timetable
Medium
Active
As a condition of the unfrozen EUR 16.4bn, the EU asks for the phase-out of the utility cuts / price cap (including the protected fuel price). MIAK benchmark: whether, instead of the general price cap, an income-proportionate transfer targeted to the lowest income deciles and a phased phase-out timetable with pre-announced expiry dates is created. Indicator: energy-support spending as a share of GDP, on a falling path.
51
Threshold-linked (on standby) — Targeted, sunset-clause compensation template for energy price shocks
Medium
Active
Whether a pre-drafted mechanism is prepared that activates only above a defined threshold — targeted help instead of universal price support, with a mandatory expiry date.
52
Multi-year — Expand energy-storage capacity to cover the summer peak (about 7300 MW)
Low
Active
Whether energy-storage capacity grows enough to cover the summer demand peak with a reserve, so that an output drop like the Paks curtailment does not create a supply risk.
53
Annual KPI (tracked through 2028) — Annual 200-500 MW energy storage expansion to cover heat peaks
Low
Active
Watch whether annual storage expansion reaches the proposed 200-500 MW band so the evening cooling peak (duck curve) can be managed via storage. Fulfilment: measurable yearly growth from the current ~50 MW.
54
As part of the cooling package — The temperature limit as a boundary condition of the Paks decision
High
Active
Whether the Paks cooling package is extended with an equally detailed plan for the temperature limit: continuously updated publication of measured Danube temperature at the gauge, the monthly output loss in megawatts caused by the limit, and a cost comparison of deeper water intake, a cooling tower and keeping the status quo.
55
From the next energy strategy update — Cooling-water exposure test for every power-plant decision
Low
Active
Whether every investment or lifetime-extension decision on a water-cooled plant above 300 MW will require a public, quantified water-availability forecast to the end of the planned lifetime, across several climate scenarios, naming the flow threshold below which the plant cannot operate.
56
On promulgation of the government decision — Public eligibility rule and automatic take-up for the diesel subsidy
High
Active
Whether the decision is published together with a precise definition of who qualifies, a per-recipient cap, and automatic payment based on linked state registers without a separate application.
57
In the subsidy legislation — Fixed expiry date and review points for the diesel subsidy
Medium
Active
Whether the legislation sets a calendar expiry date plus publicly reasoned reviews 30 days after the Százhalombatta refinery returns to full capacity and at the end of the heating season.
58
With MOL’s 2026 annual report — Public accounting of the Russian price gap and the switching cost
Low
Active
Whether the state shareholder moves at MOL’s general meeting for a separate disclosure of the profit from the Russian crude discount and the estimated extra cost of switching to seaborne crude.
59
With the 2027 energy policy report — An actor-neutral energy dependence benchmark
Low
Active
Whether the government sets a public numerical ceiling on the annual share of gas and oil imported from any single country, and applies it identically to every proposal — from a Hungarian governing party or a German opposition one alike.
60
By submission of the 2027 budget bill — Tiered regulated energy price limited to one metering point per home
High
Active
Will the government table an amendment, effective 1 May 2027, limiting the regulated price to a single metering point at a primary residence, adding a middle tier above average consumption, and quantifying the savings and the number of households affected?
61
With the 2027 budget bill — Needs-based band and a public funding table for the HUF 600 billion renovation scheme
Medium
Active
Will households in the bottom two income deciles get a higher grant share and a smaller loan, and will at least a quarter of the annual envelope go to buildings with the worst energy rating? Alongside the budget bill, the government should publish how the HUF 600 billion is split by year, by funding source and between grants and loans.
7. Media freedom and press independence
After the public media overhaul, frequency policy also changed course this week. On 19 October the Media Council apologised to Klubrádió and announced a new Budapest frequency tender, yet the media freedom framework law has still not reached the National Assembly. The sequence mirrors the public media CEO tender: individual redress comes before the general rule, so the framework law’s delay is not a formality. Until statutory guarantees exist, every new tender and appointment depends on the goodwill of whoever holds the majority on the regulatory board.
1
2026-08-25 — Media-freedom framework bill adoption (120 days)
High
Delayed
Delayed: on 19 October the Media Council apologised to Klubrádió and announced a new Budapest frequency tender, and on 20 October the Prime Minister announced a 61.3 billion forint cut in state funding for public media. The media freedom framework law has still not been put before Parliament.
2
2026-10-07 — Setting up an independent board and party-neutral appointment rules
Medium
Delayed
Delayed: on 7 October two governing-party MPs tabled resolutions to set up two new public media companies, with ownership rights exercised by the Independent Public Media Board. The board launched the tender for a chief executive on 13 October, and Parliament began debating the founding documents on 14 October. A balanced board composition based on several nominating bodies has not yet been settled.
3
2026-11-03 — Open competition for public-media news leadership posts
High
Active
Whether a public appointment rulebook is adopted for news leadership posts: mandatory publication of the call and a minimum deadline, publication of the professional programme, and a fixed composition for the selection panel.
4
2026-11-27 — Preserving the NMHH’s autonomous status on a clean legal basis (EMFA compliance)
Medium
Active
The budget commissioner’s appointment must not erode the NMHH’s autonomous status; the legal basis should be clean and EMFA-compliant — otherwise an EU media-freedom risk (the NMHH itself disputes the legality of the appointment).
5
2026-12-04 — Pre-set grounds for dismissal at state media companies
High
Active
Whether grounds for dismissing executives are fixed within 90 days, with mandatory written reasoning. Proposed target: public reasoning naming a ground for 100 per cent of dismissals.
6
2026-12-31 — Removal of non-compliant political ads by year-end
Medium
Active
Watch whether political ads non-compliant with the new media law (hate-inciting, dignity-violating) are removed by year-end. Fulfilment signal: the actual dismantling of banned ad carriers by the deadline.
7
2026-12-31 — Transparent MTVA funding and a party-neutral editorial code
Medium
Active
Fulfilled when MTVA’s full budget and production contracts are public in machine-readable form and news editing is bound by a balance-of-coverage code. Signal: an independent media monitor measuring editorial neutrality.
8
2026-12-31 — Fixing a pluralism-monitoring baseline year for the public-media overhaul
Medium
Active
Whether 2026 baseline values are recorded for source diversity and the mix of voices given airtime, so the first 2027 comparison is measurable — the relaunch of the news programme being the most easily reversible step.
9
2026-12-31 — Prior judicial authorisation for tracing journalists’ sources
Medium
Active
Whether the Government tables an amendment to the National Security Services Act requiring prior court approval and a three-part necessity test for any attempt to identify a source, including methods that currently need no external sign-off, with retroactive approval within 72 hours in emergencies.
10
2026-12-31 — Public finding by the parliamentary National Security Committee on the source-tracing case
Medium
Active
Whether Parliament’s National Security Committee establishes whether data were gathered to identify a source, who ordered it and on what legal basis, and publishes its conclusion without classified detail.
11
2026-12-31 — Statutory exit rules for media outlets taken into state ownership
Medium
Active
Whether the Government tables a bill handing ownership rights to a collegial asset manager, requiring a time-bound exit plan for each such company, and safeguarding archives and employee rights.
12
2026-12-31 — Public codebook and raw data for measuring public media balance
Medium
Active
Whether the Media Council publishes the sampling plan and codebook before the first measurement, then the raw coded data in machine-readable form, using two independent coding teams with inter-coder agreement of at least 0.8. Benchmark: at least one independent re-analysis by end-2027 within 5 percentage points.
13
2027-01-01 — Time-bound review route for refused information requests
Medium
Active
Whether ministries start quarterly reporting on the number of information requests received, granted and refused and the average handling time, and whether a fast, time-bound review route opens at the data-protection authority ahead of the court stage — so that plainly unfounded refusals do not turn into years of litigation.
14
2027-01-01 — Supplier concentration cap and public production procurement register
High
Active
Whether a rule holds that by end-2027 no single ownership group reaches 15% of external production spend — and whether a quarterly, machine-readable production procurement register exists, naming ultimate beneficial owners.
15
2027-01-01 — Rule-based state media funding and a public advertising register
Medium
Active
Whether a quarterly advertising register starts with the 2027 budget year, and whether the combined share of the three largest recipients of state advertising spend falls. The direction matters, not the absolute value.
16
2027-03-01 — After-the-fact notification and court remedy for those targeted in source hunts
Medium
Active
Whether rules take effect obliging the service to notify the journalist, the newsroom and anyone whose data was gathered within 12 months, allowing delays only by court order, and giving those affected a route to court to have unlawfully collected data erased.
17
2027-03-31 — Filling the Media Council vacancies and guaranteeing opposition seats
Low
Active
Whether a new, open nomination round involving professional bodies is held for the two empty seats, and whether the media law reserves at least a third of seats for opposition nominees, with professional delegates proposing candidates if deadlock persists.
18
2027-03-31 — A reasoned ownership decision on the future of Mandiner
Medium
Active
Whether the ministry exercising ownership rights issues a written, reasoned decision to close, sell or move the outlet into a public-service framework, having first requested and published the Media Council’s opinion on media pluralism.
19
2027-04-17 — Curatorium composition: 10/15 non-political appointments
Medium
Active
Measurable after the framework bill is implemented.
20
2027-04-17 — EU Media Pluralism Monitor political independence
Medium
Active
High → medium-low; annual EU measurement.
21
2027-05-15 — Public-media editorial-board pluralism
Medium
Active
Independent editorial board on at least 4 channels (government, parliamentary opposition, MTA, civil umbrella); RSF Press Freedom Index +20 places by 2029 vs. 2025 reference.
22
2027-05-31 — First annual statistics on covert measures affecting journalists
Low
Active
Whether the committee’s report shows, per service, how many source-tracing warrants were sought, granted and refused, and how many notifications were deferred. A near-zero refusal rate would suggest judicial oversight has become a rubber stamp.
23
2027-06-28 — Public media: indexed funding and public impartiality metrics
Medium
Active
Watch whether funding arrives via a law-fixed, GDP-proportional automatic formula and whether quarterly public impartiality metrics appear (uncut airtime, source diversity). Fulfilment: independently maintained metrics from Q1 2027.
24
2027-06-30 — Annual public media-pluralism measurement that also binds the incumbents
Medium
Active
Whether the first public, indicator-level Hungarian media-pluralism report appears — built on the Media Pluralism Monitor’s indicator structure with domestic adaptation — and whether its methodology is public.
25
2027-06-30 — Public media ownership register and annual concentration report
Low
Active
Whether the Media Council sets up a register tracing ownership to the ultimate natural person, linked to company-register data, and publishes a first annual report with concentration indices by segment and a breakdown of state advertising spend by outlet.
26
in pending procedures, immediately — Disclosing the funding source before a media acquisition is cleared
High
Active
Whether any competent authority makes disclosure of the funding source and ultimate beneficial owners a condition of clearance — and when. Without it the EMFA media-pluralism test stays formal.
27
before the board is constituted — Preventing the public-media board from operating short-handed
High
Active
How many of the six seats are filled by the time the board is constituted. The governing majority has signalled it can be constituted without opposition nominees — a short-handed start is the first test of the institutional guarantees. Proposed target: full complement within six months.
28
in the spring 2027 session — Statutory ban on using state funds to acquire media businesses
Medium
Active
Whether a statutory ban is adopted excluding the use of state funds to acquire media businesses. The measure of ownership transparency is how many providers meet machine-readable ownership disclosure.
29
Within 3 years (~2029); annual measurement — Annual media-concentration (HHI) measurement + TV-market HHI below 2500
Low
Active
Whether an annual, public, segment-by-segment media-concentration (HHI) measurement is launched; whether the TV market’s HHI falls below 2500 within three years, and whether at least five independent national newsrooms operate — the pluralism benchmark after the Mediaworks wind-down (closure of Bors, Ripost, Metropol).
30
By the next media law amendment — Procedural limits on revoking public-media appointments
Medium
Active
Whether the next media law amendment fixes two limits: a news leadership mandate may be revoked only with written, published reasons and only on a pre-defined ground.
31
When the final structure is established — Public media: party-neutral leader selection by broad consensus
Medium
Active
Watch whether the final public-media leader is chosen by broad parliamentary consensus (opposition veto or qualified majority), with a diverse board on cycle-independent mandates. Fulfilment: a documented process with opposition participation.
32
Immediately, until interim leader is appointed — Public media: publicly fix the powers of interim leadership
High
Active
Watch whether the interim leadership’s limited powers are publicly itemized: no contracts longer than one year, no mass layoffs, no restructuring of newsrooms. Fulfilment signal: zero irreversible decisions during the transition.
33
Legislative cycle — Transparent, statutory-formula-tied, multi-year public-media funding
Medium
Active
Whether the public-media budget is set for several years ahead by an objective formula fixed in law (ruling out funding withdrawal as a pressure tool), with a mandatory public impact assessment — the financial guarantee of editorial autonomy.
34
Legislative cycle — Balanced composition of the Independent Public Media Board instead of a 6:3 political majority
Medium
Active
Watch whether the nine-member Board’s political-professional ratio becomes balanced, members are elected by a two-thirds majority, and conflict-of-interest screening is mandatory. Fulfilment signal: the end of the 6:3 political majority.
35
During the Mediaworks restructuring — Social and press-freedom guarantees for the Mediaworks layoffs
Low
Active
Whether the planned 180–190-person layoff at Mediaworks runs as a fair collective procedure under the Labour Code, with statutory severance and retraining support, separated from the political dispute.
36
During the bill debate — A transparent, formula-based Press Fund instead of discretionary allocation
Medium
Active
Whether the Press Fund is allocated by a pre-set, objective, public formula and a reasoned application process, with a mandatory published beneficiary list — so allocation cannot become a lever of pressure.
37
By the next media-act amendment — Written editorial statute barring oral content instructions
High
Active
Whether the statute establishes that content instructions may be given only in writing, with an identifiable sender and a registered file number, that acting on an oral request is a breach, and that a complaint route exists outside the newsroom. Target: 100% written in the first full year.
38
Before the board is elected — Raising the media-board nomination and confirmation rules to statute
High
Active
Whether statute fixes objective, pre-published criteria for the nominating professional organisations, a two-thirds confirmation of professional nominees, and terms offset from the parliamentary cycle — or whether it stays mere practice.
39
Before the call for the public media CEO post is issued — Double-majority voting for the public media board’s strategic decisions
Medium
Active
Whether Parliament amends the media act so that choosing the CEO, the editorial charter, the annual plan and asset sales require two-thirds of filled seats plus at least one member from each nominating group, with an anti-boycott fallback.
8. Cultural funding and arts-fund reform
The cluster’s two cases — winding up the public-interest asset management foundations and restructuring the HUN-REN research network — coincide at one point: the reorganisation has begun while the powers of the interim leadership are nowhere fixed. A statutory minimum of researcher self-governance, and explicit limits on the interim presidency — no institute mergers, asset disposals or long-term commitments, and a fixed end date — would supply exactly the guarantees whose absence already had visible consequences in the foundation wind-down. The start of the academic year closed that pattern badly: teaching began, but not smoothly, after the termination of the Education Office and Déryné Programme contracts, the replacement of the film academy’s board, and this week the closure of the House of Terror.
1
2026-08-31 — Rule-of-law procedure for KEKVA dissolution (statute, debate, impact assessment, transition)
High
Delayed
Delayed: according to the Budapest-Capital Regional Court, the winding-up of the 14 dissolved foundations runs until 31 October. In early October the former founder of MCC announced that he would challenge the dissolution of the MCC Foundation before Hungarian and European courts. No prior impact assessment or public transition plan has appeared yet.
2
2026-10-30 — NKA PEP exclusion rule + retrospective audit obligation
Medium
Active
PEPs excluded from future calls; 4-year look-back window on 2010-2025 NKA items; PEP share separate chapter in the SAO annual report; PEP share among awardees target <2% (currently estimated 15-20%).
3
2027-01-01 — Culture and research funding on published criteria
Medium
Active
Whether a rules-based grant system replaces the closing foundation channels: scored assessment, a rotating and politically mixed review panel, published decisions and scores — with the discretionary share below 30% by 2028.
4
2027-05-01 — NKA asset recovery ≥HUF 50 bn (based on final court ruling)
Medium
Active
Civil asset-recovery proceedings on 2010-2025 NKA items; Hungarian State Treasury represents; only on final court ruling. Full HUF 100-300 bn over 3-5 years.
5
2027-06-16 — A cycle-independent, mutually binding conflict-of-interest regime for boards
Medium
Active
Whether a cycle-independent conflict-of-interest rule binding on both political sides (no active politician, party leader or government official may be a university board member) is written into law, and whether it is still in force 12 months on — the durable test of depoliticising university KEKVA boards.
6
By 2027 — Public open-data dashboard for cultural grants
Low
Active
Whether 100 percent of NKA decisions become available on a machine-readable, searchable public interface by 2027 (recipient, amount, purpose, jury reasoning), with an anomaly detector for awards above the requested sum.
7
From 2027 — Open, searchable database of all cultural funding
Medium
Active
Whether every state cultural grant — competitive and discretionary alike — enters a machine-readable database with beneficiary, amount, decision-maker, assessment reasoning and settlement status.
8
From the next application cycle — Public application criteria and independent juries for every NKA decision
Medium
Active
Whether the minister’s sole discretion ends: every NKA grant is decided by pre-published criteria and a named independent jury with conflict-of-interest declarations (target: jury-decided share above 90%, zero grants without a written application).
9
In progress — Rule-of-law ex post audit of past NKA lists (SAO)
Medium
Active
Whether the leaked HUF 400 million and earlier sole-discretion decisions are reviewed by an independent, itemised SAO audit (prosecution if needed), documenting which items met professional standards.
10
Legislative cycle — Public professional selection of board members + academic autonomy in law
Medium
Active
What share of new board members are chosen through a public, professional competition with senate participation, and whether university academic autonomy is enshrined in law — so that the board reshuffle does not merely flip the political sign.
11
Legislative cycle — Statutory cap on discretionary ministerial culture fund, data-platform allocation
Low
Active
Watch whether the share of discretionary ministerial-fund grants falls below a low statutory cap, with most funds moving to a public, jury-based application system. Fulfilment signal: a meaningful drop in the discretionary share.
12
Next NKA cycle — Cutting discretionary cultural funding below 30 percent
High
Active
Whether the share of individual, non-competitive funding falls below 30 percent, with the rest awarded through open calls under published criteria and a conflict-free jury.
13
Autumn transparency package — Strict separation of cultural funding and campaign finance
Medium
Active
Whether beneficiaries of cultural grants and the involvement of local politicians become cross-checkable, with stricter accounting for funds awarded in campaign periods.
14
In the bill promised for the autumn — Limits on HUN-REN’s interim leadership and a statutory minimum of researcher self-governance
Medium
Active
Whether the governing board bars irreversible structural decisions during the interim — institute mergers, asset disposals, long-term commitments — sets a fixed end date, and fills the permanent presidency by open international call.
9. Defence and the European defence pillar
The new defence points link the domestic side of hybrid threats to allied commitments. The sabotage of Starlink antennas showed that protecting ground infrastructure and preventing recruitment by hostile services are two sides of the same gap: there is no joint analysis cell to treat scattered incidents as a pattern. The Hungarian priorities to be set in NATO’s Political Guidance and an analytical contribution to the Black Sea situational picture test whether Hungary’s role becomes a written, accountable commitment or remains a series of ad hoc statements.
1
2026-10-31 — Public, quantified Hungarian SAFE decision document
High
Delayed
Delayed: on 25 September a European Commission spokesperson said that under Hungary’s updated plan the country will take EUR 5.4 billion in SAFE loans instead of the roughly EUR 16 billion planned earlier. The decision has therefore been made, but no public Hungarian document comparing the SAFE loan with alternative financing in figures has appeared.
2
2026-11-03 — An enabler exposure list — inventory of critical support capabilities
High
Active
Whether an itemised list is produced of the critical enabler capabilities (air-to-air refuelling, strategic lift, ISR, missile defence, precision munitions) where planning rests wholly on allied assets — with columns for European alternative, cost and lead time.
3
2026-11-06 — Monthly Danube and Black Sea exposure report with a rerouting threshold
High
Active
Whether the Ministry of Transport and Investment (KBM) issues its first exposure report on Hungarian Danube freight moving through Romanian ports, the war-risk shipping insurance premium and a preset threshold above which rail and road rerouting is triggered, followed by monthly machine-readable updates.
4
2026-11-06 — Mandate to review the handling of classified EU information
High
Active
Whether the Government commissions the National Security Authority responsible for classified information to review 2022–2026: who had access to EU and NATO classified material in the foreign ministry and at the top of government, and how that access was logged.
5
2026-11-14 — Conditional written Hungarian support for a NATO Black Sea command
High
Active
In a joint submission by the Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, will the government state in writing that Hungary backs the joint command on three conditions, and offer a concrete contribution? If that contribution counts as a deployment of the Hungarian Defence Forces, the government’s report to Parliament should set out the mission, headcount, cost and exit conditions.
6
2026-11-20 — Hungarian analytical contribution to NATO’s Black Sea situational picture
High
Active
Whether the Government decides, on a joint proposal from the Ministry of Defence and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, on Hungary’s contribution to NATO’s Black Sea situational picture: analysts, unmanned reconnaissance assets and shared air-picture data. Success means an unclassified summary of headcount, duration and cost, or an explanation of why nothing was offered.
7
2026-11-24 — Public project yardstick and project sheets for the SAFE loan
Medium
Active
Will the Ministry of Defence publish a yardstick for SAFE-funded projects covering NATO capability targets, interoperability, joint procurement, EU and domestic value added, and lifetime cost? Met if every project sheet is public before the loan agreement is signed and is discussed by Parliament’s defence committee.
8
2026-11-28 — Risk-based access and aircraft-securing minimum standard for airfields
High
Active
Whether a mandatory risk-based access and aircraft-securing standard for all public landing sites appears within 90 days — scrambling a Gripen after a stolen Cessna is the costliest answer to a cheaply closable gap.
9
2026-11-30 — Formalised Hungarian–Romanian joint airspace-alert cooperation
Medium
Active
After the 29 May 2026 Russian drone strike on Galați (Romania, a NATO member), whether a formalised Hungarian–Romanian joint alert and airspace-monitoring cooperation is established; KPI: whether it operates (yes/no) and the reaction time in a border incident.
10
2026-11-30 — Hungary’s priorities for NATO’s Political Guidance in an unclassified summary
Medium
Active
Whether the Ministry of Defence publishes an unclassified summary of the priorities Hungary pursues in the negotiations on NATO’s Political Guidance, including European intelligence and early-warning capability, the south-eastern flank and the future of the Kosovo Force (KFOR) contribution. The defence committee of the National Assembly should receive a full briefing in closed session.
11
2026-12-01 — Public attribution and communication protocol for domestic incidents
Medium
Active
Whether it is set down in writing within 90 days who may speak about a hybrid incident on Hungarian territory and at what evidentiary threshold, and whether it is tested annually in a simulation exercise.
12
2026-12-19 — Prevention campaign against sabotage recruitment and an anonymous tip line
Medium
Active
Whether the police crime-prevention service launches a warning campaign aimed at young adults, schools and parents about paid ‘small jobs’ that turn out to be sabotage, together with an anonymous reporting channel. Success means quarterly figures on reports received and on the investigations they lead to.
13
2026-12-31 — US troop count in Germany — falling below 25k
Medium
Active
Pentagon monthly data; if it falls below 25k by year-end 2026, the 20-25k withdrawal scenario is operationalising — Hungarian doctrine escalation trigger.
14
2026-12-31 — Defense procurement contract-review report
Medium
Active
Watch whether the defense ministry’s parliamentary state secretary delivers the review report on all 2022-2026 procurement and ministry contracts tied to the arms-development program. Fulfilled when the report is completed on schedule.
15
2026-12-31 — Written escalation ladder and annual public interception statistics
Medium
Active
Whether the airspace-policing escalation ladder is put in writing and annual figures show what share of incidents closed at the lowest rung — that ratio, not the raw number of scrambles, shows the system’s maturity.
16
2026-12-31 — Retrospective inventory of past defence consultancy contracts
Medium
Active
Will the Ministry of Defence compile an inventory of its pre-2026 consultancy contracts by value, deliverables and acceptance records? Where national security prevents disclosure, the reason for classification should be public and the relevant parliamentary committee should review the content in closed session.
17
2026-12-31 — Inventory of critical communication dependencies with a public summary
Medium
Active
Will a joint submission by the defence minister and the minister responsible for digitalisation produce an inventory of which communication and positioning services used by the Hungarian Defence Forces and critical infrastructure depend on a single non-European provider? Success means a public summary of how many systems are affected and when they will be replaced, plus a full closed-session briefing for the relevant parliamentary committees.
18
2027-01-01 — Public Hungarian airspace-violation procedure
Medium
Active
Whether a plain-language summary appears on the detection threshold, who decides on scrambling jets and on weapon use, and when and through what channel the public is informed.
19
2027-01-18 — Joint sabotage analysis group with written rules on competences
Medium
Active
Whether the Government sets down in writing how the police, the civilian national security services, the Military National Security Service and the Hungarian Defence Forces divide tasks when sabotage is suspected, and sets up a joint group that cross-checks cases. Fulfilment includes named contact points for Europol and Eurojust.
20
2027-01-31 — Hungarian consortium bid in the joint procurement track
Medium
Active
Whether a Hungarian firm appears as supplier or subcontractor in at least one SAFE joint procurement contract within 60 days of the second call opening.
21
2027-03-01 — Drone-defence audit of domestic critical infrastructure
Medium
Active
Whether the screening of airports and high-voltage substations is completed within 180 days, with a cost estimate for missing capabilities. For detection-to-intervention time the relevant order of magnitude is minutes, not hours.
22
2027-03-31 — Drone-defence responsibility matrix enacted in law
Low
Active
Whether a facility-type responsibility matrix is enacted in law — not in internal rules — naming the primary detector, the primary responder, who may order neutralisation, and the threshold at which a case passes to the other agency; treating military, civilian-critical and mixed sites separately.
23
2027-03-31 — Annual report on domestic supplier share in defence procurement
Low
Active
Whether an annual public report shows what share of defence procurement went to domestic manufacturers — Poland’s 90% is an upper reference, not a target, but without a metric the debate runs without numbers.
24
2027-03-31 — National hybrid incident register and physical sabotage scenarios
Low
Active
Will a register with common categories be set up for airspace violations, drone sightings, sabotage and major cyberattacks, published quarterly in delayed, aggregated form? Telecoms, energy and rail operators should be required to include physical sabotage in their risk assessments.
25
2027-03-31 — Valuation and sale rules for surplus military equipment
Medium
Active
Will a government decree require two independent specialist valuations, a public justification for any sale below their average, disclosure of a state intermediary’s mark-up and publication of sale details within 30 days — with classified elements reported to the relevant parliamentary committee?
26
2027-03-31 — Unclassified decision paper on counter-drone procurement
Medium
Active
Will the Ministry of Defence publish an unclassified paper setting out the selection criteria for counter-drone procurement, the expected unit cost of the laser weapon compared with existing air-defence systems, the share of domestic suppliers and which elements could be bought or developed jointly with EU partners?
27
2027-04-30 — Public summary of the information security review
Low
Active
Whether an unclassified public summary of the review appears after the detailed findings have gone to the National Assembly’s National Security Committee in closed session. The review is not a criminal procedure; any suspected offence is for the investigating authorities and the prosecution service to pursue.
28
2027-06-17 — Inter-ministerial geostrategic analytical capacity + a scenario-based crisis-management protocol
Medium
Active
Whether an inter-ministerial geostrategic analytical unit with semi-annual situation assessments is created, and whether a pre-developed, scenario-based crisis-management protocol (energy-price shock, refugee wave, regional escalation) is produced — so that Hungarian foreign policy becomes predictive and procedurally documented rather than reactive.
29
2027-06-30 — Machine-readable database of restricted zones around critical facilities
Medium
Active
Whether a public, machine-readable database of restricted zones around critical facilities exists by mid-2027, in a form flight-planning applications and onboard devices can ingest.
30
2027-07-01 — V4+ joint defence procurement frameworks (≥3)
High
Active
Munitions + air defence + counter-drone on a joint regional (V4+RO+HR) procurement platform; EDF Hungarian drawdown 2026-2030 cycle at least EUR 600 m; 30-50% unit-cost reduction.
31
2027-07-31 — Quarterly public report on regional airspace incidents
Low
Active
Whether a standardised quarterly report starts on events affecting Hungarian and neighbouring allied airspace: date, nature, response, attribution and the outcome of closed investigations.
32
2027-12-31 — Raising defence spending to 2.5% of GDP on a set schedule
Low
Active
Track whether defence spending climbs toward 2.5% of GDP by 2027 on the proposed multi-year, pre-set path rather than as a yearly political bargaining chip.
33
2028-05-30 — Drone-detection and airspace-monitoring coverage of the eastern border
Low
Active
Full drone-detection/airspace-monitoring coverage of the critical eastern border sections within 24 months, ideally within a joint European (HV4) procurement framework — the border-defence benchmark after drone strikes on NATO members.
34
2028-12-31 — Defence Budget Dashboard public-budget share above 70%
Low
Active
A public Defence Budget Dashboard; the publicly accessible share of the budget rising from ~30% to above 70% (procurement contracts, NATO capability targets made visible); productive-investment share above 40%.
35
2030-12-31 — Defence spending GDP share: 2.5% (2027), 3-3.5% (2030)
Medium
Active
Per NATO-standard annual report; given Pentagon-documented arms shortages, the upper band is more realistic; Poland’s 4.7% reference point.
36
2030-12-31 — Domestic defence production share ≥40%
Medium
Active
Share of domestic production in Hungarian defence procurement; 2026 baseline reviewed and locked; defence R&D 12-15% of total R&D by 2030.
37
2026–2030 — 40%+ domestic R&D and production share in defence spending growth
Low
Active
A good sign is the domestic R&D and manufacturing share of defence spending growth reaching 40%, meaning the money flows into home-grown development and jobs rather than pure imports.
38
Mid-2027 — Systemic screening of former officials’ foreign-relationship risks
Medium
Active
Whether a risk analysis with a clear legal basis and independent oversight is prepared on where the Russian and Chinese ties of post-2010 senior officials carry knowledge-transfer or influence risk.
39
2027 budget cycle — A multi-year defence spending path fixed in law
Medium
Active
Whether a defence spending path expressed as a share of GDP enters law with measurable annual capability targets — 2.5 percent by 2027, 3.5 percent by 2030, with at least 40 percent of the increment going to productive domestic investment.
40
From the 2027 annual report — Putting numbers behind the alliance credibility audit
Low
Active
Whether from the 2027 report the alliance credibility audit carries four figures: share of capability targets met, average procurement lead time, critical stock fill rate, and the share of joint European procurement in total purchasing.
41
Immediate — Predictable alliance commitment, fewer vetoes and blockages
High
Active
Watch whether Hungary’s vetoes and blockages in joint EU and NATO decisions decline, and whether Hungary stays a reliable, predictable ally on the decisive questions.
42
Ongoing (annual audit) — Predictable delivery of the Hungarian defence (NATO 2%) commitment independent of the national position
Medium
Active
Whether the defence contribution (drone financing, NATO 2%) is decoupled from the national position taken on other issues — that is, does not appear as a package deal that erodes alliance credibility.
43
Q1 2027 — Annual public hybrid-threat report
Low
Active
Whether an aggregate public report on domestic hybrid incidents appears: case numbers by type (airspace, cyber, sabotage, influence), the sectors affected, the average time from detection to notification, and the state of attribution — without operational detail or data from ongoing investigations.
44
First half of 2027 — Published eligibility framework for intelligence-service heads
Low
Active
Whether an eligibility framework is published for service heads and their deputies: minimum professional experience in years and field, verifiable management experience, completion of security vetting and conflict-of-interest screening before nomination, and the procedural order of submissions.
45
Q1 2027 — Unclassified national threat assessment and nationwide alert drill
Medium
Active
Will the Military National Security Service and the defence ministry publish a plain-language annual threat assessment using probability categories, with a checklist for citizens? Alongside it, a nationwide public alert drill should be held with the interior ministry’s disaster management service.
46
At the next substantive North Atlantic Council meeting — Concrete Hungarian offer for counter-drone defence on NATO’s eastern flank
High
Active
In response to the Romanian and Bulgarian requests, will the government make a concrete, public offer, such as training, intelligence data or opening its domestic test range for joint development? It is worth tracking whether the offer is delivered by mid-2027.
10. Climate adaptation and water management
Both overdue water management points were missed. Almost two months past its deadline there is still no daily water balance dashboard, and the permit file for the Paks riverbed sill has not been published. The two gaps are linked: without a water balance it cannot be verified whether the sill serves water retention or merely cooling for the nuclear plant. Until the tender for the head of the General Directorate of Water Management and the winter operating regime set measurable targets, the next drought will again catch the system in emergency mode.
1
2026-10-31 — Irrigation water capacity 120k ha at 2026 autumn sowing
High
Active
Realistically available irrigation water at 2026 autumn sowing min. 120k ha (current 100k); 5k farmers relief channel within 6 months.
2
2026-10-31 — Quarterly sectoral drought balance
Medium
Active
Whether a single-methodology balance is published for five sectors — agriculture, energy, logistics, drinking water and industry — with losses quantified in forint and an uncertainty range, in one comparable table.
3
2026-10-31 — Results-based public call for the head of the national water authority
High
Active
Will the call for the head of the General Directorate of Water Management (OVF) set at least three quantified targets, name a selection panel that includes an outside expert, and commit to publishing the winning candidate’s plan? It is also worth tracking whether the new head publishes a mandate programme within 60 days of appointment.
4
2026-11-02 — A duplication test and consolidation of water-sector data assets
Medium
Active
Whether a public task map appears showing who currently measures and models what across the water directorate, the research network, university faculties and the national laboratory — and whether scattered time series enter a single catalogue.
5
2026-11-07 — Public register of emergency-based river interventions
High
Active
Will the water authority launch a register listing, within 72 hours, every dredging, riverbed works or extraordinary water abstraction ordered on emergency grounds? Met if each entry carries a written justification of necessity and time limit, and an ex-post impact assessment follows within 90 days.
6
2026-11-13 — Agricultural insurance reform — mandatory base insurance
Medium
Active
50 ha+ mandatory base insurance (drought, frost, hail) + state catastrophe-risk pool (within 180 days); insurance penetration to 75% by 2028 (current 40%).
7
2026-11-14 — Hungarian–Slovak–Austrian discharge and sediment data sheet
Medium
Active
Whether a machine-readable joint data sheet is set up publishing daily discharge, water level and temperature at least at the Nagybajcs, Budapest, Paks and Mohács gauges, a quarterly sediment balance, in a uniform format with a downloadable historical series.
8
2026-11-17 — 2026 drought relief fund payout ratio 60%
High
Active
Paid amount / reported damage claims ratio min. 60% within 6 months; below 40% the implementation capacity must be reconsidered.
9
2026-11-30 — A public water allocation order with thresholds
High
Active
Whether the water authority publishes pre-set levels stating which user groups take priority in a scarcity period and at which measured water-level or flow threshold each restriction takes effect.
10
2026-11-30 — Rule-based drought relief tied to adaptation
Medium
Active
Will the government adopt an automatic relief rule triggered by an objective district-level harvest threshold, with a public formula and a cap, conditional on water-retention investment or crop insurance? A sign of delivery is first payments reaching farmers by 31 January 2027.
11
2026-11-30 — Public winter water-retention regime at every district water directorate
Medium
Active
Will each district water directorate publish which sluices, canal sections and reservoirs it is switching to water retention, with a target volume for each facility? The regime should also set in advance the water levels at which water must still be released to prevent inland flooding.
12
2026-11-30 — Consultation on the Water Premium calls and a spring launch
Medium
Active
Will the ministry responsible for agriculture put the two Water Premium calls out for public consultation by 30 November, so that applications open on 1 March 2027 and part of the payment is linked to the water actually retained? If Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) rules rule this out, the ministry should say so publicly and name a domestically funded interim scheme.
13
2026-12-31 — CAP Pillar II ≥25% climate-adaptation reallocation (~EUR 625 m)
High
Active
With Commission approval, reallocation of min. 25% of Hungary’s EUR 2.5 bn CAP Pillar II (~EUR 625 m) to climate adaptation priority. CAP climate-adaptation utilisation rate: 2026: 15%, 2027: 20%, 2030: 30%.
14
2026-12-31 — Publishing the hail-suppression system’s operating data
Medium
Active
Whether the hail-suppression operating log and rainfall data for the same periods appear in one place in downloadable form — replacing the two opposing press-statement claims now standing over whether operation and drought are linked.
15
2027-01-01 — Public register of industrial water-abstraction permits
Medium
Active
Whether the water directorates publish valid industrial abstraction permits in a single register: permit holder, location and source of abstraction, licensed annual and daily volumes, and any restriction condition — the register prohibits nothing, it only makes visible.
16
2027-01-01 — Public agricultural-damage data platform, broken down by municipality
Medium
Active
Whether the whole damage-claim process runs through the agricultural data platform, and whether the platform publishes anonymous municipality-level aggregates: hectares affected, damage assessed and amounts actually paid — available by mid-2027.
17
2027-01-07 — Drafting a heat-alert public-health action plan
Medium
Active
Track whether a uniform, pre-published heat-alert action plan is drafted within six months, tying accountable measures to HungaroMet’s alert levels, with its first live season next summer.
18
2027-03-31 — Rail reserve-capacity plan for inland-waterway outages
Low
Active
Whether the rail development programme’s planning documentation includes a dedicated chapter on how many train paths can be added at short notice on the main freight corridors, where the bottlenecks are, and what maintenance scheduling preserves that reserve during the summer months.
19
2027-04-01 — Ex-post impact protocol for the hail-suppression decision
Medium
Active
Whether an impact protocol for the hail-suppression system appears before the 2027 hail season — comparing the four counties still covered with those switched off, a natural experiment the current decision created by accident.
20
2027-04-01 — Designating the water-monitoring network as critical infrastructure
High
Active
Whether the 133-station drought and water-scarcity monitoring network receives the protection status due to critical assets, with a physical-security minimum and on-site signage explaining what each device measures. Measure: stations operating at season start, and vandalism cases.
21
2027-04-30 — Implementation report on winter water retention
Low
Active
Will every water directorate report how much water it held back over the winter against its target, in million cubic metres? Groundwater levels and reservoir storage at the end of March, compared with a year earlier, are worth tracking alongside it.
22
2027-05-03 — National Climate Adaptation Action Plan 2030 (NKACT-2030)
Medium
Active
Sectoral (agriculture, water, health, construction, energy) action tables with deadlines/owners; monthly public climate dashboard; annual Climate Adaptation Report to parliament (UK Climate Change Act 2008 model).
23
2027-05-31 — First annual water balance report to Parliament
Low
Active
Will the first report reach Parliament covering flows at critical Danube and Tisza gauging points, groundwater and key lake levels, water abstraction, the Paks cooling-water margin and a forint estimate of drought-related yield losses?
24
2027-05-31 — Pre-assessed catalogue of low-water interventions
Low
Active
Will the water administration adopt, after public consultation, a catalogue of typical low-water interventions backed by a strategic environmental assessment and a Natura 2000 appraisal? Met if each intervention type comes with a section-by-section sensitivity map, a list of no-go sites and a restoration obligation.
25
2027-06-01 — Deciding the legal status of the Danube sill, with an exit criterion
Medium
Active
Whether the government takes an express decision before the next low-water season on whether the stone sill built into the riverbed is temporary or permanent — with an exit criterion or a full impact-assessment duty, and cross-border consultation.
26
2027-06-30 — A quantified drought scenario in the macroeconomic forecast
Low
Active
Will the first drought-risk report appear, putting numbers on how a severe harvest failure would hit growth, tax revenue, farm exports and relief spending? The next step is a drought module in a domestic climate-economy model by the end of 2027.
27
2027-07-13 — Water retention and a community drought protocol
Low
Active
Whether a pre-agreed drought protocol is adopted: distribution rules, a priority order (drinking water, irrigation, industry) and graduated restriction thresholds — instead of decisions taken mid-crisis.
28
2027-07-17 — Real-time public water-resource data platform
Low
Active
Whether river, lake and groundwater stock data become available on a single machine-readable platform, together with drought-monitoring indicators and aggregate abstraction-permit data.
29
2027-07-30 — Public heat-vulnerability map and weekly excess-mortality reporting
Low
Active
Whether a municipality-level — in cities district-level — map is produced of heat-island intensity, social exposure and local health capacity, with weekly excess-mortality reporting by age group.
30
2027-07-31 — Public parcel- or settlement-level drought-damage and soil-moisture map
Low
Active
Whether a regularly updated map launches combining satellite vegetation data, soil-moisture measurements and reported damage on one platform — this is what makes relief targeted.
31
2027-12-31 — VAT-free irrigation equipment + Tisza-Great Plain catchment strategy
Medium
Active
VAT Act amendment + 60 small reservoirs + 200k ha water-conserving tillage (no-till, mulch, cover crop); target: irrigated area ~100k ha → +80-120k ha by end 2027.
32
2027-12-31 — Community watershed management — 5 pilot regions by 2027
Medium
Active
Watch whether community self-governed management of watershed regions (Tisza system, Lake Velence catchment) launches in 5 pilot regions by 2027, with transparent rules, monitoring and graduated sanctions.
33
2027-12-31 — Ostrom-style framework for irrigation communities and damage-based development
Low
Active
Whether at least five self-governing catchment-level irrigation communities form with working local rules, and whether development funds are allocated against drought-damage data.
34
2028-07-13 — Drought-resilient farming programme and climate-economic damage estimation
Low
Active
Whether drought-tolerant varieties and water-efficient, data-driven farming spread, and whether the domestic integrated climate-economy model delivers sector-level damage estimates.
35
2028-12-31 — Irrigation capacity 250k ha
Medium
Active
From current 100k ha to 250k ha; reservoir expansion along Tisza and Hortobágy; precision irrigation for <50 ha farms.
36
2028-12-31 — National Agro-Sensor Network — pulled forward by 24 months
Medium
Active
MG1 program point (1000 soil-sensor stations) scheduled build-out; real-time public API + Drought dashboard. 300 stations by end 2026, 700 by end 2027, 1000 by end 2028.
37
2029-12-31 — Groundwater monitoring 3000 wells
Low
Active
Currently ~1500 wells → 3000 with real-time public data; target: share of wells below 2022 historical minimum ~22% → <10% by 2030.
38
2026 (with the climate act) — Accountable, deadline-bound adaptation targets in the climate act
Medium
Active
A good sign is the climate act due this year carrying binding, deadline-bound, annually accountable adaptation targets rather than vague principles, paired with a working drought-damage insurance scheme.
39
2026 heat season — National heat-alert protocol and cooling of public institutions
High
Active
Whether a three-tier alert system tied to the meteorological service’s thresholds is created with a pre-defined package of measures, and whether cooling of schools, hospitals, nurseries and care homes begins.
40
2027 (from the next budget year) — Launch of a national water-retention and drought-adaptation programme
Low
Active
Watch whether a real water-retention system starts building from the next budget year: restored streams and reservoirs, channel reconstruction, and a rising number of catchment regions covered.
41
Summer 2027 — Cross-sector, quantified heat-alert protocol for the next summer season
Low
Active
Whether a tier-by-tier mandatory, quantified, cross-sector action package (health, schools, workplaces, transport) is produced with a public real-time data interface, replacing ad hoc prime-ministerial announcements with a pre-published rule set.
42
2027-2029 — Heat-resilient hospital and rail infrastructure programme
Low
Active
Whether the HUF 3.6 billion hospital climate retrofit continues through the announced 2027-2029 programme’s scheduled, accountable steps, and whether the number of rail sections under heat-related speed restrictions falls.
43
Before the 2027 heat season — A statutory package of measures tied to heat-alert levels
High
Active
Whether each of the three alert levels triggers an automatic statutory package — outdoor work rules, institutional procedures, water distribution, transport cooling — with normative state funding.
44
By the 2027 season — Turning the nine-percent saving into a lasting measure
Low
Active
Whether the campaign effect is built into durable feedback: whether water bills start showing a comparison with similar households, and whether utilities publish their annual network-loss trend.
45
2027 support year — Forward-shifted agricultural risk reduction instead of after-the-fact relief
Medium
Active
Whether the support system’s centre of gravity shifts: water-retaining agronomy as a condition of area payments, simplified irrigation licensing with abstraction caps, and index-based insurance products.
46
Summer 2027 season — Cross-sector, quantified heatwave alert protocol by next summer
Medium
Active
Watch whether each heat-alert tier gets a pre-defined, numeric cross-sector action package (hospital reserve capacity, work schedules, active outreach to vulnerable groups). Fulfilment signal: a public, real-time, auditable data interface.
47
From the next permitting cycle — Mandatory public expert opinion on large abstraction permits
Medium
Active
Whether above-threshold abstraction applications must obtain the centre’s published written opinion, with a duty to give reasons for departing from it — and whether the centre publishes the hit rate of its own past forecasts.
48
By the start of the next irrigation season — A municipal water-security index — public publication
Medium
Active
Whether a per-municipality water-security index appears from four public data points: network loss ratio, reserve capacity relative to daily peak demand, water-base type and exposure, and restriction days over the past three years.
49
At the moment of establishment — A mandatory data-publication annex in the founding legislation
High
Active
Whether the founding act carries an itemised annex on compulsory publication — daily water-level and temperature series, the register of abstraction permits, the restriction list, a national drought index — in a fixed format.
50
Immediate — Version-controlled public documentation for major water projects
High
Active
Whether every water-management plan above HUF 10bn — including rescue plans such as the Lake Velence one — is placed in a public, version-controlled repository.
51
First report by mid-2027 — Riverbed incision monitoring and a slow-down programme
Low
Active
Whether the water service starts annual, uniformly measured and cross-section-published monitoring of riverbed incision on the main river reaches, and whether an intervention plan with cost and impact estimates follows.
52
Legislative cycle — Real-time public water monitoring in every municipality
Medium
Active
Watch whether real-time public data on water pressure, reserve levels and quality becomes available for every municipality on a single national platform. Growing data coverage signals fulfilment.
53
Initiative in autumn 2026 — A prior-consultation protocol for Danube riverbed interventions
Medium
Active
Whether Hungary initiates a binding prior notification and consultation procedure among the Danube states ahead of any riverbed intervention that durably alters water sharing.
54
12 months from completion — Ex-post assessment and public cost accounting for the river sill
Low
Active
Whether a public ex-post assessment answers four questions: did the gauge stay above the minus 90 cm level; what did the works cost item by item against the HUF 6bn order of magnitude announced; is there a measurable environmental effect diverging from the Natura 2000 review’s forecast; and how much lost generation was avoided — including the accounting of the HUF 6.2bn drought-relief fund.
55
On submission of the climate bill — Public response table on comments received on the draft climate law
Medium
Active
When the bill goes to Parliament, will the government publish a summary of every comment received, stating whether it was accepted and, if not, why not?
11. Health reform and primary care
Health reform advanced this week through pay policy. On 19 October an average 17 per cent pay rise for health professionals was announced, and on 24–25 October the health minister outlined the 2027 pay settlement. Both overdue points are delayed because the wage figures are arriving before the reform bill and before a purpose-by-purpose plan for the extra HUF 500 billion. If pay is decoupled from the financing reform, most of the extra money will be absorbed by running costs, leaving no measurable envelope for value-based financing.
1
2026-09-01 — Healthcare reform draft before the National Assembly
High
Delayed
Delayed: on 24–25 October the health minister outlined on social media the plan for 2027 pay reform (an average 15 percent rise and a new pay scale for health workers), but no legislation has followed yet. A comprehensive health reform bill has still not been put before Parliament.
2
2026-10-15 — Allocation plan for the annual HUF 500bn health top-up
Medium
Delayed
Delayed: the 2027 budget bill had still not been tabled by 25 October. An average 17 percent pay rise for health workers was announced on 19 October and the minister gave details of the pay scale on 24–25 October, but a public, goal-by-goal allocation plan for the extra 500 billion forints has not yet appeared.
3
2026-10-31 — Waiting-list programme: unit cost and a success criterion set in advance
Medium
Active
Will the public programme plan state how many additional procedures are bought per type and hospital, the extra cost per procedure, and what counts as success on 1 January — together with a precise definition of the measure?
4
2026-11-14 — EU4Health joint procurement accession + IHR audit
Low
Active
Joining EU4Health 2025 joint procurements (vaccine, rapid test, PPE) and an independent IHR compliance audit along the 13 core capacities, with a public report (within 180 days).
5
2027-01-01 — Public waiting-list data by institution, updated monthly
Medium
Active
Whether the health insurance fund turns its existing register into a public, searchable dashboard showing actual waiting times and list sizes by institution and procedure, risk-adjusted and refreshed monthly.
6
2027-01-01 — Public reimbursement dossier for every new drug coverage decision
Medium
Active
Will the forthcoming decree amendment require that, within 30 days of each reimbursement decision, a summary of the health technology assessment, the NEAK rationale, the annual budget impact and the health gain in absolute terms be published, with industrial-policy considerations shown separately?
7
2027-01-01 — Review of on-call pay calculations in state hospitals
Medium
Active
Will the National Hospital Directorate complete within 90 days a hospital-by-hospital review of how on-call pay is calculated, publish aggregate results and settle any arrears — while the rules on calculating that pay are clarified in legislation?
8
2027-02-28 — Public evaluation of the waiting-list programme against pre-set criteria
Medium
Active
Will the January evaluation be made public and decide on continuation using four criteria fixed in advance: target met, genuine additionality, no deterioration of other lists, and no rise in complication rates?
9
2027-03-31 — NEAK analytical and IT capacity plan for outcome-based financing
Medium
Active
Will the national health insurer publish a plan with target analyst headcount and IT upgrade milestones, backed by a dedicated line in the 2027 budget — and will each pilot programme fix its expected outcome, baseline and evaluation date before it starts?
10
2027-05-04 — Compassionate-use medication request turnaround below 30 days
Medium
Active
Reduction in Batthyány-Strattmann László Foundation turnaround from current 60-90 days to below 30.
11
2027-05-29 — Evidence-based hospital capacity review (reorganisation, not closure)
Medium
Active
An independent professional body conducts an institution-by-institution capacity review (by care volume, quality indicators, geographic access) — the professional answer to the MOK’s “hospital closure” warning; KPI: a fall in the share of waiting lists over 30 days.
12
2027-06-25 — Nurse-retention package and structural fix for hospital staffing shortage
Medium
Active
Watch whether within 12 months a comprehensive nurse-retention package (competitive pay, clinical career path, minimum staffing) and real-time waiting-list publication launch. Fulfilment signal: falling nurse shortage (the ~64/10,000 ratio approaching the EU ~85 average) and shorter waiting lists.
13
2027-07-02 — Enshrining mandatory, comparable hospital infection reporting in law (12 months)
Low
Active
Whether institution-by-institution, uniform-methodology, risk-adjusted public reporting of hospital infection rates becomes a statutory obligation, rather than depending on ministerial goodwill.
14
2027-12-31 — Healthcare spending share of GDP at 7.1%
High
Active
2027 budget shows healthcare GDP share at 7.1% (or higher); trackable on the Fiscal Council dashboard.
15
2027-12-31 — Waiting lists above 6 months reduced in 3 areas
High
Active
Reduction in hip prosthesis, cataract surgery, cardiology specialist care waiting lists; 2027-01-01 baseline, 2027-12-31 measurement.
16
2027-12-31 — Unified patient-satisfaction data platform at 100% coverage
Low
Active
The proposed KPI targets the unified patient-satisfaction and quality platform covering 100% of public and private providers by 2027. A good sign is the private sector being included in the shared measurement.
17
2027-12-31 — Risk-adjusted hospital outcome tables for elective surgery
Low
Active
Following the IVF-centre model, will each hospital’s complication, reoperation and readmission rates for hip and knee replacement and cataract surgery be published with risk adjustment?
18
2029-07-12 — Closing the nurse-professional pay gap and a clinical career track
Low
Active
MIAK proposes raising the nurse minimum wage to 65% of the doctor minimum within three years, alongside a clinical (non-managerial) career path. A good sign is the pay gap actually closing and the career track launching.
19
2029-12-31 — Nurse-retention package — nurse minimum pay to 65% of the medical level
Low
Active
The nurse minimum wage rises in steps over three years to 65% of the medical level; KPI: nurse emigration halves by 2030 and the nurses-per-10,000-population ratio moves from ~64 towards the EU’s 85.
20
2030-12-31 — Healthcare spending share of GDP at 8%
Medium
Active
Rising GDP path from 6.8% to 8%: 2027: 7.1%, 2028: 7.4%, 2029: 7.7%, 2030: 8.0%.
21
within 90 days of the data portal launch — Risk-adjusted values shown first, as a requirement
Medium
Active
Whether institution-level infection data is displayed primarily in risk-adjusted form. On raw rates the hospital treating complex cases looks worse, which creates an incentive for patient selection.
22
together with the outcome-based elements — Open time-series publication and mandatory side-effect monitoring
Medium
Active
Whether the data appears in machine-readable time-series form and whether side effects are tracked: microbiological testing intensity and shifts in case mix. If the infection rate and testing intensity fall together, that is missing measurement, not improvement.
23
together with the pay scale — Non-pay retention measures with measurable targets
Medium
Active
Whether the new nursing pay scale is accompanied by non-pay retention measures — shift design, training, mentoring for new entrants — with measurable targets. MIAK’s E6 point proposes halving attrition by 2030.
24
by the start of 2027 budget planning — Outcome indicators attached to the extra health funding
Medium
Active
Whether outcome indicators are attached to the extra funding: average waiting time for elective procedures and the share of out-of-pocket health spending. The latter should converge on the EU average of 15 per cent.
25
before the next pharmaceutical price round — Public international reference-price basket and price-gap disclosure
Medium
Active
Whether the reference basket is published before the next price round, and whether it is disclosed in aggregate for what share of subsidised products the Hungarian net price exceeds the basket average. A 2.5-fold gap is currently a single known case.
26
Q1 2027 — Quarterly public workforce statement by institution
Medium
Active
Whether the first quarterly statement of vacant nursing posts by institution appears in Q1 2027. It directly shows whether the system can replace those who leave.
27
12-24 months — Rule-based, provider-neutral hospital resource-allocation formula
Low
Active
Whether a provider-independent, performance- and case-mix-based, pre-fixed resource-allocation formula for hospitals delivering the same public task (state and church) is published and applied, instead of case-by-case bargaining.
28
Autumn 2026 — Transparent private-public care delineation
Medium
Active
The minister promised a state-private settlement by autumn; MIAK asks for a data-based public framework with itemised separation of public and private funding flows. A good sign is a public, separated accounting launching in autumn.
29
Early autumn 2026 — Launch of public, institution-level hospital infection reporting
Medium
Active
Whether institution-level, comparable infection reporting starts in autumn 2026 (target: at least 80 percent of active inpatient hospitals in the first year), not merely a national average.
30
Within 3 years (KPI) — Cancer treatment started within 14 days of diagnosis
Low
Active
Whether the share of cases starting cancer treatment within 14 days reaches 90 percent, and whether the share waiting beyond 30 days halves within three years.
31
Ongoing — Purpose-bound, proportionate health data processing after the facial-recognition shutdown
Medium
Active
Whether the shutdown of hospital facial recognition extends into a principled framework: documenting purpose limitation and reviewing further biometric systems, making data security the starting point of design.
32
Legislative cycle — Legal guarantee of the chief medical officer’s professional autonomy
Medium
Active
Whether the law establishes that the chief medical officer’s epidemiological/public-health professional decisions cannot be overridden for political reasons, and that the position is tied to a fixed, predictable term and professional conditions — the institutional safeguard of the durability of the Oroszi Beatrix appointment.
33
Legislative cycle — Mandatory professional-body consultation for healthcare legislation
Low
Active
Whether the making/revoking of healthcare legislation (such as the heartbeat decree) is accompanied by a mandatory, public professional-body opinion; indicator: what share of legislation had such an opinion.
34
As an annex to the 2027 budget bill — A nursing-workforce plan with numerical targets
High
Active
Whether the HUF 500 billion sectoral increase is accompanied by a public workforce plan giving, year by year to 2032, retirements, graduates, actual entrants and the remaining gap — and naming what closes the gap where training cannot.
35
In the first half of 2027 — A written rule on movement between public and private care
Low
Active
Whether the ban on paid queue-jumping is joined by a conflict-of-interest rule barring a doctor from moving a patient up the public list they manage on the strength of a private consultation — together with an enforcement procedure.
36
From the start of the programme — Genuine-additionality rule and separate tracking of out-of-hours surgery
High
Active
Will the programme fund only operations above each hospital’s twelve-month average, without other elective lists growing there, and track complications, readmissions and reoperations for night-time surgery separately, with guaranteed rest periods for staff?
37
From the launch of the primary care stabilisation package — Monthly public map of GP practices and a numeric reduction target
Medium
Active
Will a monthly map show, for each GP practice area, the population served, when locum cover began and travel time to the surgery — and will the stabilisation package set a figure for cutting the roughly 1.4 million people living in locum-covered areas by the end of 2028?
12. Industrial safety, labour and environmental protection
In industrial safety, the polluter-pays principle now gets enforcement-side points: a public register of environmental fines, an annual enforcement report and a remediation budget line funded from fines collected. They pair with the earlier points on financial guarantees and orphan contamination: guarantees cover future damage, while fines only deter if they are actually collected and their use is visible. The missed register of legacy pollution sites shows that, for now, neither leg operates in public.
1
2026-10-31 — Industrial-safety sector audit launched on 4 battery factories
High
Active
Interior Ministry OKF + GFM-led sector-level industrial-safety audit (CATL Debrecen, Samsung SDI Göd, SK Innovation Iváncsa, SK On Komárom) launched.
2
2026-11-30 — National asbestos monitoring program launched
High
Active
National asbestos monitoring program launched within 6 months under Interior Ministry / NNGYK lead, with mandatory reporting for road-base above 100 m³.
3
2026-11-30 — Asbestos Victim Relief and Damage Liability Fund set up
High
Active
Under joint Interior (health) + PM responsibility, with dual financing (responsible party + central reserve HUF 1-1.5 bn/year); 30-year medical screening program.
4
2026-11-30 — Joint and several occupational-safety liability decree
Medium
Active
GFM/Justice Ministry-led decree on joint and several occupational-safety liability + mandatory KSH accident-data publication.
5
2026-12-01 — Keeping the cash refund channel and expanding capacity
Medium
Active
Whether the cash refund channel survives into the winter season and capacity grows. The proposed benchmark is above 95 per cent monthly availability of installed machines, published by district and county.
6
2026-12-31 — Battery factory dedicated emergency-rescue base designated
Medium
Active
Dedicated bases officially designated within 15-minute radius of 4 battery factories and financing model fixed; corporate contribution model.
7
2027-01-01 — The new environmental authority as holder and enforcer of remediation guarantees
Medium
Active
Whether the government decree now under consultation names the new national environmental authority as beneficiary of the guarantees, routes any drawn sums into site-specific remediation accounts, and obliges the authority to issue a reasoned decision within 30 days when a municipality requests action.
8
2027-01-18 — Pilot programme for joint policing and social work
Medium
Active
Whether a six-month pilot with permanent police–social worker pairs starts at inner-city hotspots, with a pre-set measurement plan and public evaluation.
9
2027-01-31 — Public, machine-readable register of environmental fines
Medium
Active
Will the government require final environmental, waste, air, noise and water protection fines to be published in a register showing the company, the site, the type of breach, the amount, payment status and any court review? The first release should cover decisions since 25 October and be updated every quarter after that.
10
2027-05-29 — Independent, accredited, real-time environmental monitoring at large investments
Medium
Active
An accredited measurement network independent of the manufacturer and the local authority, with real-time public data, around battery plants and similar large investments; KPI: a fall in the number of pollution episodes above the limit value.
11
2027-05-31 — Battery factory audit full report + occupational-safety amendment
High
Active
4-factory full sector report (fire safety, occupational safety, emergency protocol), summary public; Act XCIII of 1993 amendment submitted (joint and several liability, accident publicity, occupational-health oversight).
12
2027-05-31 — Building-materials conformity legislation package before parliament
Medium
Active
Mandatory independent certification for imports above 1000 t; joint and several liability chain; 5-year procurement ban for proven violations.
13
2027-06-30 — Mandatory, insolvency-proof environmental guarantees for hazardous-industry permits
Low
Active
Whether the Government tables a bill making permits for Seveso sites, hazardous-waste handlers, landfills and battery plants conditional on a guarantee sized by an independent clean-up estimate and ring-fenced from insolvency. Benchmark: full coverage for new permits from 2028 and for existing plants by end-2030.
14
2027-06-30 — Annual enforcement report and a risk-based environmental inspection plan
Low
Active
Will the environmental authority report for 2026 on the share of permitted sites inspected, the average time from detection to final decision, the share of fines actually collected and how many decisions courts overturned? A risk-based plan should guarantee that the highest-risk plants, including battery factories, get at least one unannounced inspection a year.
15
2027-11-30 — 100% sampling of asbestos-affected localities
High
Active
On-site sampling completed at the estimated 50-80 affected localities; risk-map dashboard on NNGYK website with monthly refresh.
16
2027-12-31 — IÖSKP full coverage, 8-minute ambulance response time
Medium
Active
Industrial-Zone Emergency Capacity Program operational; average response time in industrial zones below 8 minutes (from 12-18).
17
2028-12-31 — 75% remediation rate of affected public surfaces
Medium
Active
Asbestos remediation on public surfaces 75% complete; 46 speed-limited streets down to under 10.
18
by the close of renegotiation — Public performance benchmark and automatic sanctions in the concession
High
Active
Whether the renegotiated contract contains a public performance benchmark and automatic sanctions tied to measured data. Without a benchmark the HUF 90bn at stake stays purely a question of bargaining power.
19
from the next data year — Cutting the waste-data publication lag to twelve months
Medium
Active
Whether the gap between the close of the data year and official publication falls below twelve months, supplemented by quarterly flash reports. The 33.6 per cent recycling and 53.2 per cent landfill rates are 2024 figures — a two-year lag cannot control a contract.
20
May 2027 — Public report of the independent technical investigation into the Tiszaújváros MOL explosion
Medium
Active
The independent technical investigation into the fatal Olefin-1 explosion (22 May 2026) is closed and made fully public; the remediation rate of the safety deficiencies uncovered, within the deadline (12 months).
21
Ongoing — Data-driven early-warning system + public zone communication (animal epidemic)
Medium
Active
Whether a real-time, public risk map is set up (neighbouring countries’ epidemic data, wild-boar monitoring, veterinary reports) and up-to-date zone/action communication. Indicator: the share of farms supplying real-time data; the duration of non-EU export restrictions.
22
Within 90 days of the guarantee act taking effect — Public guarantee register and inventory of orphaned contaminated sites
Low
Active
Whether a machine-readable register of every covered facility’s clean-up estimate, guarantee and draw-downs is published, together with an annual report on clean-up costs the central budget paid without a guarantee, how much it recovered, and an inventory of orphaned contaminated sites.
23
In the 2027 central budget bill — Environmental restoration appropriation funded by collected fines
Medium
Active
Will the government’s 2027 budget bill create a ring-fenced appropriation fed by environmental and waste fines, used mainly to clean up the settlements where the breaches occurred? Success means an itemised annual account, and the authority ordering restoration with a deadline on top of the fine.
13. Clemency reform and transparency of presidential powers
The committee investigating the clemency case opened with the threat of coercive measures, and that is exactly what makes this cluster’s points interdependent: a hearing held without procedural guarantees makes its own findings contestable, and contestable findings never turn into a protocol that can be raised to statutory level. The annual anonymised report is the third step, and it holds the cluster’s only backward-looking indicator: how often the final decision departs from the professional recommendation, and how many of those departures carry a separate explanation. That is the number measuring the structural cause of the 2023 case, not its cast.
1
2026-11-15 — Independent ethics committee pre-screening for high-public-interest cases
Medium
Active
A 5-member independent ethics committee to vet clemency cases of child-protection/sexual/public-attention-heightening interest in advance; the opinion published in the file. The full reform in force by 31 December 2026.
2
2026-11-16 — Urging protocol with timestamps + min. 3-working-day waiting period
Medium
Active
Every Sándor Palace–Justice Ministry clemency communication is logged with a timestamp to the case file; min. 3-working-day waiting period between submission and countersignature.
3
2026-11-18 — Publication of the presidential office’s professional opinion
Medium
Active
The Sándor Palace rules of procedure require automatic, simultaneous-with-the-decision, anonymised publication of the cabinet opinion; target 100% publication rate within 30 days.
4
2027-05-19 — Annual parliamentary clemency report
Low
Active
The head of state presents the aggregate clemency statistics in an annual parliamentary report (petitions, positive/negative submissions, decisions against the ministerial position).
5
2027-05-20 — Extension of the lobbying register (A4) to clemency cases
Low
Active
The A4 register covers every clemency case (a public, lifelong-searchable record of meetings, calls, correspondence); target 100% documented events from 2027 Q4.
6
2027-08-31 — An annual presidential report on the use of powers
Low
Active
Whether the president’s office publishes an annual numerical summary of laws returned, prior reviews initiated, their outcomes, and appointment proposals on which further information was requested.
7
before the first hearing — Minimum procedural package for committee hearings
High
Active
Whether rules on legal representation, document access and reasoned closed sessions are set before the first hearing. Committee work that opens with the threat of coercive measures and no procedural guarantees makes its own findings contestable.
8
together with the committee report — Raising the clemency procedure protocol to statutory level
Medium
Active
Whether the individual clemency procedure — including a written-reasoning duty — is raised to statutory level. The starting target is reasoning attached to 100 per cent of decisions; below that the protocol exists but does not work.
9
Q1 2027 — Annual anonymised clemency report on 2026
Medium
Active
Whether the first annual anonymised clemency report appears in Q1 2027, including the share of decisions departing from the professional recommendation. That is the only indicator measuring the structural cause of the 2023 case.
14. Employment and a data-driven labour market
The new employment points target the gap between the minimum wage bargain and the labour market’s real condition: unemployment fell to 4.6 per cent in September, but behind a headline that also counts public works and people working abroad, the primary labour market employs 22,000 fewer people than a year ago. If the metric for the 2027 minimum wage target is not set in writing in the tripartite forum, and collective redundancies are not reported monthly, the wage deal will rest on a distorted headline number. The wage compression indicator and the sectoral pay matrix ask the same question from the top of the pay scale: whether raising the guaranteed minimum for skilled workers devalues graduate pay in relative terms.
1
2026-11-30 — Written agreement on how the 2027 minimum-wage target is measured
Medium
Active
Will the Permanent Consultation Forum of the Business Sector and the Government (VKF) settle in writing at its next round, before bargaining over figures, whether the 50 per cent target refers to the gross or the net ratio? Met if the net ratio is reported as a supplementary indicator next to the gross target and, should one-year delivery be unrealistic, a year-by-year path to 2029 is agreed that also covers the guaranteed minimum wage for skilled jobs.
2
2026-12-15 — Written minimum-wage agreement built on inflation plus productivity
Medium
Active
Whether the Permanent Consultation Forum of the Business Sector and the Government (VKF) reaches a written agreement that justifies any departure from the 2024 deal with the actual values of its three trigger indicators and starts from expected inflation and productivity. The Ministry of Finance should publish, for every option on the table, the gross rise, the net change and the change in employer cost.
3
2026-12-31 — First quarterly combined population and labour-supply balance
Medium
Active
Will a joint balance, designed by the statistics office under its professional independence, break down changes in labour supply into demographic, participation, migration and unemployment effects, showing raw, three-month and seasonally adjusted figures side by side?
4
2027-01-01 — Launch of a six-month activation threshold against long-term unemployment
Medium
Active
Will every registered jobseeker reaching six months without work receive a tailored retraining, wage-subsidy or mobility offer within 30 days, with full coverage by 30 June 2027?
5
2027-01-31 — Monthly figures for the primary labour market alongside the headline employment rate
Medium
Active
Will the monthly flash report of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) show, from January 2027, the primary labour market, public works and Hungarians working abroad on separate lines, with year-on-year change and sampling error? Met if the government also ties its 2027 employment target and messaging to primary labour market headcount; the KSH decides the methodology itself under its professional independence.
6
2027-01-31 — Monthly public summary of collective redundancy notifications
Medium
Active
Will government offices publish, from 1 January 2027, the monthly number of collective redundancy notifications and the headcount affected, anonymised and broken down by county and sector? Met if the first monthly summary appears by the end of January, so that the press and local authorities can see in advance where layoff risks are building up.
7
2027-03-31 — Dual-criteria impact report on family support
Low
Active
Will estimates be published for at least four family-support measures covering not only their effect on births but also on parents’ — especially mothers’ — labour-market participation, based on a methodology finalised by the end of 2026?
8
2027-03-31 — Pay compression indicator: graduate pay against the guaranteed minimum wage
Medium
Active
Whether the first sectoral report appears, based on Central Statistical Office (KSH) and public-service HR data, showing how many times the guaranteed minimum wage a graduate starter and a graduate with ten years of service earn. Where the ratio falls, the next budget bill must explain why and set a timetable for correction.
9
2027-03-31 — Headcount report on companies receiving individual government subsidies
Medium
Active
Will the tax authority (NAV) compare, each quarter, the actual headcount of subsidised companies reported in payroll returns with the figure promised in their subsidy contracts, and will the sponsoring ministry publish the results? Met if a quarterly drop of more than 10 per cent, or falling below the commitment, prompts the government office to contact the firm before the redundancy threshold is reached, offering information, retraining and a contract review.
10
2027-06-17 — Standing up a tripartite wage-coordination council
Medium
Active
Whether a government–employer–union wage-coordination mechanism is set up, and whether real-wage growth durably does not exceed productivity growth (HCSO data) — so that the wage surge does not feed back into inflation while the forint’s strength and disinflation leave room.
11
from H1 2027 — Tripartite pay-negotiation forum with a mandatory data base
Medium
Active
Whether the tripartite forum is set up and given its mandatory data base: vacancy rates, attrition, sectoral pay levels. The test of whether it works is how many strike-readiness surveys turn into actual walkouts.
12
12–36 months — Vocational reform: in-field placement and dual-partnership growth
Low
Active
Whether the structural change sets measurable outcome targets — does graduates in-field employment rate rise, do dual-training places/company partnerships expand in the 292,000-student system.
13
2027 budget cycle — Separating labour migration from asylum (points system)
Low
Active
Whether labour migration works through a skills-based points system tied to an occupation-shortage list (Canadian Express Entry model), legally separated from the asylum procedure.
14
2027 planning cycle — A legal framework for crisis-driven working-time reorganisation
Medium
Active
Whether a narrow framework for crisis working-time measures enters law: above what threshold, under what procedure and with how much notice remote work or a shifted working day may be ordered — instead of ad hoc requests.
15
2027–2028 (12–24 months) — Unfilled vacancies and wages in construction and manufacturing
Medium
Active
Whether, following the guest-worker stop, the number of unfilled vacancies in construction and manufacturing rises (unfilled shortage = bad sign), and whether the domestic median/entry wage rises in the affected trades (good sign).
16
Precondition for the decision — Real-time, district-level employment data platform
Medium
Active
Whether the public, district-level interface is built (employment rate, unfilled vacancies, sectoral shortages) — the data basis for guest-worker quotas and for mobilising the internal reserve. Target: every district, real-time coverage.
17
In progress — Targeted, regionally differentiated retraining program
Medium
Active
Whether the data-platform-based, locally-demand-aligned retraining starts (with automatic flagging for declining-demand profiles, e.g. laid-off battery-industry workers); indicator: the share of retrainees who enter employment.
18
Annual public impact report — Managing the tariff shock on the labour market + trade-realignment report
Medium
Active
Whether targeted retraining and regional mobility support are launched for laid-off battery/automotive workers, based on an annual public “trade-realignment impact report”; whether, longer term, productivity (TFP, output per hour) improves.
19
Q1 2027 — Sectoral working-time heat-exposure indicator
Low
Active
Whether the statistical office publishes a simple quarterly exposure indicator — by sector, how many hours worked fell on first-, second- or third-degree heat-alert days, split between outdoor and indoor work — by linking the labour force survey to the meteorological service’s heat-alert calendar. The indicator measures exposure, not damage.
15. The digital state and AI regulation
The outage of the magyarorszag.hu government portal exposed in operations the same gap that the acceptance testing of the electronic land registry exposed in development: there is no public inventory of state systems’ dependencies and vulnerabilities, and no mandatory patching deadline. The software inventory, a government decree on patching deadlines and protection of citizens’ procedural deadlines together decide whether the cost of an outage falls on the state or on the user. The spectrum and space infrastructure points extend the same exposure logic to critical services run by private companies.
1
2026-10-31 — Public inventory of the state’s own AI systems
Medium
Active
Whether a register is produced of every government AI system with its purpose, risk classification under the regulation, decision-support or decision-making role, bias testing and remedy route.
2
2026-11-10 — Independent public post-incident report on the Treasury attack
Medium
Active
Whether a body organisationally separate from the operator produces a public report: the timeline of the attack, the exploited vulnerability and the date it became known, detection and response times, the data sets exposed, and a log-based account of which data sets can be shown to be intact — and which cannot.
3
2026-11-22 — Mandatory feedback and representativeness correction on Közhang
Medium
Active
Whether all submissions and at least 80% of substantive replies are machine-readable, and whether a representative survey supplements the platform data — self-selected participation is not representative on its own.
4
2026-11-27 — Treasury 18-month action plan for renewing the pension payment system
Medium
Active
Will the new President of the Hungarian State Treasury publish, within 60 days of taking office, an action plan setting out the schedule, budget, independent acceptance condition and nine-month midpoint review for the pension payment system overhaul?
5
2026-12-07 — Cyber attack surface review after the diplomatic expulsions
Medium
Active
Within 90 days, is there a review of which state systems were confirmed or likely targets of foreign intrusion over the past five years, and where the fixes have been completed? Delivery means publishing an aggregated summary without naming institutions.
6
2026-12-10 — Mandatory multi-factor login in critical state systems
Medium
Active
Whether the government mandates, on a 120-day deadline, multi-factor authentication and a technically enforced password policy for every critical state system — above all payment and registry systems — extended to external suppliers with access, with sample audits and compliance rates published by organisation.
7
2026-12-31 — Algorithmic summarisation entered in the public algorithm register
Low
Active
If the platform uses automated summarisation, whether it is registered with a method description — otherwise there is no way to check on what basis the system elevates one view over another.
8
2026-12-31 — First publication of a public state IT project portfolio
Medium
Active
Will every state IT project above HUF 1 billion be listed in machine-readable form, with original and current budget and deadline, independently verified completion per module and a named project owner, plus a red-amber-green rating assigned by an independent unit — and updated quarterly thereafter?
9
2026-12-31 — Independent completion inventory and go/no-go decisions on inherited IT projects
Medium
Active
Will every pre-election IT project above HUF 1 billion get an independent completion figure using the method applied to E-ING, followed by a public, reasoned decision to continue, restructure or stop it based on remaining cost rather than money already spent?
10
2026-12-31 — Satellite-frequency position backed by a trade exposure analysis
Medium
Active
Whether the ministers responsible for digital affairs and external economic relations jointly commission an analysis of which Hungarian exporters a US retaliation would hit, followed by a Hungarian position on the merits of reserving satellite frequencies for European operators. A good sign would be published aggregate figures and a response shaped through EU channels rather than bilateral concessions.
11
2026-12-31 — Space infrastructure: public summary of designated critical entities
Medium
Active
Whether the authorities responsible for designating critical entities and for cybersecurity supervision publish an unclassified summary of the number of critical and essential entities by sector, with space and telecoms shown separately. A good sign would be figures on how many operators have a deliberate physical sabotage scenario in their risk assessment, and how the two supervisory regimes share information.
12
2026-12-31 — Status page, outage certificates and deadline protection on the central portal
Medium
Active
Will the operator of the magyarorszag.hu portal launch a public status page, issue a certified record of every outage and publish a short summary within 30 days of any outage longer than 12 hours? Full delivery also needs Parliament to amend the administrative procedure laws so that citizens’ deadlines falling within a certified outage are extended automatically.
13
2027-01-18 — Multi-vendor, open successor model for core state systems
Medium
Active
Whether a successor-model plan is produced for mandatory state systems: state-owned or open source code, documented data structures and modular multi-vendor operation against lock-in.
14
2027-01-31 — Software and dependency inventory of internet-facing state systems
Medium
Active
Will every central government body hand the National Cyber Security Institute (NKI) an inventory of its internet-facing systems, showing runtime versions, operators and whether each version still gets security updates? Success means full coverage plus a published aggregate, not a detailed list, of how many state websites run unsupported versions; local-government and school websites should follow by 30 June 2027.
15
2027-03-31 — Independent acceptance testing as a payment condition for state IT
Low
Active
Will a government decree require that the final milestone of state IT projects above HUF 1 billion, or funded by the EU, be signed off only after an independent acceptance test under realistic load, with part of the fee withheld and a public summary of the acceptance report?
16
2027-03-31 — Government decree on mandatory patching deadlines for critical flaws
Medium
Active
Will the government use its powers under the cybersecurity act to issue a decree requiring internet-facing state systems to be patched or disconnected within 72 hours for critical or actively exploited flaws, and within 14 days for high-severity ones? Key signals are a central on-call patching service for small bodies and quarterly compliance figures by type of organisation.
17
Immediate — Service-continuity guarantee during the state IT investigations
High
Active
Whether the government publicly commits that the elderly-care emergency call function and the school administration system’s core functions run without interruption throughout the investigations.
18
First six months — SME priority in the AI sandbox and a public admission procedure
Medium
Active
Whether the regulatory sandbox’s admission procedure is public and scored, with places reserved for SMEs — and whether a report appears on how many applicants reached market entry.
19
Q1 2027 — Payment-continuity fallback plan for pensions and family benefits
Low
Active
Whether a statutory fallback procedure is created: a segregated entitlement copy restorable offline, a pre-agreed bank data format, and a rule allowing automatic payment of the last assessed amount during a system outage with settlement afterwards — tested annually in a live drill, with recovery time published.
16. Foreign-policy norm defence and issue-based coalitions
The trilateral talks have slipped to after 10 November and the planned meeting between Péter Magyar and Volodymyr Zelensky did not take place, so the two central foreign policy points are delayed. The new points would fill the gap before the next round: a public statement rejecting any deal made without Ukraine, Hungary’s conditions for the mandate of a European chief negotiator, and a report to the National Assembly after each round. If these are not in place before talks resume, the government’s position will again only become visible after the fact, adjusted to a deal already made.
1
2026-10-01 — Public foreign policy doctrine with intelligence-risk criteria
High
Delayed
Delayed: the deadline for the doctrine document is tied to the tabling of the 2027 budget. The Prime Minister presented the budget’s headline figures on 19 October, but the bill had still not been tabled by 25 October and is expected at the end of the month. No foreign policy doctrine document has been published so far.
2
2026-10-12 — Constructive abstention rather than a veto on the 22nd Russia sanctions package
High
Delayed
Delayed: on 12 October the Foreign Affairs Council approved, with no Hungarian veto and no link to any other file, the largest expansion yet of the Russia sanctions list, covering more than 1,600 people and entities. The next sanctions package itself was not adopted on schedule, however; according to foreign press on 18 October the EU is still working on it.
3
2026-10-19 — Written joint statement on deadlines in the ten-point Hungary–Ukraine agreement
High
Delayed
Delayed: the planned meeting between Péter Magyar and Zelensky did not take place, so no joint statement was issued. On 20 October the Ukrainian ambassador said a Hungarian–Ukrainian summit is expected before the end of the year.
4
2026-10-20 — Public Hungarian negotiating position on security guarantees and sanctions relief
High
Delayed
Delayed: on 21 October Putin agreed in principle to resume the trilateral talks after 10 November, with the Kremlin proposing Abu Dhabi as the venue. By 25 October no public Hungarian negotiating position on guarantees or sanctions relief had been published.
5
2026-10-25 — Government statement of party neutrality during the Serbian elections
High
Active
Will the government declare, before Serbia’s parliamentary vote, that no Hungarian minister will appear with a Serbian candidate at campaign events and that any political inauguration of the Budapest–Belgrade railway will wait until the elections are over? Met if there is no joint campaign appearance until the presidential result is announced.
6
2026-10-31 — Public tracking table for Hungary’s 11-point package
High
Active
Will the Ministry of Foreign Affairs publish Hungary’s 11 points, marking each as met, partly met or open, with the agreed deadline? Met if the table is updated alongside the meetings of the education subgroup.
7
2026-11-03 — Separate travel advice for Kyiv and Transcarpathia, plus EU evacuation planning
High
Active
Will Hungary’s consular travel advice treat Kyiv and Transcarpathia separately, and will the foreign ministry join joint evacuation planning with other EU member states and the EU delegation in Kyiv, agreeing routes and assembly points in advance?
8
2026-11-08 — Pause on discretionary grants in Vojvodina until the national council election
Medium
Active
Will the government refrain from any new, non-competitive, discretionary grants to Vojvodina organisations until the 8 November election of the Hungarian National Council, while honouring payments already committed? Otherwise the competing Hungarian organisations in Vojvodina do not get a level playing field.
9
2026-11-09 — Hungary’s conditions for a European negotiator’s mandate
High
Active
Will the government, on a proposal from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, state in writing that it backs a jointly mandated European negotiator, provided the European Council issues the mandate with written guidelines, the negotiator represents all 27 member states, every capital gets the same briefing within 48 hours of each round, and nothing about Ukraine is agreed without Ukraine? Met if the decision is taken at the 26–27 November summit at the latest and Hungary opens no parallel national channel.
10
2026-11-12 — Government statement decoupling the NIS deal from sanctions votes
High
Active
Will the government state what commitments it has made in connection with Mol’s deal over the Serbian oil company NIS, and how it will respond if the buyer turns out to be a US firm? Met if the statement makes clear that Hungary’s votes on EU sanctions will not depend on the outcome of the deal.
11
2026-11-13 — Public Hungarian statement rejecting a deal made without Ukraine
High
Active
Whether, before the EU summit planned for 13 November, the Government states in writing on its website that a settlement concluded without Ukraine and the EU will not bind Hungary in EU votes on sanctions and support for Ukraine. Fulfilment also requires a written Ministry of Foreign Affairs scenario for what Hungary does if the great-power summit goes ahead anyway.
12
2026-11-14 — Issue-based coalition for unobstructed internal borders
Medium
Active
Whether a joint technical document is agreed with the member states whose trade and labour markets depend on open internal borders — Austria, Slovenia, Slovakia, Czechia, Romania and the Benelux countries — on the proportionality and time requirements for internal border-control notifications.
13
2026-11-15 — School-by-school implementation report on Hungarian-language education in Transcarpathia
High
Active
Will the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Education and Children publish the report’s methodology by 15 November and the baseline data by 15 December? Met if, for each school, it shows minority status, the share of pupils taught in Hungarian, the head’s command of the language and the number of pupils sitting their final exams in Hungarian.
14
2026-11-30 — Voluntary duty-of-care standard for Hungarian companies in Ukraine
Medium
Active
Will the foreign ministry, through its economic diplomacy channels, draw up a voluntary standard for Hungarian firms in Ukraine covering minimum operations during air-raid alerts, a consular notification chain for posted staff and a designated crisis contact?
15
2026-11-30 — Inaugural meeting and public rules of procedure for the education subgroup
Medium
Active
Will the education subgroup of the Hungarian–Ukrainian joint commission hold its inaugural meeting and adopt public rules of procedure? Met if the rules provide for quarterly meetings, a public summary within 15 days, permanent participation by Transcarpathian Hungarian organisations, a complaints channel and an escalation ladder.
16
2026-11-30 — No Hungarian veto on an EU Black Sea naval mission
Medium
Active
Whether the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, together with the Ministry of Defence, sets out in writing before the first substantive Council debate that Hungary will not block an EU Black Sea mission and, if it does not wish to take part, will use constructive abstention. A good sign would be a Hungarian request for a comparative analysis of escort, coastal air policing and combined mandates before the decision.
17
2026-12-14 — Expert talks in the Danube Commission on Lower Danube shipping data
Medium
Active
Will the Ministry of Transport and Investment, together with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, launch expert talks in the Budapest-based Danube Commission on a monthly dataset covering waiting times, restrictions and security incidents around the Sulina channel? A further sign of success would be the first monthly release by the first quarter of 2027.
18
2026-12-15 — Cross-government scenario for a lasting US–EU split on Russia
Medium
Active
Will the government commission a cross-ministry scenario for a lasting divergence between US and EU policy on Russia, covering energy, defence procurement and intelligence cooperation? Met if a public summary is released and the government briefs the National Assembly’s national security and defence committees.
19
2026-12-31 — Compensation for joining: a place in the alternative-route programmes
Medium
Active
If Hungary joins the common EU response, whether it ties that to concrete, quantified compensation — and states the ask at the start of negotiations rather than the end. Measure: whether a Hungarian party appears on the Franco-Saudi logistics working group and the Three Seas energy project list.
20
2026-12-31 — Separating delisting requests from list renewal
Medium
Active
Whether Hungary proposes a procedural agreement in the Council sanctions working party handling delisting requests separately, filed at least 60 days before renewal with written reasons — so a single name can no longer hold the whole list hostage.
21
2026-12-31 — Public project list for the Hungary Helps programme
Medium
Active
Will the programme’s projects be published by beneficiary, country, amount, purpose and proof of delivery, in step with the appointment of its new head? Once the review is closed, an independent evaluation should show which projects achieved their aims.
22
2026-12-31 — Separate bilateral timetable for the MOL–Naftogaz storage dispute
Medium
Active
Will a separate bilateral agreement or timetable emerge on the MOL–Naftogaz storage dispute, kept apart from decisions on Ukraine’s accession clusters? Met if the government handles the energy dispute within EU energy-market rules and does not tie it to its accession votes.
23
2026-12-31 — Hungarian yardstick set in advance for Ukraine’s Clusters IV and V
Medium
Active
Will the government publish, before talks on the two remaining clusters, what its further consent depends on, without adding conditions beyond the June agreement? Met if the yardstick rests on delivery of the 11-point timetable and the share of schools granted minority status, and mirrors the same test on Hungary’s own minority-language schools.
24
2027-03-31 — An annual public report on the external constraints
Low
Active
Whether the foreign ministry produces an annual public report of at most thirty pages on what Hungary’s room for manoeuvre depends on: partner-economy political risk with quantified trade transmission, the energy sourcing mix, and exposure in EU decision-making.
25
2027-06-30 — Geographic indivisibility of judicial independence as stated doctrine
Medium
Active
Whether Hungarian foreign-policy doctrine states in fixed form that the standard for defending judicial independence cannot be split by geography — and whether the next alliance credibility audit itemises ICC-related expectations.
26
before the next COELA meeting — Public standard for reasoning a veto
High
Active
Whether Hungarian rejections in unanimity files come with published written reasoning. The baseline is essentially zero; MIAK proposes 100 per cent as the target for 2027.
27
at the next foreign affairs council — A Hungarian initiative for an EU minimum attribution standard
High
Active
Whether Hungary tables an EU minimum standard for the evidentiary threshold at which a hybrid incident can be attributed to a state. This is the agenda item where the Hungarian position can offer a rule instead of a veto.
28
before the next country report — Publication of minority-protection agreement milestones
Medium
Active
Whether the June bilateral agreement’s commitments are published broken into milestones, and how many are met on time. That is the indicator a lifting of the veto could point to.
29
Before the item reaches the Council agenda — Hungarian position on the proportionality test for internal border controls
High
Active
Whether the government publishes a one-page written position on two points: that Schengen internal border control is an exceptional, proportionate and time-limited instrument tied to a documented public-order or internal-security threat; and that “suspension of Schengen membership” is not an existing legal instrument.
30
Immediate diplomatic practice — A norm-defending Hungarian position on free transit through straits
High
Active
Whether Hungary maintains a pre-formulated, actor-independent position on transit passage — with the same wording in EU fora and in bilateral contacts — backed by its own, continuously updated risk assessment of Hungarian supply routes.
31
Autumn 2026 — Initiating a regional incident-sharing channel
Medium
Active
Whether Hungary initiates technical-level incident sharing among the Visegrád Four, Romania and Bulgaria: a fixed reporting form, a set notification deadline, a contact list and a joint analysis twice a year — with no new agency, between existing national bodies.
32
First half of 2027 — Low-water minimum-flow commitment within the ICPDR
Low
Active
Whether the government initiates negotiation of a low-water cooperation protocol in the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube: upstream reservoir operating commitments below a threshold level, their duration, the notification regime, and an expert conciliation procedure — not a judicial route — for non-compliance.
33
Q1 2027 — Public, quantified summary of Hungarian external-border performance
Low
Active
Whether a public summary is produced of Hungary’s latest Schengen evaluation results, the shortcomings identified and the measures taken, together with border-policing staffing and equipment capacity data — a norm-defending position can only be pressed on the back of verifiable own performance.
34
Before the next relevant EU Council meeting — Pre-published criteria for joining the sanctions response
High
Active
Whether the government publishes its four-part criteria before the substantive EU decision: quantified energy exposure, the legal position on free passage through straits, the scope of EU solidarity obligations, and the compensation sought.
35
By the end of the Council ETS negotiations — A public climate coalition map aimed at the 35 per cent population threshold
Medium
Active
Is the climate chapter of the Coalition Map published, naming the like-minded member states issue by issue — and do at least six member states representing over 35 per cent of the EU population back the Hungarian position by the Council vote?
36
From the first round of Czech–Hungarian talks — V4 fuel-price data sharing instead of a price-cap race
Medium
Active
Whether V4 information exchange turns into real data sharing — joint publication of weekly retail averages, border filling-station volumes and monthly excise receipts — or the region slides into cascading price caps.
37
Continuous, reviewed every six months — An issue-based coalition reserve for German political uncertainty
Medium
Active
Whether the government names at least two alternative coalition partners for every key EU file — cohesion, agriculture, energy market rules, enlargement — with the offered quid pro quo recorded and reviewed twice a year.
38
In the 2027 budget bill — Open competitive grants for Hungarian community funding in Vojvodina
Medium
Active
Will the government switch to open calls for funding Hungarian organisations and media in Vojvodina, with recipient-level public data and media contracts that guarantee editorial independence? Target: at least 90 percent of support allocated competitively by the end of 2027.
39
Within 15 days of the Commission’s proposal for the next economic sanctions package — Sanctions exposure statement instead of a veto threat
Medium
Active
Will the government publish which Hungarian energy and industrial deals the next economic sanctions package would hit, the expected cost, and what temporary exemption it seeks on what evidence? Met if any exemption request is tabled openly at the start of talks rather than extracted by a last-minute veto.
40
At least two weeks before the Berehove meeting — Interim review of the ten-point Hungary–Ukraine agreement
Medium
Active
Ahead of the Berehove meeting, will the government publish a review showing which points have been delivered, which are slipping and what the next deadline is? The next stage, on language use and dealings with public authorities, should be prepared at working level so that the meeting itself only has to confirm it.
41
By the next Foreign Affairs Council — Hungary joining the Black Sea moratorium on attacks against civilian ships
High
Active
Will Hungary publicly join the Bulgarian, Romanian and Turkish initiative, with the ban covering both warring parties, traffic bound for Danube ports and the Sulina channel entrance? If this did not happen at the summit, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs should table a proposal at the next Foreign Affairs Council.
42
Within a week of each negotiating round (first expected mid-November 2026) — Round-by-round briefings to the National Assembly
High
Active
Will the Ministry of Foreign Affairs brief Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee and European Affairs Committee within a week of each round of peace talks on what Hungary learned from EU and US briefings, the position it took and any change in its room for manoeuvre? Met if an unclassified public summary follows each briefing, starting with the round expected in mid-November.
Closed measurement points (last 30 days)
1
2026-10-31 — Disability benefits addressed explicitly in the minimum-pension rise
Medium
Done
Done: the seven draft regulations the Ministry of Finance put out for public consultation on 9 October state that disability benefits will rise by 10 per cent in January 2027, and that older disability benefit recipients will receive the same tiered increase as low-income pensioners. There is still no rule on catching up recipients under 65 or on indexing the linked thresholds.
2
2026-10-23 — Post-summit report on a needs-based request for extra cohesion funding
High
Missed
Missed: in the week after the summit the Government did not publish the size of Hungary’s national envelope, the extra cohesion funding requested or its regional justification. On 20 October the Prime Minister said only that there can be no joint EU budget until the migration fine is settled.
3
2026-10-23 — Payment review before the second instalment of the diesel subsidy
High
Missed
Missed: by the 23 October deadline the tax authority and the Hungarian State Treasury had not published channel-by-channel payment data for the first instalment of the diesel subsidy, an explanation of mistaken transfers or the number of complaints, and nothing was announced on data checks before the 30 October instalment.
4
2026-10-23 — Supply-security stress test and diversified diesel sourcing
Medium
Missed
Missed: by the 23 October deadline no public stress test of the diesel supply chain had been carried out, even though Ukrainian drones may have hit a key Druzhba pipeline station on 20 October and the Croatian Adria pipeline has not yet been tested for the volumes Hungary would need.
5
2026-10-23 — Publication of the permitting file on the Paks bed sill
High
Missed
Missed: by the 23 October deadline the ministry responsible for the environment had not published the environmental permit application for the Paks riverbed sill, the status of the procedure or a summary of Hungary’s reply to the European Commission.
6
2026-10-22 — Statutory reinforcement of audit-office independence and a parliamentary review route
High
Missed
Missed: by the 22 October deadline the week’s press reported no bill strengthening the independence of the State Audit Office, and no decision was made to channel any review of the institution through Parliament.
7
2026-10-22 — Public Horizon re-association timetable and checklist of conditions
High
Missed
Missed: by the 22 October deadline no itemised Horizon re-entry checklist, submission date or plan for recovering the domestic bridge funding had been published, and the week’s press reported nothing on preparing the request.
8
2026-10-22 — National supply-chain shock analysis and targeted SME protection
Medium
Missed
Missed: by the 22 October deadline no public sector-level exposure map of Hungarian suppliers dependent on US demand had been produced, and no targeted SME support tied to measurable commitments was announced.
9
2026-10-22 — Itemised final report on the Danube crisis response (60 days)
High
Missed
Missed: by the 22 October deadline no itemised final report on the Danube crisis response had appeared, covering the cost of the riverbed sill and barge sinking, lost output and additional imports. Meanwhile on 21 October a turbine generator at Paks Unit 1 tripped, leaving the plant running at roughly half its rated capacity.
10
2026-10-22 — Risk register for legacy contamination points exposed by falling water (60 days)
High
Missed
Missed: by the 22 October deadline no public risk register of legacy pollution sites exposed by falling water levels had been compiled. On 20 October the Constitutional Court struck down the government decree provision that had allowed remediation to be postponed, but that does not replace the register.
11
2026-10-21 — Hungarian observers seconded to the OSCE/ODIHR mission in Serbia
High
Missed
Missed: by the 21 October deadline the Government had not disclosed how many short-term observers the Foreign Ministry was sending to the OSCE/ODIHR mission for Serbia’s 25 October election.
12
2026-10-20 — Implementation evidence package ahead of the EUR 4.2 billion release
High
Missed
Missed: the Council closed the conditionality procedure and released the EUR 4.2 billion on 13 October, but no government evidence package with implementation data appeared in the press before the decision.
13
2026-10-19 — A public takeover plan and service indicators for the state road company
High
Missed
Missed: by the 19 October deadline the ministry had not published a takeover plan for the state road operator Magyar Közút with an asset and contract inventory, the grading of the staff taken back and service indicators for winter maintenance. The week’s press only covered the planned 2027 review of concession spending.
14
2026-10-19 — Handling the US tariff authorisation through EU channels, with a public contact log
High
Missed
Missed: by the 19 October deadline there was no sign that the Government had asked the European Commission in writing to assess Hungary’s exposure to the 100 percent US tariff, and no public contact log was started.
15
2026-10-18 — Diversification timetable published
Medium
Missed
Missed: by 18 October no concrete diversification timetable covering Croatian LNG, the Adria pipeline and reducing reliance on Urals crude had appeared. On 17 October the Prime Minister said it would be logical to extend the US exemption for Russian crude that expires in November.
16
2026-10-18 — Searchable, machine-readable database from the 482-page MTI file (60 days)
High
Missed
Missed: by 18 October the week’s press carried no information on the 482-page set of MTI news agency documents being put into a searchable, machine-readable database.
17
2026-10-18 — Public summary of the crisis protocol for missions in Kyiv and Transcarpathia
High
Missed
Missed: by 18 October the week’s press carried no information on a public summary of the crisis protocol for the embassy in Kyiv and the consular posts in Transcarpathia, even though another massive attack hit Ukraine’s energy system on the night of 16 October.
18
2026-10-16 — Public reform roadmap for every rule-of-law report recommendation
Medium
Missed
Missed: by 16 October no reform roadmap assigning a responsible ministry, deadline and indicator to each recommendation of the rule of law report had appeared. A civil society analysis published on 12 October urged a public status table per recommendation in a dedicated Hungary case study.
19
2026-10-15 — Itemised yes–no position on all five proposed own resources
High
Missed
Missed: no public Hungarian position on the five proposed new EU own resources appeared before the 15–16 October European Council. The Irish presidency’s negotiating box of 10 October kept the new own resources, and the summit reached no agreement on the budget framework.
20
2026-10-15 — A performance pledge in the Friends of Cohesion declaration
High
Missed
Missed: no Friends of Cohesion declaration with measurable performance commitments appeared before the October European Council, and according to the foreign press the 17-member group did not even react publicly to the negotiating box. Hungary did not publish baseline values either.
21
2026-10-15 — Uniform protocol for state-run reviews
Medium
Missed
Missed: by 15 October no government decree had been issued on a uniform procedure for state audits. On 16–17 October two ministries filed criminal complaints after audits (the Kisfaludy tourism programme and Családbarát Magyarország), but there was no word on publishing the full final reports.
22
2026-10-15 — Publishing an itemised inventory of the SZTFH regulator’s powers
High
Missed
Missed: by 15 October the justice minister’s report with an itemised inventory of the powers of the Supervisory Authority for Regulated Activities (SZTFH) had not been published. At the same time the press reported the resignation of the authority’s president and its planned abolition on 1 January 2027.
23
2026-10-15 — Itemised, auditable publication of the HUF 700bn savings
Medium
Missed
Missed: by 15 October no itemised list had appeared showing which budget lines and measures make up the announced saving of some HUF 700 billion. The Fiscal Council gave its opinion on this year’s budget amendment on 14 October, but there was no word on an itemised breakdown of the saving.
24
2026-10-15 — Publication of the draft climate law with at least 28 days for comment
High
Missed
Missed: by 15 October the week’s press carried no information on the full draft climate law being posted on the government website for consultation of at least 28 days.
25
2026-10-15 — A public Hungarian position on unanimity reform, broken down by policy area
High
Missed
Missed: no written Hungarian position on reforming unanimity, broken down by policy area, appeared before the October European Council. The Commission’s enlargement package of 6 October would move the opening of chapters to qualified majority, while on 7 October the enlargement commissioner said unanimity could stay.
26
2026-10-13 — Publication of the Paks government-resolution report with a cost chapter
High
Missed
Missed: by 13 October the report required by government resolution on the Paks shutdown, with a chapter on costs, had not been published. On 14 October the lowest water level ever was measured at Paks; the units did not have to be shut down thanks to the riverbed sill built in the summer.
27
2026-10-13 — Public Hungarian position ahead of the 15 October EU oil coordination meeting
High
Missed
Missed: no public Hungarian position appeared before the EU oil coordination meeting of 15 October. On 7 October member states decided to release further crude and diesel stocks only after an assessment by the International Energy Agency.
28
2026-10-12 — Impact assessment of the counter-terrorism merger and the strike-right restoration
Medium
Missed
Missed: by the 12 October deadline the week’s press carried no information on the government publishing an impact assessment of merging the Counter Terrorism Centre (TEK) into the police, covering the duplications removed, operational capability and internal oversight.
29
2026-10-12 — Quarterly food-shock impact sheet
Medium
Missed
Missed: by 12 October the week’s press carried no information on a quarterly food shock impact sheet, even though several fresh data releases on drought-related crop losses and grain prices appeared.
30
2026-10-12 — Energy diversification roadmap with public milestones
Medium
Missed
Missed: by 12 October no roadmap with annual targets for reducing dependence on Russian oil and gas had appeared. On 6 October an agreement was reached in Zagreb on a joint cross-border gas field, expanding the gas interconnector and supporting talks between Mol and Janaf, but without milestones.
31
2026-10-11 — Risk-allocation audit of concession and PPP contracts
Medium
Missed
Missed: by 11 October the government had not ordered an independent risk-sharing audit of every concession and PPP contract above HUF 10 billion. There were only one-off steps: in early October an 11-year contract was signed for one section of the M6 motorway, and the main motorway concession is being terminated.
32
2026-10-11 — Joint radiation-safety briefing on the Zaporizhzhia risk
High
Missed
Missed: by 11 October the week’s press carried no information on a joint statement by the Hungarian Atomic Energy Authority and the disaster management agency on the Zaporizhzhia risk.
33
2026-10-10 — Mandatory prior impact-assessment package for constitutional changes
Medium
Missed
Missed: by the 10 October deadline no rule had been adopted requiring a mandatory, public prior impact assessment for amendments to the Fundamental Law or to cardinal laws. On 8–9 October the Prime Minister’s Office said only that preparation of a new constitution would start this autumn, with broad participation and a confirmatory referendum. No impact assessment requirement was mentioned.
34
2026-10-10 — Publication of the rail project list and the calculation behind it
Medium
Missed
Missed: by 10 October the transport ministry had not published the list of projects in the rail programme or the calculation behind their ranking. On 15 October the press reported only a review of the HUF 11,000 billion project portfolio and a higher road renovation budget for 2027.
35
2026-10-10 — Uniform government press-event protocol
Medium
Missed
Missed: by 10 October the government had not adopted a uniform protocol for press events. On 5 October Parliament’s press office, citing a rule from June, refused entry to a Partizán film crew. That was a decision of Parliament’s administration; the Prime Minister only voiced his disagreement.
36
2026-10-08 — Bill for an independent anti-corruption agency
Medium
Missed
Missed: by the 8 October deadline no bill establishing a corruption investigation office independent of the government had been put before Parliament. Among the accountability institutions, the week saw only the leadership of the asset recovery office being completed.
37
2026-10-08 — Public summary of preparations for Russian retaliation
High
Missed
Missed: by 8 October no public summary of preparations for possible Russian retaliation had appeared. On 15 October the foreign press reported that the government had not confirmed whether the Hungarian–Russian intergovernmental commission would meet next year.
38
2026-10-07 — A haulage and export exposure assessment for internal border checks
Medium
Missed
Missed: by the 7 October deadline the week’s press carried no route-by-route estimate of how much transit times and haulage costs would rise if internal border checks were reinstated.
39
2026-10-07 — Closing procurement loopholes and running AI anomaly detection
Medium
Missed
Missed: by 7 October no targeted amendment to the public procurement law had been tabled to close the loopholes used by repeat winners. On 7 October the transport minister only announced that exclusions could follow over serious irregularities and that reference requirements would be eased.
40
2026-10-06 — Full publication of the concession contract and its annexes
High
Missed
Missed: by 6 October the 35-year motorway concession contract and its annexes had not been made public. On 7 October the Prime Minister announced that the concession company accepts termination of the contract, but the cost of the exit is not known.
41
2026-10-06 — Publishing the traffic calculation and saving derivation for the Mohács bridge
High
Missed
Missed: by 6 October the week’s press carried no information on publication of the traffic calculation for the Mohács bridge or of how the HUF 76 billion saving was derived.
42
2026-10-05 — Machine-readable monthly split of one-off and structural deficit items
High
Missed
Missed: the September flash report of 5 October also gave the nine-month deficit excluding EU pre-financing, but no separate, machine-readable series of one-off, timing and structural items appeared. Critics questioned the monthly improvement precisely by pointing to one-off effects.
43
2026-10-05 — A Danube allocation and minimum-flow protocol — negotiating mandate
High
Missed
Missed: by 5 October no public negotiating mandate on sharing Danube water with upstream countries had been adopted. On 7 October record low water levels were measured at almost every Hungarian gauging station, and the European Commission is looking into the riverbed sill at Paks following an Austrian complaint.
44
2026-10-03 — Monthly itemised statement on the asylum penalty payment
High
Missed
Missed: by the 3 October deadline the week’s press carried no information on a monthly itemised statement of the asylum-related penalty payments or of the portion recovered by offsetting.
45
2026-10-03 — Publishing the current beneficiary profile before phase-out
Medium
Missed
Missed: by the 3 October deadline the week’s press carried no information on a breakdown of current users of the state guarantee by company size, sector, region and coverage ratio.
46
2026-10-02 — Retroactive review of NER-tourism (Kisfaludy Program) subsidies (90 days)
Medium
Missed
Missed: by the 2 October deadline the week’s press carried no information on a full public review of the Kisfaludy programme’s non-competitive one-off tourism grants, or on any clawback.
47
2026-10-02 — A pre-published disposal procedure for the recovered assets
High
Missed
Missed: by the 2 October deadline the week’s press carried no information on pre-announced sales rules for the foundation assets reverting to the state.
48
2026-10-02 — Itemised public register of every non-public government decision
High
Done
Done: on 29 September the government published a year-by-year list of the titles of all 3,598 non-public government resolutions (numbered in the 2000 series) adopted between 2010 and 2026. The full texts, an estimated 10,000 pages, remain non-public.
49
2026-10-01 — A single public drawdown accounting, broken down by budget line
High
Missed
Missed: by 1 October no public breakdown of EU fund drawdowns by operational programme and legal title had appeared, so the dispute over HUF 3,650 billion versus EUR 16.4 billion remains unresolved.
50
2026-10-01 — Recovered foundation assets and funding channels on the spending dashboard
Medium
Missed
Missed: by 1 October the recovered foundation assets and their funding channels had not been published in machine-readable form on a public-spending dashboard. In early October the Prime Minister’s Office published a map-based database only for National Cultural Fund grants.
51
2026-10-01 — Product-level, regular and public fuel-stock dashboard
Medium
Missed
Missed: by the 1 October deadline the week’s press carried no information on a regularly updated fuel stock dashboard broken down by product type.
52
2026-10-01 — Public risk register for Paks II, updated annually
Medium
Missed
Missed: by the 1 October deadline the week’s press carried no information on a public version of the Paks II risk register.
53
2026-10-01 — Monthly exposure schedule for Hungary’s energy-import routes
High
Missed
Missed: by the 1 October deadline the week’s press carried no information on a monthly, machine-readable exposure register covering energy import routes.
54
2026-10-01 — Weekly southern supply report: border fuel stations and southern gas entry
High
Missed
Missed: by the 1 October deadline the week’s press carried no information on a weekly southern supply report covering disruptions at border filling stations and flows at the Kiskundorozsma entry point.
55
2026-10-01 — Pre-published water-use priority order with graduated levels
Medium
Missed
Missed: by 1 October no uniform national order of priority for water use had been adopted, even though that day the Danube in Budapest fell to -1 cm, its lowest level since records began in 1823. Water management was on the agenda of the 2–4 October off-site cabinet meeting, but there was no word on the order of restrictions.
56
2026-10-01 — Ex post release of withheld healthcare review reports (30-90 days)
Medium
Missed
Missed: by 1 October the withheld health system audit reports had not been released. On 2 October officials said only that an amended decree would make the background to drug reimbursement decisions public.
57
2026-10-01 — Procedure-level public waiting-list data from the programme’s launch
High
Missed
Missed: by 1 October no machine-readable waiting list data broken down by institution and procedure had been published. According to the press summary of 4 October, the waiting list reduction plan is still a proposal posted on social media, with no draft decree.
58
2026-10-01 — Assigning AI Act market-surveillance powers to a dedicated unit
High
Missed
Missed: by 1 October no decision had been taken to assign market surveillance under the AI Act to a dedicated unit with its own budget, and no competence inventory had appeared. The science and technology minister’s 29 September interview set out only intentions.
59
2026-09-30 — Public consultation paper before any change to the inflation target
High
Missed
Missed: on 22 September, the same day as the September Inflation Report, the MNB’s Monetary Council decided to lower the inflation target from 3 to 2.5 percent. The week’s press reported no prior public consultation paper or stand-alone impact assessment, so consultation before the change can no longer take place.
60
2026-09-30 — Public legislative turnaround table
Medium
Missed
Missed: by the 30 September deadline the week’s press carried no information on the Office of the National Assembly publishing a machine-readable table of adopted laws with their submission and final-vote dates and whether an impact assessment and public consultation took place.
61
2026-09-30 — Migration Pact implementing legislation with a regulation–directive split (90 days)
Medium
Missed
Missed: by the 30 September deadline the week’s press carried no information on Parliament adopting the legislative package implementing the EU migration pact, nor on any separation of directly applicable regulations from directives requiring transposition.
62
2026-09-30 — Public competence profile for heads of mission and reasoned appointments
Medium
Missed
Missed: by 30 September the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had not published a competence profile for each category of posting. On 2 October the press reported that several key postings, including Moscow, were left without an ambassador.
63
2026-09-30 — Monthly delivery schedule for the recovery fund’s remaining milestones
High
Missed
Missed: Hungary submitted its final Recovery and Resilience Facility payment request by the 30 September deadline, with roughly EUR 9.1 billion at stake according to the press, and the European Commission is due to decide by year-end. No public, regularly updated schedule of the outstanding commitments was published, however.
64
2026-09-30 — Numeric, automatic safeguard clause in the September negotiating position
High
Missed
Missed: on 29 September the Court of Justice of the EU rejected Poland’s request to suspend the provisional application of the Mercosur agreement. The week’s press carried no information on a Hungarian negotiating position seeking a quantified, automatic safeguard clause.
65
2026-09-30 — Putting regional transit-capacity funding on the agenda
Medium
Missed
Missed: by the 30 September deadline the week’s press carried no information on the financing of regional port and rail transit capacity being put on the agenda.
66
2026-09-30 — Forensic IT and document audit second round
Medium
Missed
Missed: by the 30 September deadline the week’s press carried no information on a second round of forensic IT and document audits covering server access, deletion logs and physical archives.
67
2026-09-30 — Full reasoning published with every withdrawal decision
Medium
Missed
Missed: by the 30 September deadline the week’s press carried no information on the full reasoning behind subsidy revocation decisions being published together with the decisions.
68
2026-09-30 — Single, pre-published accounting protocol for foundation wind-downs
High
Missed
Missed: by 30 September no uniform settlement protocol had been issued for winding up the public-interest asset management foundations. The week’s press carried no information on one, and the settlement of accounts for the dissolved foundations runs until 31 October.
69
2026-09-30 — Independent Fiscal Council operational
High
Missed
Missed: by the 30 September deadline the week’s press carried no information on an independent fiscal council starting work or issuing a first quarterly report.
70
2026-09-30 — Decision on the expiring interest subsidy, with a published impact assessment
High
Missed
Missed: by 30 September neither a regulation on ending the interest rate cap nor a public impact assessment had appeared. According to press reports on 1 October, the measure stayed in force simply because no government decision was taken, so the postponement came without a decision or justification.
71
2026-09-30 — Strategic crude reserve: 75 → 90 days
High
Missed
Missed: by the 30 September deadline the week’s press carried no information on raising Hungary’s strategic oil stocks to 90 days. On 2 October the G7 agreed on a coordinated four-month release of stocks.
72
2026-09-30 — Baseline waiting-list survey before the programme starts
High
Missed
Missed: by 30 September no baseline survey of waiting lists with a public methodology had appeared. Press coverage focused on details of the programme, such as afternoon and weekend surgery and incentives, not on a baseline.
73
2026-09-29 — Independent data-quality council alongside the KSH (90 days)
Medium
Missed
Missed: by 29 September no independent data quality council had been set up alongside the Central Statistical Office. Meanwhile, according to press reports summarised on 4 October, the office faced data quality criticism over an earlier revision of its poverty figures.
74
2026-09-29 — Tapering bridge support for hauliers tied to fleet renewal
High
Missed
Missed: after the 29 September sector meeting the press reported only that hauliers had received promises and that a protest remained on the table. There was no word of a tapering bridge subsidy tied to fleet renewal, while payment of the first instalment of the general diesel subsidy began on 30 September.
75
2026-09-29 — Public three-outcome scenario sheet for the NIS deadline
High
Missed
Missed: no public scenario sheet appeared before the 30 September NIS deadline, nor a status report within 72 hours afterwards. On 2 October the press reported that, according to Forbes, the Mol–Gazprom talks had collapsed, while Mol says the process continues under an OFAC licence valid until 30 October.
76
2026-09-29 — Pre-drafted Hungarian consultation position for NATO Article 4 talks
Medium
Missed
Missed: by the 29 September deadline the week’s press carried no information on a written Hungarian position prepared in advance for consultations under NATO Article 4, even as tensions in the region kept rising.
77
2026-09-29 — Publishing the hail-suppression system’s impact data and the review’s mandate
High
Missed
Missed: by the 29 September deadline the week’s press carried no information on publication of the hail suppression system’s data or on the mandate of an independent review body.
78
2026-09-28 — Publishing the rotational curtailment order and its compensation rule in advance
High
Missed
Missed: by the 28 September deadline the week’s press carried no information on rotating supply restrictions and compensation for industrial consumers being set out in legislation.
79
2026-09-28 — Duty to justify heat-related transport and water-use exemptions
Medium
Missed
Missed: by the 28 September deadline the week’s press carried no information on public impact assessments for heat-related exemptions in transport and water use.
80
2026-09-25 — Single review list and pre-published transparency criteria
High
Missed
Missed: by 25 September neither a single list of the subsidy cases under transparency review nor a pre-set set of criteria had been published. The week brought only further one-off steps, such as the follow-up audit of the Fradiváros subsidy ordered on 25 September.
81
Institution-building cycle — Restoring universities’ access to EU research and mobility funding
Medium
Done
Done: on 13 October the Council of the EU lifted the 2022 conditionality measures, reopening Erasmus+ and Horizon Europe to the universities run by public-interest foundations. A public breakdown of funding by institution and programme has not yet appeared.
82
before the final vote — Three-scenario sensitivity annex to the budget amendment
High
Missed
Missed: on 19 October the National Assembly passed the 2026 budget amendment by 134 votes to 48, raising the deficit target to 7.5 per cent. The week’s press carried no sign that a sensitivity annex with baseline, adverse and favourable scenarios was attached before the final vote.
The watchlist refreshes weekly, every Sunday at 16:00. Measurement points are sourced from concrete deadlines and performance indicators called out in MIAK analyses.